Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the most exciting players to watch. After starting out the season as a backup, Gibbs surged to become one of the most valuable fantasy football assets.
Now with a more expensive price tag, should fantasy managers draft the Detroit Lions RB this season?
Jahmyr Gibbs’ Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Volume is king in fantasy football. A bet on Gibbs is a bet on efficiency. That’s inherently riskier than going with a guy you know is going to touch the ball a lot.
Gibbs only touched the ball 234 times in 2023. His 51.2% opportunity share was outside the top 30. For as great of a receiver as he is, Gibbs’ 14.1% target share was ninth.
Yet, knowing this, and being a firm believer in volume as king, I have Gibbs ranked ahead of Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor, two guys guaranteed to touch the ball more.
To buy into Gibbs as a borderline first-round pick, we need to believe the volume will go up at least a little bit. If it does, we are banking on Gibbs maintaining his elite efficiency.
Gibbs is one of the most explosive and dynamic running backs in recent memory. He averaged 5.4 yards per touch, eighth in the league, and evaded tackles per touch at a 23.9% clip, ninth in the league. An astounding 8.2% of his carries went for 15+ yards, the second-highest rate in the NFL.
The Lions love Gibbs. Training camp reports indicate Gibbs is working hard on improving his receiving, an area he already excelled at.
Furthermore, Gibbs wants to have 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards. Whether he actually does it is irrelevant — the fact that he set it as a goal and thinks he can is indicative of the team’s intent to put more work on his plate.
The Lions run a very consolidated offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are the top two target earners. Gibbs and David Montgomery are a 1-2 punch in the backfield. Those four players are going to handle, no pun intended, the “lion’s share” of the touches.
Gibbs’ touchdown upside is capped by Montgomery, but it’s not as if Gibbs struggled to score last season. From Week 7 onward, Gibbs scored in all but three games, including all three of his postseason contests.
Is Gibbs a Good Fantasy Pick?
If the Lions’ backfield looks exactly like it did last season, Gibbs will end up being slightly overpriced. His 16.1 fantasy points per game was good for an RB8 finish. His ADP is currently RB6, No. 13 overall. The threshold for RB1 production is usually what Gibbs did last season.
I believe Gibbs can get to 17-18 ppg on only a modest increase in touches. What adds to his appeal is the injury contingent upside.
If Montgomery gets hurt, Gibbs will see more volume. This isn’t a situation where Craig Reynolds is going to step into the Montgomery role. Sure, Reynolds will play more, but we got a glimpse of this last season when Montgomery was out. Gibbs handled 20 and 31 touches in the two games Montgomery missed that Gibbs was active for.
It is worth noting that Gibbs strained his hamstring during training camp. However, all indications are he will be ready for Week 1. Therefore, I am not downgrading him at all.
Gibbs is my RB4. I wouldn’t take him until the big three RBs and big five WRs are gone. Whether I went Gibbs over Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown is a case-by-case basis. Do not feel as though taking Gibbs as early as No. 9 overall is too high.