IDP Fantasy Football Busts 2023: Players To Avoid Include Aaron Donald, Fred Warner, and Others

Identifying the top IDP fantasy football busts can help you dodge disaster. This article looks at five players that might not be worth their draft price.

The most difficult thing in fantasy football may be coming back from drafting a player not worth their draft price. For various reasons, players can be labeled as an IDP fantasy football bust, but this is talking solely about performance when on the field. Sometimes perception does not match up with reality, especially in IDP.

Who are some players to dodge in IDP drafts for 2023? These players may still be solid IDP options but might be easier to find comparable production in other spots. Let’s dive into players who you may want to consider letting the rest of your league draft this coming season.

Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.

2023 IDP Fantasy Football Busts

We’ll examine five players who are being ranked within the top 24 at their position (all are actually within the top 10) who are unlikely to live up to their draft costs. For anyone new to IDP, this is the scoring system used to discuss these players.

Since IDP does not have good consensus ADP data to look at, this article will use FantasyPros‘ IDP rankings. To be considered a bust, these players will fail to meet their projected draft price.

Aaron Donald, DL, Los Angeles Rams

Starting this off with a bang, let’s talk about Aaron Donald. FantasyPros’ consensus DL ranks has Donald as the DL9 overall. In the 11 games Donald played in 2022, he had just five sacks, down from the 12.5+ sack totals he’d had each of the prior four seasons.

Donald also just isn’t as young and unstoppable as he was (32 years old). While not super old, Donald likely needs more help around him to protect him and see more 1-on-1s. Instead, the Rams will be trotting out young and inexperienced players around him. Hard to bet against a talent like Donald, but he seems unlikely to cover his draft cost.

Matthew Judon, DL, New England Patriots

In his first two seasons in Foxboro, Matthew Judon had posted 12.5 sacks in 2021 and 15.5 in 2022. If able to repeat this, then he’ll be under-drafted as the consensus DL10.

This performance feels less likely to repeat, though, starting with a continued ascent of young players around Judon. Josh Uche has already made a name for himself across the defense.

MORE: Top Defenses To Draft in Fantasy Football 2023

The big reason to highlight is that Judon continues to tail off as he wears down over the year. In the past two seasons, from Weeks 1 through 11, Judon posted 10.5 and 13 sacks, respectively. From Week 12 on, those numbers were just two and 2.5 sacks.

Even if he performs at consensus, Judon’s not someone to rely on come fantasy playoffs, but he could easily tail off more in 2023.

Fred Warner, LB, San Francisco 49ers

Fred Warner checks in as the consensus LB10, so this one feels likely to ruffle some feathers. Working backwards from 2022, Warner has finished as the LB31, 22, 18, and 10 over the last four years. Now he’s changing coordinators again and is expected to bounce back to 2019 levels.

So much of this ranking is based solely on Warner’s stature in the league. Warner is an elite NFL linebacker, but for fantasy, he’s been the LB2 on his team in each of the last two seasons.

IDP Fantasy Football Busts 2023: Players To Avoid Include Aaron Donald, Fred Warner, and Others

Why draft Warner at LB10 costs when teammate Dre Greenlaw likely outscores him and goes as LB12? Greenlaw is also well ahead of Warner in our IDP rankings.

Logan Wilson, LB, Cincinnati Bengals

Another consensus top-10 linebacker, Logan Wilson checks in at LB7 — he’s even that high up in our rankings as a young ascending talent with the potential to break out. However, Wilson’s last two seasons have had him finish as LB28 and LB27, respectively, as a full-time starter.

This might be a bigger indictment of how big of a tier there is after the elite guys. In fact, waiting for a few rounds to come away with Ernest Jones or Nakobe Dean might be a better bet.

Wilson has gone from 33 to 100 to 123 total tackles. To pay off drafting him early over Jones or Dean later, he needs closer to 100 solo tackles and 150 total. I’m not sure he gets there.

Antoine Winfield Jr., DB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Putting the guy who was DB2 in 2021 and DB5 in 2022 as a bust is a scary place. He’s also the consensus DB8, so he’s not being wildly drafted, either.

So why is Antoine Winfield Jr. considered a bust? Alignment opportunity in 2023.

MORE: IDP Fantasy Football Sleepers To Draft 2023

Winfield is capable of playing anywhere in the defensive backfield. New teammate Ryan Neal plays at his best in the box. So expect more Winfield at FS in 2023, which is less ideal for stability in tackles.

In 2021, Winfield played deep and was the DB2. But that was with a strong Tom Brady-led offense that teams had to keep up with. Given the context of his alignment and team expectations, Winfield has much more volatility in 2023.

Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast!

Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review!

Related Articles