Jacksonville Jaguars WR Fantasy Outlooks: Should You Start Christian Kirk or Brian Thomas Jr. in Week 3 vs. Bills?

In Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars will face the Buffalo Bills as part of a Monday Night Football doubleheader. Which Jaguars receivers should be in your fantasy football team’s starting lineup? Let’s break down Jacksonville’s WR weapons.

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Christian Kirk Fantasy Outlook

It’s been a brutal start for Kirk (two catches on seven targets for 29 yards, negative points last week against the Browns for you non-PPR players out there), but the profile doesn’t look too dissimilar from what we’ve seen in the past.

• 2023: 66.5% slot usage and 11.7 expected PPR fantasy points per game
• 2024: 74.7% slot usage and 11.1 expected PPR fantasy points per game

I expect a return to basics in this spot against a Bills team that rarely blitzes. Kirk’s few targets have come deep downfield (aDOT: 17.7), something that Buffalo aims to take away (just ask those who started Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 1).

Kirk’s splits, 2023:

• Yards per route run when the defense blitzes: 1.81
• Yards per route run when the defense doesn’t blitz: 2.15

That may not seem like a huge difference, but it works opposite the trend of the other Jaguars receivers last year – Brian Thomas Jr. gives this offense a different look, but still. I’m sticking it out with Kirk and plugging him in over struggling bigger names like Terry McLaurin and Amari Cooper.

Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Outlook

Thomas’ first two targets of his career totaled six air yards – his next six have come 125 yards downfield. He’s not a one-trick pony, but it is pretty clear that the Jags have identified where their star rookie holds the most value.

I love their commitment to giving him chances, I just don’t love it this week. The Bills have allowed opponents to complete just two of 17 deep passes this season after being the second-most vulnerable downfield defense last season in terms of completion percentage (53.8%; NFL average: 43.4%). Like the rest of the NFL, Buffalo is encouraging you to beat them via paper cuts, and that isn’t the path for Thomas to crack your weekly lineup.

I’ll have Thomas over Kirk most weeks, but that’s not the case here. The kid is still an upside Flex play, but one that carries a wide range of outcomes that has me ranking him behind the emerging Jaxon Smith-Njigba.