If you’re looking for Week 8 XFL Orlando Guardians vs. Arlington Renegades odds, picks, and predictions for this fascinating Saturday matchup, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
Guardians vs. Renegades Week 8 Odds and Betting Lines
The following odds and betting lines for the Guardians vs. Renegades are as of the evening of Thursday, April 6, and come from DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, they’re subject to change. That said, barring an unforeseen injury to a significant starter, we should assume that these lines will remain largely intact.
- Point Spread: Guardians (-1.5)
- Moneyline: Guardians (-115), Renegades (-105)
- Over/Under: 42.5 (-110)
Guardians vs. Renegades Picks and Predictions
Full disclosure, as always: I had my worst performance of the season last weekend, going 1-3 on point spreads and moneylines, as well as 2-2 on over/unders. I had been 23-9 on combined point spreads and moneylines since Week 3. No excuses. Week 7 upended my thinking on a lot of these teams, forcing me to challenge long-held assumptions as we near the end of the regular season.
In fairness, as bad as I was last week, I was very public about how deceptively good the 0-6 Guardians were, urging readers to watch — or at least record (if that’s still a thing) — their matchup against the undefeated Defenders because it’s been a tale of two seasons for Orlando.
With Paxton Lynch under center, their offense rarely got going, and their defense was arguably the league’s worst.
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But when Quinten Dormady took over the reins, the entire complexion of this franchise shifted. I would call it swagger, born from a newfound confidence in the offense’s ability to move the ball against anyone.
Last weekend, the Guardians’ extraordinary victory over DC was the culmination of four straight weeks of successively better execution. In fact, we might say this team hit rock bottom in Week 4 when they lost 10-9 to the Renegades.
Since then — especially since Dormady was installed as the starter — the offense has looked progressively more comfortable. Cody Latimer and Charleston Rambo are one of the best WR duos in the league. Between Jah-Maine Martin and Devin Darrington, one of them generally has gotten hot enough to help move the chains. And Dormady looks like one of the XFL’s top quarterbacks, period.
For Arlington to keep pace, their upper-tier defense must step up. The problem is that Orlando’s offense is starting to look a lot like the Battlehawks’ and Sea Dragons’. It was far easier to stop Paxton Lynch in Week 3. But this Guardians squad is playing like a different team.
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Arlington’s troublesome passing game won’t help their cause on Saturday. Whether it’s Drew Plitt under center or Kyle Sloter (or the recently acquired Luis Perez), as I and others have been writing for weeks, this team doesn’t have the playmakers to keep pace with good offenses.
Once again, De’Veon Smith will need to carry an outsized load on the ground. Against a defense like Orlando’s, that might be viable. However, we just witnessed the Guardians beat the best running team in the league. There’s only so much Smith can do.
A week ago, the Guardians were 0-6 with four games to play. Now they’re one victory away from being in serious postseason contention. What a wild season.
- Recommended Point-Spread Bet: Guardians (-1.5)
- Recommended Moneyline Bet: Guardians (-115)
- Over/Under: Under 42.5 (-110)