The Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to take on the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 9. Here are our betting picks and predictions for this matchup from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 31, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5, 45.5)
Katz: I’ve had success with longest-completion props this season attacking specific defenses. Taking the longest completions unders against the Bills has been a winning formula. It also appears longest completion overs against the Jacksonville Jaguars might be viable as well. It worked last week with Jordan Love. Let’s try it again.
The Jaguars are allowing a 56% deep-ball completion rate, the third-worst in the league. They are a pass-funnel defense with their -0.3 defensive EPA per dropback, the worst in the NFL.
Hurts has seven completions on the season of 36+ yards (all were 40+). He has at least one in five of his seven starts this season. Between A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, one of them should be able to get behind the coverage this week.
Pick: Jalen Hurts longest completion over 35.5 yards
Soppe: Are the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles the inverse of the 2023 Eagles?
Philadelphia seems to be rounding into form (85-36 scoring differential during their three-game win streak), and I think that’s likely to continue against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 28th in opponent scoring rate, 30th in average drive distance, and 31st in turnover rate. If they can (finally) score early and put the Jags in a catch-up spot (25th in three-and-out rate), this could get out of hand in a hurry.
Hurts has covered 19 times as a favorite, and overs are 13-6 in those games with the Eagles averaging 29.8 points per game in those spots (28+ points in each of the past nine home covers under the leadership of Hurts). I don’t need a trend like that to feel good about getting creative, but it certainly doesn’t hurt.
Pick: Eagles -7.5 with Eagles over 26 points
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Jacksonville Jaguars
Team: After winning seven of eight games in the middle of last season, Jacksonville is 3-11 in the 14 games since
QB: Trevor Lawrence’s yards per pressured pass attempt are down 26.6% from a season ago.
Offense: The Jags have won the time of possession battle just once (Week 7 vs. Patriots). Last week was the fourth time they failed to have the ball for even 27 minutes this season.
Defense: Last week, Jacksonville held the Packers out of the end zone on four red zone trips (66.7%, their rate in Weeks 1-7: 21.7%).
Fantasy: Tank Bigsby has looked explosive at times, but he needs help – in three of his past four games, he’s averaged less than two feet per carry before contact.
Betting: The Jags are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games, and each of their past four failures to cover came by at least 11.5 points.
Philadelphia Eagles
Team: No offensive line allows pressure more often when not blitzed than the Eagles (44.1%, league average: 31.6%).
QB: The Eagles have won three straight games – in those games, Jalen Hurts has -2 red zone passing yards.
Offense: From 2022-23, only the Cowboys, Chiefs, and 49ers scored more first-quarter points than the Eagles. This season, Philadelphia has yet to score in the first 15 minutes. If you’re curious, their lowest-scoring season for first-quarter points over the past 20 years came in 2012 (31 points).
Defense: The Eagles hadn’t allowed an opponent to convert over 46.2% of their third downs through seven weeks. In Week 8, the Bengals went 10-of-13 (76.9%), though part of that can be attributed to a one-sided game (20-point win).
Fantasy: Jalen Hurts had his 13th game with multiple rushing touchdowns since 2021, the most in the league (Derrick Henry ranks second with 11 and James Conner third with seven over that stretch).
Betting: After Halloween, since 2020, the Eagles are 12-8-1 ATS (60%) at home and 4-16 ATS (20%) on the road. They head on the road for three of their next four after this game.