This game we play can be difficult. Rostering the “right” players in fantasy football is a part of the equation, but without sound decision-making on a consistent basis, your team is going nowhere.
With that understanding, let’s look at the game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins and try to optimize lineups with players who are on your radar.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins
- Spread: Dolphins -3,5
- Total: 49.5
- Jaguars implied points: 23
- Dolphins implied points: 26.5
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Can Trevor Lawrence Return Great Value in a Shootout?
- Fantasy Points: 15.5
- Passing Yards: 221.0
- Passing TDs: 1.1
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 18.1
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
The Dolphins blitzed at the sixth-lowest rate a season ago, something that, along with the game script, gives Lawrence a path to an interesting upside. In 2023, he ranked 30th in fantasy points per blitzed pass attempt and 13th when not blitzed.
In Week 1 last season, Lawrence found himself with a different receiving core than he left the prior season with and in a game that cleared 50 total points. Sound familiar?
Lawrence finished the week as QB8. Projecting such a finish isn’t wise, but I think he finishes inside the top 15 at the position this week, which was higher than his ADP this summer.
The Dolphins’ stack will be popular in DFS. If you wanted to take your favorite piece of their offense as a bring back to a Jaguars stack, you can be drastically different than the field despite identifying the same game as the favorable one to load up on.
Is Tua Tagovailoa a Must Start in Week 1?
- Fantasy Points: 16.2
- Passing Yards: 239.6
- Passing TDs: 1.6
- Interceptions: 0.7
- Rushing Yards: 6.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
I don’t want to say it’s a flow chart situation when it comes to Miami’s lefty, but I’m not going to say it’s not. For his career, in games with over 25 passes thrown …
- Kickoff temperature 80+ degrees: 22.1 fantasy points per game
- Kickoff temperature <80 degrees: 14.7 fantasy points per game
For reference, QB2 last season averaged 21 fantasy ppg while QB21 averaged 14.7. We have ourselves a warm game, so you blindly plug in Tagovailoa, right?
Always a #FantasyFootball topic
Tagovailoa might get you Tua title game (three straight non-weather issues in Weeks 14-16) but Week 17 at CLE needs the be factored into the #FantasyFootball rankings process pic.twitter.com/twt4GTFvU4
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 15, 2024
I wouldn’t go that far, but when facing a defense that ranked in the bottom quarter of the league last season in pressure rate and opponent pass touchdown percentage, it’s easy to like the polarizing Dolphin as much as ever.
Step 1 in Travis Etienne Jr.’s True Breakout Season?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.5
- Rushing Yards: 63.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.5
- Receptions: 2.8
- Receiving Yards: 23.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
There isn’t a running back on your roster that you’re benching, so don’t get cute just because the Dolphins allowed the fifth-fewest yards per carry after contact last season. Through two years, we’ve seen Etienne do a bit of everything, and the idea behind a full-blown breakout would be him putting it all together for a magical three-month run.
Do I think that’s possible? Sure do. Believe it or not, as part of an inconsistent offense last season, he was the solo leader in rushing touchdowns of 20+ yards (the other two fantasy-viable RBs in this game and Breece Hall all tied for second).
We know he can catch the ball and explode out of the backfield. We also think we know that Jacksonville will want to keep Miami off the field.
Etienne is my RB7 this week, RB1 in this game.
Will the Regression Monster Bite De’Von Achane?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.7
- Rushing Yards: 56.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.6
- Receptions: 1.9
- Receiving Yards: 14.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Last season, we saw a running back reach 17.9 PPR fantasy points on eight occasions against the Jaguars, and that includes seeing both ends of a tandem do it to close the season (Tyjae Spears and Derrick Henry). Could we see something similar on Sunday?
It’s certainly possible. At the very least, you can feel good about Achane. In 11 of 15 games to close last season, a running back cleared 13 PPR points in this matchup, and given their respective ADPs, it’s clear that Achane is the favorite to be the lead producer in this backfield.
Skylar Thompson to Achane for a nice gain pic.twitter.com/BeSpF6DOtz
— FinCuts (@FinCuts) August 17, 2024
As a rookie, Achane either saw 3+ targets or ripped off a 25+ yard run in nine of 11 games. I can preach “regression” as much as I want to, but even as a skeptic, I’m playing him without much thought.
Can Raheem Mostert Continue To Score at an Elite Rate?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.1
- Rushing Yards: 46.1
- Rushing TDs: 0.4
- Receptions: 1.7
- Receiving Yards: 11.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Despite Achane’s emergence last season, Mostert played 56.4% of the snaps, a rate that mirrored his rate from 2022. Even with Jaylen Wright now in the mix, Mostert should be on the field for roughly half of the snaps of an elite offense. While carrying the scoring role, that locks him in as an RB2 (Mostert scored 21 times last season and had multiple red-zone touches in 13 of 15 games).
