Jakobi Meyers’ fantasy outlook and projection for 2022

What is Jakobi Meyers' fantasy outlook and projection for 2022, and should you look to draft him at his current ADP?

New England Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers is coming off the best campaign of his career, where he led the Patriots in receiving yards for the second consecutive season. Meyers would have done well to carve out any meaningful NFL role, let alone that of a starter. With Mac Jones now another year more experienced, what can fantasy football managers expect from Meyers in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy drafts?

Jakobi Meyers’ fantasy outlook for 2022

Meyers’ ascent from UDFA to the Patriots’ WR1 is both impressive for him and a bit of an indictment on the team’s receiving corps.

After it quickly became readily apparent that N’Keal Harry was not an NFL-caliber wide receiver, the Patriots needed someone to step up. Meyers was that guy. In 2020, he commanded a 23.2% target share. That increased to 24.4% in 2021.

Last season, Meyers averaged 11 PPR fantasy points per game, a 0.8 ppg increase on the previous year. Prior to 2021, Meyers’ claim to fame was his severe allergic reaction to touchdowns. He had none of them. It was a truly momentous occasion when Meyers finally scored in 2021. Even so, Meyers fell well short of his expected touchdown total for a guy with 867 receiving yards. He really should’ve scored five of them.

How the Patriots’ depth chart impacts Jakobi Meyers’ fantasy projection for the season

Meyers has proven to be pretty much a catch-and-fall-down wide receiver. He’s a reliable set of hands, but he’s not the most efficient. Last year, he averaged just 2.9 yards after the catch per reception, the eighth-lowest rate amongst wide receivers with at least 50 targets.

Entering the 2022 campaign, Meyers will look to continue building his rapport with Jones. The Patriots could certainly use a true WR1, but they didn’t get one. Their only additions were DeVante Parker and rookie burner Tyquan Thornton. Parker is the favorite to start opposite Meyers, but I would be surprised if Meyers did not retain his role as Jones’ primary target.

The Patriots are one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL

The biggest issue Meyers is facing is while he should maintain a high target share, the overall pie is not particularly large. The Patriots ran the ball at the seventh-highest rate last season. Jones attempted just 30.3 passes per game. Unless New England becomes more pass-heavy, Meyers’ ceiling isn’t much higher than what he did in 2021, plus a few more touchdowns.

Fantasy managers should consider Meyers a floor-based WR4. He’s the type of guy you put in your lineup who you know won’t get you zero. However, he’s never going to win you a week or make any sort of meaningful impact on a matchup. He’s there not to mess things up. While that has value in fantasy football, upside wins championships, and I just don’t see much with Meyers.

Meyers’ ADP for 2022

Meyers’ ADP is around 135th overall, as roughly the WR50-55. This is lower than his ppg finish in either of the past two seasons. In PFN’s 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Meyers sits 47th at the position and 118th overall.

No one is mistaking Meyers for a player with any sort of massive upside. At best, he can probably be a WR3 if the Patriots let their sophomore quarterback throw a little more this season.

I definitely prefer more upside with my late-round picks, but you can do worse than getting a WR3 at a WR5 price. Meyers is a fine selection but not necessarily one you’ll be excited to make.

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