The Houston Texans will face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The Texans are carrying Super Bowl aspirations, while the Colts are hoping simply to get quarterback Anthony Richardson to live up to his potential.
For all information about NFL betting and fantasy football, this is a one-stop shop for the Texans vs. Colts season-opening matchup.
Texans at Colts Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
- Moneyline: Texans -148, Colts +124
- Total: 48.5
This is one of the hardest matchups to pick of the week, in my opinion.
The Houston Texans are a preseason darling this season after making a surprise playoff run last season behind C.J. Stroud’s remarkable rookie year. Now, with veteran additions like Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter, the Texans are a trendy Super Bowl pick in Year 2 of Stroud/head coach DeMeco Ryans.
But a divisional matchup in Week 1 is scary.
Over the last 10 years, Week 1 underdogs when playing a division rival are 35-12-2 ATS. When they’re home underdogs, their ATS record improves to 13-4-1.
Despite that trend, however, I’m not confident enough in picking the Colts, and the biggest reason is the uncertainty around Anthony Richardson.
Richardson has a ton of upside as a franchise quarterback, but currently, there are too many unknowns with him. Since high school, Richardson has only started in 17 games combined in college and the NFL, meaning he is still very raw as he enters his second season in the league.
This will be a fun game but one I’m passing on making a bet at the moment.
Prediction: Texans 27, Colts 24
Pick: Pass
Texans at Colts Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
- Channel: CBS
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, CBS All-Access
- Radio Stations: SportsRadio 610, 93.5 & 107.5 The Fan
- Starting QBs: C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson
After the Bill O’Brien regime’s downfall, the Texans played putrid football for three years, with a combined record of 11-38-1 from 2020 through 2022. However, Ryans’ hiring, who came from a successful franchise in San Francisco, marked a shift in the football operations in Houston. With a new face of the franchise heading in after drafting Stroud, it was time to build around the young signal-caller.
The Texans saw the fruits of their decisions as Stroud and the Texans’ offense thrived in 2023, winning the AFC South and even making the playoffs for the first time since 2019. Now, with a season under everyone’s belt, Houston has made even more moves to build around Stroud this offseason.
As far as their divisional rival goes, the Colts are eager to see Anthony Richardson hit the field again in the regular season after his rookie year ended just four games in due to a shoulder injury. The second-year QB appeared in two preseason matchups, completing 10 of his 18 passes for 111 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
While he only rushed twice for four yards, he was likely told to take it easy with rushing production to keep Richardson healthy for the regular season. However, with Jonathan Taylor under contract, the Colts will have to let the QB loose once the season starts to see what the rushing attack looks like with their QB1 and RB1 on the field simultaneously.
The Colts coaching staff and fans might get a bit scared watching Richardson take off, but with how athletic the QB is, removing his rushing ability would hinder just how much of an effect he can have on the offense. The goal should be teaching him when to get down and what chances to take.
Texans at Colts Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud: During his magical rookie season, Stroud threw for 648 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions against this vulnerable Colts defense. Indy simply had no answer for Nico Collins in those games (he turned 18 targets into 16 catches for 341 yards and a pair of touchdowns), and you could easily argue that they will be even more difficult to stop this time around.
Not only does Stroud now have Stefon Diggs. Not only does Stroud likely have a more stable running game (in those two games, Houston’s leading rusher averaged just 2.4 yards per carry). Stroud also has a high likelihood of finding himself in a shootout environment.
Anthony Richardson was injured during the first meeting and missed the second, totaling just 10 pass attempts across the two contests. If the Colts are as potent on the offensive end as I believe they will be, this game could cruise into the 50s and produce two of the five highest-scoring signal callers for the week.
Anthony Richardson: Richardson’s stock was on the rise all summer long, so if you landed him, you’re a believer and playing him regardless of the words I put on paper.
You’re going to be right more often than not, and I think you hit it big in Week 1.
I’m of the belief that Richardson will get his rushing numbers regardless of the matchup. NBA teams can’t stop Steph Curry from launching 3s, and MLB teams can’t routinely retire Aaron Judge. Richardson’s physical profile creates, in my opinion, a similar level of inevitably. With that as a baseline, any week in which he projects as an asset throwing the ball, he’s a true threat to pace the position in fantasy production.
Last season, the Texans allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and saw 70.8% of opponent yards come through the air (the fifth-highest rate). The injury to Josh Downs is less than ideal, but we did see Richardson execute the scripted offense at a high level this offseason. If there was ever a game where this coaching staff could plan out a large percentage of the game plan, it’s Week 1, with all the time in the world to prepare.
He’s a Tier 1 QB this week. The Richardson experience will include valleys, but I think you’re loving life with a big number to start his second season.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon: We know who Mixon is as a player, and while the lack of upside is a pain, the reasonable stability to open the season slots him into fantasy lineups across the board.