As Jonathan Taylor worked back from injury last season, the Colts gave both of their featured RBs 12+ touches, and both returned top-24 value at the position (Zack Moss was RB7 and Taylor RB21). That’s essentially how I see this playing out. Anyone with a piece of Miami’s backfield should feel just fine about their prospects to open the season.
Is Christian Kirk Underrated?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.0
- Receptions: 4.0
- Receiving Yards: 52.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
Jacksonville’s offense sort of struggled to sustain two viable receivers last season as it was often one of them, along with Evan Engram cracking fantasy lineups. I think there’s a decent chance that changes this season, which is why I have both primary wide receivers in Jacksonville inside my top 35 at the position.
Well, that and the projected shootout nature of this game.
We know Kirk can get open in a hurry, and I think that’ll create a nice floor against a Miami team that ranked second in pressure rate when not blitzing last season (39.3%, six full percentage points above league average). Kirk likely doesn’t win you your matchup this week, though I would be surprised if he came in well under expectations and set you behind.
Can Brian Thomas Jr. Break the DFS Slate?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.6
- Receptions: 3.5
- Receiving Yards: 52.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
I’m in — all the way in. This WR rookie class got plenty of deserved attention this summer, and I actually think some of the hype actually helped us get a bargain on Thomas.
With the bar set so high for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Thomas’ star didn’t shine as bright in terms of the media machine – that could change once the cleats hit the ground and the games count
Brian Thomas Jr.
(thread) pic.twitter.com/hJOabDQo0V
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 29, 2024
If you need the full Thomas love letter, check out either our Bold Takes or My Guys podcasts — I couldn’t choose, so he’s heavily featured in both.
As for this specific week, the ‘Fins were the fifth-worst red-zone defense last season, and that has me thinking Thomas could score in his NFL debut, something his LSU brethren in Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. both did.
I think you can Flex him now, I’m not going to wait on a profile that lines up this well.
Is Tyreek Hill Deserving of the WR1 Ranking?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 23.3
- Receptions: 8.0
- Receiving Yards: 108.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.7
Do I think he could beat Noah Lyles in a race? Probably not. But put both in pads, and I think the difference is even greater in Hill’s favor than it would be in Lyles’ without pads.
There you go; those are the types of thought exercises a Hill manager needs to go through because there is no question if you’re starting him (seven top-five finishes at the position in 2023).
Could Jaylen Waddle Start 2024 With a Matchup-Winning Performance?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.6
- Receptions: 5.2
- Receiving Yards: 70.1
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
After a slow start to 2023, Waddle was fine. We saw glimpses of the ceiling with a pair of WR1 finishes with Hill active, but those were offset by four finishes outside of the top 35 at the position.
I want to bet on the talent, but this offense isn’t structured to maximize his fantasy value. As a result of some difficult matchups for receivers I’d typically have ranked ahead of him, Waddle slides into my top 20 this week, the hope being that the Dolphins can score 30-ish points and pay off all of their assets.
Waddle’s mean production is fine to take on this week because of the upside he carries whenever he is on the field.
Can Evan Engram Continue To Be a Strong PPR Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.9
- Receptions: 4.9
- Receiving Yards: 45.2
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
I like Thomas’ potential as much as anyone, but there’s no denying that, until proven otherwise, Engram is the man best suited to thrive in this Lawrence-led offense.
Engram finished 2023 with the second-most catches ever by a tight end in a single season (114), doing so in a very consistent and efficient manner. I’m projecting a little less volume but a little more scoring equity in 2024, something that could land him among the top five tight ends this week against a Miami defense that allowed the third-highest red-zone completion percentage last season (65.5%).
Should Jonnu Smith Be Added Before Kickoff?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.8
- Receptions: 2.9
- Receiving Yards: 30.9
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
In today’s NFL, it’s hard to be as concentrated through the air as the Dolphins were last season, which is why Smith is of interest to me long term. I’m not playing him this week, but it’s not hard to see him working his way into a 4-6 target role.
And if that’s the case, Smith will be a viable option when the Dolphins face a stingy secondary.
I don’t roster two tight ends anywhere. If you punted the position and roster Smith, you’ve committed to him, and I think that’s fine. If you punted the position and Smith is a free agent, I’d make sure to monitor his usage this weekend and potentially make a move if the snap share is stable.