The Jacksonville Jaguars were 4-8 when they rode into Nashville for their first divisional matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Since then, they’ve won four straight games, while Tennessee finds themselves in an unbelievable six-game skid.
Doug Pederson’s Jaguars are about to make one of the most unbelievable comebacks in history if they beat Tennessee on Saturday night. But if they can’t pull off the incredible comeback, is there still hope for Jacksonville to find themselves in the playoffs? The answer, it turns out, is yes.
Update Jan. 7, 11:10 p.m. ET: Jaguars Win AFC South
After the Jaguars’ win over the Titans on Saturday Night Football, they have officially locked up the AFC South and have made the playoffs. Tennessee has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Jaguars Playoff Scenarios
Jacksonville’s path teeters all the way from simple to complex to follow, depending on the team’s outcome Saturday night.
If they win or tie, the Jaguars are in as AFC South division champions and will be the fourth seed in the conference. In that scenario, they’ll face the Chargers or Ravens. If the Chargers beat the Broncos, that is who Jacksonville will face. If the Chargers lose and the Ravens beat the Bengals, they’ll face Baltimore instead.
But if Jacksonville somehow loses, their odds fall to 18%. They could still make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the AFC. Here’s how:
- Jaguars lose
- Patriots lose
- Dolphins lose
- Steelers lose
Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Odds
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Jaguars currently have a 79% chance of making the playoffs. They also have a 75% chance to win the division, meaning their model believes their chances to beat Tennessee in Week 18 are quite good.
But nothing is guaranteed. Just one season ago, the Indianapolis Colts had a 97% chance of making the playoffs with two weeks to go. The league is hilariously unpredictable, even when circumstances seem clear. In fact, the Jaguars were the ones who played spoiler last season.
Jaguars Schedule: How They Got Here
Jacksonville was a bit of a media darling early in the season. Even though their record didn’t necessarily indicate it, many advanced metrics believed that the Jaguars were a good football team. Red-zone struggles and untimely turnovers hurt, and their defense is still a work in progress, but there was hope for Jacksonville.
The 2022 NFL season has been highlighted by streaks. Teams have gone on massive winning and losing streaks, and the Jaguars are among that group. They lost five straight games against the Eagles, Texans, Colts, Giants, and Broncos. Three of those losses came against some of the worst teams in the league.
In their four-game winning streak leading up to Week 18, they’ve beaten the Titans, Cowboys, Jets, and Texans. They beat the Ravens by a point in Week 12 and were dismantled by the Lions in Week 13 during their own incredible run of six wins in seven games.
Jacksonville finishes its season against the Titans for the division crown on Saturday Night Football. A win can only further the increasingly glowing narrative surrounding Trevor Lawrence.