Let the record show that I was lower on him than most coming into the season, and I stand by that (Houston saw their close-game run rate fall from 47.7% through eight weeks to 39.3% for the remainder of the fantasy season as Stroud’s star ascended), but I have him as RB16 this week against a Colts defense that allowed a touchdown once every 27.3 running back carries (fourth-highest).
Efficiency has never been Mixon’s calling card, and I worry about his work in the passing game when it comes to sustaining upside. It’s getting a little cute to get this far ahead of the trade market, but the Texans should score over 100 points on the field in September (Colts, Bears, Vikings, and Jaguars), potentially being a tide that lifts all boats in the short term.
Be careful. A late bye (Week 14), a tough finale (Chiefs and Ravens in Weeks 16-17), and the AFC East gauntlet on the schedule all create a worrisome floor. There’s a world in which Mixon is an RB1 heading into October and creates a selling window to better your chances of winning a title; you heard it here first.
Jonathan Taylor: The Texans were stout against the run last season, allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs — numbers that are even more astounding when you remember that they were lit up by the Colts.
- Week 2, Zack Moss: 18 carries for 88 yards and one touchdown
- Week 18, Taylor: 30 carries for 188 yards and one touchdown
We enter this season with a healthy version of Taylor and if the past has taught us anything, that gives him a chance to pace the position in scoring. In his last two Week 1 games, he has averaged 31 opportunities (rushes + targets) and six red-zone touches.
You spent an early pick on Taylor, and even against a run defense trending in the right direction, you should feel good about getting RB1 returns.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins: Collins is going to rank higher for me than for you most weeks – get used to it.
Collins was the second-most efficient receiver in yards per route run last season. Collins was the second-best receiver in terms of fantasy points over expectations last season. He gave us top-5 production at the position five times last season, a year in which he was working into his WR1 role with a rookie under center.
Now, his role is defined, and his QB is viewed as an MVP favorite and not an inexperienced prospect. I’ll step off my Collins soapbox, but the case is straightforward. As for this matchup, all he did was torch the Colts for 16 catches, 341 yards, and two touchdowns on his 18 targets.
The Colts were a bottom-10 team in defensive success rate, and they weren’t confident enough in the backend of their secondary to bring the heat and speed up opposing signal callers (third-lowest blitz rate). If you’re telling me that C.J. Stroud is going to be able to relax in the pocket in a game that is on my shortlist for bets when it comes to the highest-scoring contest of Week 1 – I’ll take my chances with his rising star.
You drafted Collins as a starter, and you’re starting him with confidence, There’s no news there. What I would caution against is the instinct to consider selling high should he post a big number – it won’t be the last time.
Stefon Diggs: Among the most interesting storylines of the first week (for that matter, the first month) of the season is the usage of Diggs. Will he be used as he was for the majority of his time in Buffalo? Will Houston elect to tier their receiver routes – Dell runs deep, Collins a mix of everything, and Diggs more shallow? Was the late-season decline in 2023 a blip on the radar or a red flag?
We will get those answers with time, and until then, he’s going to occupy my “you can Flex him, but he’s not a must-play” tier of receiver. Sorry for the long name and some fence-sitting, but I’m a straight shooter, and the honest truth is that we aren’t sure what his role is going to look like just yet.
Of course, I have my guesses. Last season, the Bills were beating their head against a wall with their WR1. Instead of adapting to what they saw on the field, they, more-or-less, kept his role the same and prayed the production would resurface. In the second half of the season, he didn’t stop running deeper routes (his aDOT dropped just 5.1%, well within the range of expected variance over a small sample) despite a lack of success on such plays.
- Weeks 1-10: 58.6% catch rate on deep passes
- Weeks 11-18: 20% catch rate on deep passes
We know Stroud wants to punish defenses down the field, and we know he had the weapons to do so before Diggs was acquired. If they elect to leverage his experience and route running, he could have a very successful season that mirrors something like peak Diontae Johnson. If not, we could be looking at a frustrating player who struggles to string productive weeks together on a weekly basis.
I have confidence that Houston will put the pieces together with time, but expecting another season with over 1,100 yards and at least eight touchdowns, something he did every season in Buffalo, is dangerous. Both he and Dell are going to live in that fringe top-30 range for me at the position until we have a better feel as to the quantity (and quality) of targets that both are seeing.
Tank Dell: I was one of the many who doubted Dell after a nice preseason performance last August, writing it off as simply a nice prospect making plays against inferior competition.
As it turns out, even elite competition had a problem all season with the third-round pick out of Houston (709 yards and seven scores in 11 games). Dell’s slight frame (165 pounds) didn’t stop him from earning 10+ targets on four occasions last season or averaging 15.1 yards per catch.
