The Indianapolis Colts will face the New York Jets. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Colts skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Anthony Richardson, QB
Last week started about as poorly as it could for Joe Flacco (two interceptions, including a pick-six, on his first five passes), and yet the Colts didn’t feel the need to insert Anthony Richardson.
But what’s this? Richardson is now the man at the controls of this offense the rest of the way?
I was replaced last season as the cooker of our turkey at Thanksgiving and my brother stepped in.
He burned it.
And now, after watching him fail in spectacular fashion, the responsibility is back in my hands. Am I any more qualified after watching him show me exactly what not to do?
Is Richardson in a better spot now after watching Joe Flacco make a mess of Week 10?
The athletic profile hasn’t gone anywhere and that has him challenging my top-15 this week as a bet on his tools and the Jets’ struggles. They’ve played two games against a top-notch athlete at the QB position and while Richardson is not Josh Allen or Kyler Murray, it’s worth noting that those two, when pressured, found success in bunches in this matchup:
- 13 pressured attempts
- 10 completions
- 1 touchdown
- 142.1 passer rating
I’m not shying away from Richardson in DFS tournaments with top-heavy payouts.
Joe Flacco, QB
I wasn’t sure that Joe Flacco was going to make it through Week 10 as the team’s starting quarterback, not after two of his first five passes were intercepted. But give the veteran credit for hanging in there.
And now give him a spot on the bench.
I think this is the right move for the Colts and with that belief, cutting Flacco is a reasonable move in Superflex leagues if you value the roster spot. If you have a spot to burn, I’d hang on through this week just as a precaution.
Jonathan Taylor, RB
It didn’t take Jonathan Taylor long to take advantage of a strong matchup against the Bills last week, as he ripped off a 59-yard gain in the first quarter and cleared 100 yards on the ground before halftime. He now has the fourth-most rushing yards in Colts history, and I think he’s a long way from done.
He gets another vulnerable AFC East run defense this week (bottom-10 in EPA and against third-down rushing attempts), and after Joe Flacco was intercepted on two of his first five passes last week, a conservative, Taylor-centric offense this week wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
JT hasn’t really won you many weeks by himself (one top-10 finish), but with five top-20 finishes, he’s doing his part in keeping your team competitive. He’s an RB1 in all formats for me this week, and for leagues that extend into Week 18, we could be looking at a late-season run that alters leagues (Week 17-18: at Giants, vs. Jaguars).
Tyler Goodson, RB
Tyler Goodson’s touchdown catch was nice to see, and holding him as a Jonathan Taylor handcuff is fine as long as you’re not operating with any hopes of stand-alone value.
In Week 10’s loss, Goodson was on the field for just 13.1% of Indianapolis’ offensive snaps, a role that is very rarely going to return anything close to value. Goodson has established himself as the secondary Colts RB to hold over Trey Sermon, but he’s far from a must-hold if you need to add immediate production to the back end of your roster.
Alec Pierce, WR
Alec Pierce’s final stat line (4-81-1) against the Bills was encouraging, and if you started him, congratulations.
Don’t count on it.
Not only was Joe Flacco far from consistent, but he didn’t get Pierce fed until the game was decided (33 yards and a touchdown came on the final drive of the one-sided contest). Garbage time isn’t something I expect to be a part of Sunday’s game against the Jets, making Pierce’s 22.5 aDOT for the season an auto-fade.
Through 10 weeks, the Jets are the ninth-best defense in terms of opponent deep completion percentage and the second-best at preventing deep touchdown passes. Pierce has yet to show the ability to consistently earn targets; in this spot, the risk far outweighs the slim chance that he connects on a splash play that earns him double-digit points.
Josh Downs, WR
Josh Downs has a boring name and plays for a spotty offense. He’s unlikely to make a play that leads “SportsCenter,” and he’s not going to have the game Ja’Marr Chase had in Week 10 that decided matchups before they really began.
But he’s great and should be started with the utmost confidence. He put a nine-yard touchdown on the turf last week, and that hurt your chances of winning that matchup, but it’s not impacting what I think of Downs moving forward.
Instead, I’m buying into the game script that had Downs targeted on four of Joe Flacco’s first seven passes. Instead, I’m buying into the player who has posted a role with 14.5+ expected PPR points in three straight and in six of his past seven.
The Jets’ defense remains the strength of the team, and that might only ramp up Downs’ role. Flacco showed last week that he is more than capable of making poor decisions, something that could lead to a conservative/thoughtful approach this weekend. The Jets are one of three teams yet to intercept a slot pass this season, making balls thrown to Downs come with less risk than normal.
I have him ranked as a top-20 receiver this week and moving forward. The Colts get the Giants in Week 17 during your fantasy Super Bowl. I think Downs is going to be on more than a few championship rosters when all is said and done.
Michael Pittman Jr., WR
With just two catches on 10 targets over the past two weeks, Michael Pittman Jr. has successfully worked his way out of my weekly top 30 with relative ease when at full strength, something that he is clearly not at after sitting Week 10 (back/finger).
I was hopeful that the return to Joe Flacco on a full-time basis would help, and it still might. But we have to see him prove it first as Josh Downs has established himself as the top receiver in Indy. Pittman has been targeted on under 20% of his routes in five straight games (2023: targeted on 27.7% of routes), a role that, without much in the way of per-target upside, isn’t going to get it done.
I’m not turning off the lights on MPJ altogether, but he has to sit down and think about what he has done to fantasy rosters through two months. We managers have trust issues, and it’s going to be difficult to recover from what we have (more accurately, haven’t) gotten through 10 weeks.
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets Trends
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Sunday’s 30-20 loss to the Bills snapped a streak of 11 straight Colt games being decided by a single possession.
QB: Joe Flacco threw two interceptions on 135 pass attempts entering Week 10. Against the Bills on Sunday, two of his first five passes were picked off.
Offense: The Colts allow pressure 51.2% of the time when they face a blitz, the second-highest rate in the league (NFL average: 41.5%).
Defense: Indianapolis is the second-best team in getting pressure when blitzing (51.2%, trailing only the Packers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs dropped a touchdown on Sunday, but he caught at least six passes for the fifth time in seven games.
Betting: The Colts are 7-2 ATS (77.8%) in their past nine road games played in November.
New York Jets
Team: The Jets are 2-0 on Thursdays with a +29 point differential but 1-5 with a -50 point differential on Sundays. They only have Sunday games remaining this season.
QB: In Weeks 1-4, Aaron Rodgers completed 52% of his passes when under duress, a rate that has dropped to 37.5% since.
Offense: New York is the second-best team in terms of the pressure rate allowed for picking up the blitz (32% of blitzes create QB pressure; only the Bucs have been better through 10 weeks).
Defense: The Jets are turning over the opposition on just 6.8% of drives (27th).
Fantasy: Breece Hall owns the worst boom/bust rate of 26 qualified running backs this season (25% of his carries have failed to gain yardage while only 11.8% have gained at least 10 yards).
Betting: Overs are 12-4 in Aaron Rodgers’ last 16 starts in Week 11 or later in the regular season.