After an impressive turnaround with the Seattle Seahawks, Geno Smith has now been traded to the Las Vegas Raiders for a third-round pick.
Raiders minority owner Tom Brady and head coach Pete Carroll entered this offseason determined to upgrade their quarterback position, and now Smith will replace Las Vegas’ revolving door of QBs from the 2024 season that included Aidan O’Connell, Gardner Minshew II, and Desmond Ridder. Smith played for Carroll in Seattle and now will reunite with the veteran head coach.
How much will Smith make next year with the Raiders and what does his contract look like going forward?
Geno Smith’s Salary and Contract
Smith signed a three-year contract worth up to $105 million with Seattle during the offseason after his breakout 2022 campaign.
That season, the journeyman quarterback completed 69.8% of his pass attempts for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while also running for 366 yards and one score. Smith earned Comeback Player of the Year honors as a result after never fully finding his footing across his first seven NFL seasons.
The Seahawks rewarded that production with an incentive-laden contract that included $75 million in base value, led by $27.3 million fully guaranteed at signing.
Many of Smith’s incentives include roster bonuses, which pay out on certain dates if milestones were met the previous season and Smith is still on the team’s roster.
Those are different from performance incentives, which are guaranteed the moment a player surpasses a stipulated milestone. In Smith’s case, this means he will have to surpass certain milestones and still be on the roster by the time the payout date rolls around.
Now, the Raiders will inherit Smith’s contract, which will count against the cap for $44.5 million in 2025. Smith is expected to sign a new contract with Las Vegas that will pay him $40-45 million per year, according to Dianna Russini of The Athletic.
If he gets $45 million per year, that would tie him with Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins for the 12th-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL, in terms of average annual value.
The highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL are Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott ($60 million), Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow ($55 million), Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love ($55 million), Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence ($55 million), Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa ($53.1 million), and Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff ($53 million).
San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy is expected to join this list this offseason since he’s up for a lucrative payday.
During the 2024 season, Smith was the NFL’s 15th-ranked quarterback in the league according to PFSN’s QB+ metric. He ranked 21st in EPA/DB (0.03), 20th on third downs (37.4%), and 14th in nYPA (6.9). Smith essentially matched his 2022 level of play, yet the Seahawks failed to make the playoffs.
Smith benefitted from a loaded supporting cast in Seattle, so it will be interesting to see how he fares in Las Vegas considering the offense is mainly built around tight end Brock Bowers and will need a lot of work and additions in order to be competitive.
Smith averaged 0.03 EPA per dropback in 2024, which ranked 21st in the NFL. While that sounds underwhelming, the Raiders’ QBs have averaged -0.05 EPA per dropback the last two seasons since they traded away Derek Carr.
Smith ranked between 10th and 18th in QB+ in each of his three seasons as the Seahawks’ starter. His biggest strength was that he performed very well when protected, ranking seventh in passer rating (107.4) when kept clean since 2022. Now, he will hope to play behind a better offensive line next season, as Seattle ranked 27th in PFSN’s Offensive Line rankings in 2024, while Las Vegas ranked 22nd.
The Raiders’ QBs had just an 89.7 passer rating when kept clean in 2024, which ranked 27th. In addition, Raiders QBs had the worst TD rate (2.0%) when kept clean.
Smith started in 2022 and 2023 with Carroll as his head coach. In those seasons, Smith ranked fourth in completion percentage (67.4%), sixth in passing TD (50), and sixth in passing yards (7,906).