Given his development during the season, there is plenty of reason to think he can be an outlier at his size (DeVonta Smith is the only sub-170-pound receiver with a 100-target season over the past decade). That said, he did get injured to close last season, and he was held under 60 yards in six games a season ago.
His first impactful fantasy game did come against these Colts and it came basically with him winning on only one type of route.
Beginning to look at Week 1 #FantasyFootball matchups. Tank Dell gave us this route tree in Week 2 against Indy.
Doesn't look great, but he still produced 7-72-1.
He's better now and the Texans threaten in more ways. What stat line do you think he opens the season with? pic.twitter.com/9YcGYzqsN1
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 27, 2024
I like what he brings to the table and am encouraged to watch him grow alongside Stroud, but with an uptick in target competition, I do have my concerns about labeling him as a locked-and-loaded WR2 from the jump this season.
You can plug him in as your Flex and embrace this game’s high point total. That said, I would still prefer the other light receiver (Smith) and would side with receivers like Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, or even Brian Thomas Jr. – receivers who I feel I have a better read for their Week 1 role.
Michael Pittman Jr.: There is certainly a risk that comes with betting on Richardson as a passer, but I don’t think you have to worry about his WR1. Pittman led the position with 51 catches within five yards of the scrimmage last season, and while I think he sees his aDOT expand a bit this season, a reasonable floor should remain.
You could argue that DK Metcalf or Brandon Aiyuk has a higher ceiling this week than Pittman – I’m happy to side with the elevated floor to open the season, and that is why I have Indy’s WR1 inside my top 15 at the position this week.
Adonai Mitchell, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs: I’ve grouped all three of these secondary options together because there will be weeks to chase their specific roles. As we gather data on how this offense looks under Richardson, I’ll feel better about my ability to handicap the target distribution – for the short term, I’m not playing any of them.
Downs (ankle) was injured early in August at practice and could be held out of this game. In theory, that should increase your confidence in the remaining receivers, but there is much more overlap in what Downs and Pittman do than the downfield roles of Pierce or Mitchell.
Only three defenses allowed more completions on bombs (25+ air yards) than the Texans last season. If you’re stuck in a bind in a really deep league, Mitchell and Pierce both have one-catch potential to pay off your decision, though that’s not a role that you should be chasing in average-sized leagues.
I’ll be keeping a close eye on the usage of Pierce vs. Mitchell, though it won’t be with any Week 1 lineup investment tied to either.
Tight Ends
Dalton Schultz: I don’t expect Schultz to ever occupy an “exciting” role in this loaded offense, but the window is open for some PPR value, and this could be a spot for him to push into the top 12 at the position.
The Colts allowed the sixth-most yards per short completion in 2023 (7.8) and if Stroud is truly hellbent on throwing deep more this season, it’s easy to envision a situation in which Indianapolis plays a shell defense that encourages him to check down.
For his career, Schultz has seen 78.9% of his receptions coming on passes thrown less than 10 yards downfield, a role I very much expect him to occupy with Collins and Dell creating panic down the field. Diggs is a threat to absorb plenty of usage around the line of scrimmage, but I’ll bet on that connection taking a little time to develop, making the early season the time to explore using Schultz if you’re in a bind.
WANT MORE? READ: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Texans at Colts Key Stats To Know
Texans
Team: The Texans had the second most defensive penalties last season (48). Only the Browns had more.
QB: Houston saw their close-game run rate fall from 47.7% through eight weeks to 39.3% for the remainder of the fantasy season as Stroud’s star ascended
Offense: During his magical rookie season, Stroud threw for 648 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions against this vulnerable Colts defense.
Defense: The Texans were stout against the run last season, allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs. These numbers are even more astounding when you remember that they were lit up by the Colts.
Fantasy: Stefon Diggs struggled to convert deep passes as last season wore on: Weeks 1-10, Diggs had a 58.6% catch rate on deep passes. Weeks 11-18, he had a 20% catch rate on deep passes.
Betting: The Texans had 10 under tickets cash last season under C.J. Stroud, tied for the third most by a rookie QB over the past decade.
Colts
Team: The Colts haven’t won the division or finished last in nine consecutive seasons. They last won it in 2014.
QB: Anthony Richardson played essentially three games worth of snaps last season. If you extend his numbers to a full 17-game season: 4,041 yards of offense (passing + rushing) and 40 total TDs
Offense: The Colts were 23rd in red zone efficiency last season… teams with premier mobile QBs (BUF, PHI, BAL) all ranked inside the top 10.
Defense: The Colts blitzed just 17.3% of the time last season, the third-lowest rate in the league (NFL average: 26%).
Fantasy: Michael Pittman led the wide receiver position with 51 catches within five yards of the scrimmage last season.
Betting: Over the past two seasons, the Colts are the third worst against the spread team in divisional games. Only the Cardinals and Commanders have been worse.