Isaiah Hodgins Fantasy Projections: Should You Draft Hodgins in Fantasy This Year?

    After years of anonymity, he thrived in 2022, but what are Isaiah Hodgins' fantasy projections in 2023, and should you draft him at his ADP?

    As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are New York Giants WR Isaiah Hodgins’ fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.

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    Isaiah Hodgins’ 2023 Fantasy Projection

    If you had learned at the start of last season that the Giants would reach the playoffs and that Hodgins would be one of the reasons why, which fact would have surprised you more?

    New York was ranked in the bottom third among Super Bowl contenders last summer. Kenny Golladay, Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, and rookie Wan’Dale Robinson appeared to have the top four slots locked up. Darius Slayton was an experienced option at No. 5. Richie James loomed.

    Meanwhile, Hodgins was an afterthought in Buffalo, having earned merely four offensive snaps in his first two seasons. The 2020 sixth-round draft pick hadn’t even earned a target. By midseason, the Bills were finished with him, placing him on waivers. By that point, Hodgins had secured four of six targets for 41 yards.

    The Giants, facing a decimated receiving corps, scooped him up and turned him loose. And in his first outing with his new club, Hodgins caught a first-down pass on third-and-seven, extending what became a touchdown drive that helped propel New York to victory.

    The rest is history. Including the playoffs, he caught a whopping 79% of his targets for the Giants while reeling in five scores. He committed zero drops.

    For a castoff receiver with virtually no NFL future, Hodgins did more than just about anyone in his position has done in years. And from a fantasy perspective, he hit 14+ points in four of his final five regular-season games. It was a tremendous showing, no matter how you slice it.

    The question, then, is whether he can produce an encore performance in 2023. The Giants are no longer dealing with the same receiver desperation. They’ve added high-flying rookie Jalin Hyatt and underrated veteran Parris Campbell. Darius Slayton is still there. And while Sterling Shepard and Wan’Dale Robinson are coming off season-ending injuries, their presence will officially make this corps “crowded.”

    In the short term, Hodgins might carve out a 3-5 target role, which he might convert into 4-6 fantasy points per game, barring a touchdown. But longer term, his future on this team is murky. Hyatt and Robinson represent the future, and Hodgins’ ceiling hinges on serving as a top-three receiver.

    That might happen a handful of times in 2023, and that’s not enough to assure him 40+ catches, 400+ receiving yards, or 3+ touchdowns. He’s a low-floor, low-ceiling option.

    Should You Draft Isaiah Hodgins This Year?

    Underdog Fantasy currently lists Hodgins with an ADP of WR73. Let’s not overthink this. As highlighted above, Hodgins won’t bring the boom of most top-100 fantasy WRs. Yes, he was terrific down the stretch last season. But that was largely due to a confluence of events that propelled him to a prominent role.

    That combination of circumstances is unlikely to materialize in 2023. Sure, it could happen. But the 2022 Giants experienced a rash of injuries and roster moves that are beyond unusual. When the No. 5 and No. 6 WRs become fantasy starters, it’s not normal.

    Hodgins was a great story last season. Truly, he deserves to be remembered among Giants fans as a largely forgotten talent who stepped up when this franchise needed him most. And now, the team is moving on with higher-upside talents. Hodgins will be lucky to finish in the top 90.

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