Let’s be honest with each other. Did you think that coming into last season, fantasy football managers would be deciding between Garrett Wilson and Puka Nacua this year?
I didn’t (even though I spoke of Puka Nacua’s previous offseason as a sleeper pick). 2024 gives us a battle of these two young wide receivers. Both players are in potent offenses and can take another step this season. Wilson’s next step shows up hand in hand with Aaron Rodgers, who is staying healthy. At the same time, Nacua’s fantasy outlook leans on his ability to continue his breakout in his second year even if Cooper Kupp stays healthy.
Wilson’s average draft price is 12, while Nacua’s ADP is 14th overall. These ADPs make us question who the better target for our fantasy football team this season is.
Let us help you break down both players’ outlooks for the 2024 season.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Garrett Wilson
Wilson had a rough year statistically due to the Rodgers injury. It’s a significant downgrade from Rodgers to Zach Wilson. TruMedia recorded 674 routes for Garrett Wilson, which was the most of any wide receiver in the NFL. Wilson was heavily targeted (although we can discuss the quality), as he received the fourth most targets in the league. Wilson produced 105 receptions, 1042 yards, and three touchdowns in those targets. Those numbers converted into a conversion rate of 56.5% of targets turned to receptions, which was 118th in the entire NFL.
Wilson receives throws from a future Hall of Famer in Rodgers this year. Those 168 targets should be more accurate balls, allowing us to produce a total that can elevate our fantasy team this year instead of sinking it like last season.
2024 Fantasy Outlook for Puka Nacua
This rookie came charging into the scene, blowing the doors off of anyone’s predictions. Nacua earned Sean Mcvay’s trust during the offseason, and it helped result in an excellent season for the rookie. He received 160 targets and turned in a final stat line of 105 receptions (ninth-best), 1,486 receiving yards (fourth-best), and six touchdowns (29th-best).
That last statistic is the issue for Nacua’s game. The Rams trusted their running back, Kyren Williams, their superstar wide receiver, Cooper Kupp, and even Demarcus Robinson enough to eat into Nacua’s chance down by the goal line.
If Kupp is fully healthy, does Nacua take a backseat within the offense?
Who Should I Draft in 2024?
The answer here is Garrett Wilson. It’s simple to us: regression is coming, and the writing is sadly on Nacua’s wall. He will still have a decent year, but you are drafting him at the absolute ceiling. Repeating his receiving yards will be daunting, especially with a healthy Kupp.
When you look at the total number of routes and targets with Wilson, you receive upside on a wide receiver with an average draft position (ADP) of 12th overall, which is rare in a fantasy football draft.
These two wide receivers are ranked closely because both will produce for fantasy football. However, the player who can help bolster your lineups the most comes from New York with Wilson. His only issue is his late bye in Week 12, but we can work around that for his level of production. Draft Wilson this year and be excited to turn those league-leading routes run into monster numbers.