The NFL will head to Brazil for a Friday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles. With two playoff teams from last year taking to the field, this game has the potential to be entertaining. Hopefully, for fantasy football managers, that will mean points for lots of them.
Let’s examine the data around this game in terms of potential scoring and which of the fantasy options you should start and sit this week.
- Spread: Eagles -2.5
- Total: 48.5
- Packers implied points: 23
- Eagles implied points: 25.5
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Can Jordan Love Help Fantasy Managers in Week 1?
- Fantasy Points: 18.1
- Passing Yards: 247.1
- Passing TDs: 1.7
- Interceptions: 0.8
- Rushing Yards: 12.8
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
The Eagles were the third-worst defense last season in terms of the percentage of passes that resulted in touchdowns (5.4%), and that makes Jordan Love viable. But I’d be careful in assuming he gashes this defense for a monster night.
These two defenses were among the five worst in 2023 in terms of plays per drive, while both offenses were top six in that metric. That points toward a bend-don’t-break style, something that is common across the NFL these days. But it comes with a major fantasy drawback — a lack of volume.
Moving the ball down the field is great, obviously. Time-consuming drives, however, place a high level of importance on efficiency. It’s not that Love can’t do that, he can. But the addition of Josh Jacobs has me a little worried.
The Packers brought Jacobs in from Vegas as a way to get younger, sure, but also to help finish drives. Green Bay ranked 19th in red-zone offense a season ago, scoring a touchdown on just 51.6% of trips inside the 20.
Since 2021, rush TD% inside the 10-yard line:
- Josh Jacobs: 33.3%
- NFL RB Average: 28.9%
- Aaron Jones: 18.2%
Why would I still start Love in most formats, even with those concerns? It’s September, and offenses are slightly ahead of defenses.
Over the past five seasons, 40.3% of third downs are converted, and 58.8% of red-zone drives result in scores during September compared to 39.7% and 57.2%, respectively, the rest of the way.
Love is a fine play in Brazil; I just don’t think we get the burst-onto-the-scene game that some are projecting by labeling him a dark-horse MVP candidate.
Should Fantasy Managers Have Any Concerns Over Jalen Hurts This Week?
- Fantasy Points: 22.4
- Passing Yards: 221.0
- Passing TDs: 1.3
- Interceptions: 0.6
- Rushing Yards: 44.8
- Rushing TDs: 0.8
Jalen Hurts was the ninth-best fantasy QB on a per-pass basis when under pressure a season ago and just 17th when not pressured. Therefore, I’m not too worried about Green Bay potentially applying some heat.
Hurts has opened each of the past three seasons with 7+ carries in 6+ straight games, elevating his fantasy floor to an elite level. There’s no reason to think that changes in this spot.
Saquon Barkley’s impact will be something we adjust to with time, though no downgrade of Hurts’ weekly value will be enough to remove him from the auto-start tier at the position.
Is Josh Jacobs a Fantasy Starter You Can Trust?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 13.0
- Rushing Yards: 57.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.5
- Receptions: 2.5
- Receiving Yards: 18.5
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
Early in the player evaluation process, I was completely out on Jacobs. Realistically, he’s had one efficient season since his impressive debut in 2019. And as good as that 2022 season was, his profile is beginning to look a lot like Geno Smith’s; a player who ran as hot as the sun for an entire year but not one who is at all likely to approach that success again.
From a macro standpoint, I remain on that side of the Jacobs debate. Yet, with AJ Dillon being lost for the season on Aug. 27 and rookie MarShawn Lloyd getting very few reps this summer due to a variety of ailments, Jacobs has a clear path to an elite role in one of the most promising NFL offenses.
The Eagles allowed the third-fewest yards per carry after contact to running backs last season (10.4% better than league average), and of the 35 backs with 150+ carries in 2023, Jacobs ranked dead last in that metric.
But Jacobs was awful by any metric. Austin Ekeler, Dillon, Alexander Mattison, and Javonte Williams (fresh off of an ACL tear) were the only running backs to deliver a lower percentage of their expected fantasy points last season.
Jacobs is in a tough spot in Brazil, but the sheer volume is enough for him to work just inside of my top 20.
Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, and Jacobs are all veterans who give me the heebie-jeebies. So many of their underlying numbers are pointing in the wrong direction, and that makes them volume options at best. That worries me long term, though I think it’s safe for Jacobs this week, which means you’re plugging him in.
