What is Hayden Hurst’s fantasy football outlook and ADP in 2021 in Year 2 of his stint in Atlanta? The Falcons traded a second-round pick to the Baltimore Ravens for Hurst before the 2020 season. Unfortunately, he didn’t maximize his opportunity while filling the void left by Austin Hooper.
Hayden Hurst’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Hurst finished last season with 571 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns while averaging 5.4 targets per game. Furthermore, Hurst was targeted 16 times in the red zone, ninth-most among tight ends.
Baltimore selected Hurst in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft. The Ravens gave up on him after Mark Andrews’ breakout season in 2019, resulting in Hurst’s trade to Atlanta.
Hurst was unable to replicate Hooper’s production in 2020. As a result, the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts fourth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. He played in eight games for Florida last season, generating 43 receptions for 770 yards, and set the school single-season touchdown record by a tight end with 12. Additionally, Pitts is also a competent run blocker. The Falcons declined Hurst’s fifth-year option days after the University of Florida tight end’s selection.
The new coaching regime in Atlanta
Under head coach Arthur Smith, the staff in Atlanta doesn’t have any prior connections or emotional attachment with Hurst or other players on the roster. Multiple signs point to Pitts being an immediate contributor and Hurst feeling a sense of déjà vu.
The Falcons have 195 targets and 1,000 air yards available entering the 2021 season. Atlanta traded Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones to the Titans.
Is Hurst being phased out of Atlanta’s offense?
The Titans sent a second-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and fourth and sixth-rounders in 2023 to the Falcons for Jones. Atlanta also acquired veteran tight end Lee Smith from the Bills. For his career, Smith has 64 receptions for 458 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. Moreover, he has a reputation as a run-blocking specialist. Hurst, on the other hand, struggles mightily when asked to block.
Pitts will be a significant upgrade for Arthur Smith’s offense. He should fit in nicely with quarterback Matt Ryan and receiver Calvin Ridley. Smith’s offense in Tennessee leaned heavily on play-action passes and pre-snap motion last year, which should continue in Atlanta. Pitts excels as a receiver and a blocker, further boosting his odds of being the Falcons’ TE1. This versatility will allow the Falcons to run various plays out of the same formation to keep defenses guessing.
The stage is set for Hurst to be phased out of Atlanta’s offense in 2021.
Fantasy projection
Hurst projects for around 45 targets, 29 receptions, 400 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns in 2021. He can be viewed as a low-end TE3 in PPR formats and has a shallow ceiling with Pitts on the roster. We have the rookie projected for 100+ targets in 2021.
Hayden Hurst’s ADP
Hurst is essentially free when you review redraft ADP data from Fantasy Football Calculator. In pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship, Hurst has an ADP of 258.79.
Meanwhile, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 269.9.
Should you draft Hurst in 2021?
No, I wouldn’t draft Hurst in fantasy football drafts this season. Pitts is most likely to consume a high percentage of tight end targets. Hurst’s fantasy outlook in 2021 could change if Pitts struggles or misses an extended amount of time with an injury. Yet, hope is not a winning strategy in fantasy football.
