Kansas City Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown has shown glimpses of fantasy football upside throughout his career, though he has largely been unable to sustain success for extended periods of time.
If there is a quarterback in the NFL who can cure such a weakness, it’s Patrick Mahomes. In an offense void of proven receivers, the path for Brown to produce his best season to date is certainly well within the range of outcomes.
When you’re on the clock in the sixth round, does adding Brown to your roster make sense?
Hollywood Brown’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
The desire to get a piece of a Mahomes offense is understandable. I preach as much as anyone the importance of getting exposure to these point-producing factories, and I stand by it for two reasons.
First, the obvious. If this team is going to be in a position to score (and they are – 28.6 points per game during the Mahomes era), your player, no matter his role, is in a position to overachieve. It’s not a certainty that he will, but the opportunity to do so is a step in the right direction and one that many players drafted in this range don’t have the benefit of.
PlayerProfiler Stat of the Day🤖
Marquise Brown has had 1,000+ Air Yards in 4 straight seasons, but has only crossed 1,000 Yards once 😬
Last season he was 11th in Unrealized Air Yards with 789👀
Will Patrick Mahomes unlock Hollywood in 2024?📢#PlayerProfilerStats pic.twitter.com/KQLEXDTq14
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) April 7, 2024
The other is less intuitive. Defense.
Fantasy defense, that is. If we are going to assume that the Chiefs continue to produce at a high level, it’s possible that you face a Mahomes, Travis Kelce, or Isiah Pacheco team in the fantasy postseason. By adding a KC WR to your roster, you can, to a degree, protect yourself against getting ousted by a Chiefs explosion. That is, if Mahomes were to produce a big game against you, you’re in a spot to at least get some of the spoils and thus stay competitive.
The downside is also quite clear if you’ve been chasing Kansas City’s WR2 for years. Here are the recent results for the secondary receiver in this offense:
- 2023: Justin Watson caught 27 passes for 460 yards and 3 TDs (16 games)
- 2022: Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught 42 passes for 687 yards and 2 TDs (17 games)
- 2021: Mecole Hardman caught 59 passes for 693 yards and 2 TDs (17 games)
- 2020: Mecole Hardman caught 41 passes for 560 yards and 4 TDs (16 games)
- 2019: Sammy Watkins caught 52 passes for 673 yards and 3 TDs (14 games)
- 2018: Sammy Watkins caught 40 passes for 519 yards and 3 TDs (10 games)
The idea behind this role is reasonable, but you need to be aware that the “someone has to catch passes besides Rashee Rice and Kelce” narrative isn’t completely true. Mahomes is elite for a reason – his reason to take what the defense gives him and produce.
Brown is the favorite to be the WR2 in this offense, but there are no shortage of moving pieces. We don’t yet know what Rice’s status is to open the season, a situation that has the potential to change all of the math behind projecting Brown.
We also don’t know how involved rookie burner Xavier Worthy will be. While it seems unlikely that he will garner a massive target share, it can’t be ruled out. Add in the returning cast of characters from last season (Watson, Hardman, and Kadarius Toney, to name a few) along with Pacheco’s increased role, and it’s not hard to see this being a pass-catcher-by-committee situation behind Rice.
Brown is going in the same range in drafts as veterans like Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, and DeAndre Hopkins. I think that’s the right neighborhood, it’s just not a tier of receiver that I’m landing on with regularity.
Evan Engram is the player I have the most exposure to in Round 6, and I feel good about the type of roster I can build by going that direction.
At the end of the day, whichever of the three primary Chief receivers carries the lowest ADP come draft day is the one I’ll be most likely to land on. I’d like exposure to this offense, but I’m not going to overextend to grab a piece that lacks a defined role entering the season.
Should You Select Hollywood Brown at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 88th Overall (WR37)
- Disappointing Track Record: Over his first five years in the NFL, Hollywood Brown has flashed big-play potential but has never consistently delivered as a top-tier fantasy WR. He’s coming off two underwhelming seasons with the Arizona Cardinals, where he failed to finish as a top-40 fantasy WR.
- 2023 Struggles: In 2023, Brown finished as the WR52 with 51 receptions for 574 yards and four touchdowns. Despite ranking inside the top 30 in target share and air yards, his efficiency metrics were disappointing, with 1.27 yards per route run, 5.7 yards per target, and 11.2 yards per reception, all ranking outside the top 65 among WRs.
- New Opportunity in Kansas City: Brown now joins an explosive Chiefs offense led by Patrick Mahomes, which naturally generates buzz. However, the presence of target hogs like Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice, as well as the addition of rookie WR Xavier Worthy, could limit Brown’s target volume and role in the offense.
- Target Competition: Brown faces the toughest target competition of his career in Kansas City. Kelce and Rice are likely to dominate the short and intermediate areas, while Worthy, with his blazing speed, could command a significant share of the deep targets. This raises concerns about Brown’s ability to reach 100 targets for the first time since his rookie year.
- Inconsistent Production: While Brown will likely have spike weeks and big performances, his role as potentially the fourth option in the passing game could lead to inconsistent fantasy production, making him a risky weekly starter.
- ADP Analysis: Brown’s current ADP of WR37 in the early eighth round feels inflated, especially given the other playmakers in the Chiefs’ offense, his durability concerns, and his inconsistent production history. He’s being drafted ahead of players like Diontae Johnson, Ladd McConkey, and DeAndre Hopkins, who may offer more reliable production.
- Final Verdict: While playing with Mahomes offers upside, Brown’s fantasy ceiling is capped by the strong target competition in Kansas City. Given his track record and the other available options at this ADP, it may be wiser to target a more reliable or higher-upside player in the eighth round.