I bet Derek Tate that James Cook would outscore Jacobs this season, and I’m still okay with that.
Saquon Barkley Remains a Slam-Dunk Fantasy Star
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 15.3
- Rushing Yards: 66.4
- Rushing TDs: 0.4
- Receptions: 3.3
- Receiving Yards: 20.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
You may have forgotten what Barkley is capable of and/or are intoxicated by the young talent at the position. Be prepared for him to remind you of exactly what he can do.
https://t.co/V0eVU5GrOh pic.twitter.com/o7lFR0MnGV
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 24, 2024
Barkley was put in a no-win situation with the Giants last season, and that projects to change in a major way. He ranked 32nd in yards per carry before contact in 2023, while former Eagle D’Andre Swift paced the position and checked in 120.4% above the number Barkley posted.
The Packers ranked 25th in stopping running backs after contact last season, putting us in a position to see a truly vintage Barkley performance.
We’ll see what his role in the passing game and inside the 10-yard line looks like, but Barkley’s versatility alone makes him an RB1. If you’re a believer in this coaching staff like I am, Barkley breaks into the top five at the position this week.
Should Fantasy Managers Trust Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, or Dontayvion Wicks?
Jayden Reed
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 10.6
- Receptions: 6.0
- Receiving Yards: 89.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.5
I got plenty of blowback this preseason for ranking Reed as a top-30 receiver and the clear go-to option in Green Bay, but I’m sticking to it. He could pay off that confidence this week.
Philadelphia was a middle-of-the-road defense when it came to yards allowed after the catch, but it was the third-most vulnerable unit on a yards-per-pass basis when opponents dumped the ball off (under 10 air yards).
2023 aDOT rankings (min. 50 targets):
- Christian Watson: second
- Romeo Doubs: 31st
- Dontayvion Wicks: 52nd
- Jayden Reed: 58th
Reed saw 8+ targets in four of five games to end last fantasy season, and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Packers entered 2024 with creative ways to get him the ball in space.
Maybe I’ll be wrong in labeling Reed as the alpha, but I have him ranked this week right where I did all preseason — as a plenty viable WR3/Flex option with a WR2 label if you went light on the position to open your draft.
Romeo Doubs
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.0
- Receptions: 2.9
- Receiving Yards: 31.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
I don’t mind the idea of using Doubs as a WR vulture of sorts and chasing touchdowns with him when your receiver corps is a little depleted due to bye weeks or injury. This is a good matchup where that could potentially work.
Doubs led the Packers in end-zone targets last season, and the Eagles allowed the highest completion percentage on balls thrown to the painted area. But why risk it in a week when your entire roster is active?
Weeks 1-8 (seven games played):
- Targeted on 23.4% of routes
- 10 end-zone targets
Weeks 9-18 (10 games played):
- Targeted on 15.6% of routes
- Five end-zone targets
As Love developed and other receiving options emerged, Doubs wasn’t earning targets (valuable or otherwise) at nearly the same rate.
Could that flip in 2024? Could Doubs be a touchdown-scoring savant who is worthy of a Flex look every week? I’m not ruling it out, but I’m not opening the season with that as my baseline expectation.
Doubs should very much be rostered in your league, but there’s just no reason to roll the dice on him in season-long formats in Week 1. DFS, meanwhile, is a different story.
Christian Watson
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.8
- Receptions: 2.3
- Receiving Yards: 34.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
It was the smallest of samples, but we did get a glimpse of the upside that resides in this profile just before his season came to an end last December. Watson was targeted on 27.1% of his routes in Weeks 12-13, far exceeding the 21.4% rate he had given us during his career up to that point.
The knock on Watson has never been what he can do with opportunities, it’s earning them at a sustainable rate — and we did get some proof of that ability last year. Of course, availability is also a skill we need to see from him, and that’ll take time, but Watson seems to be in a good spot health-wise right now. That puts him on the Flex radar in most formats.
MORE: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings (Updated Weekly)
Let me be clear: By no means is Watson a must-play in Week 1. He sits just outside of my top 40 at the position — in part due to my projected rotation of snaps in this deep offense but also because of how the Eagles defend.
As a unit, Philadelphia’s group was leaky last season, but with a bottom-10 blitz rate and a top-10 pressure rate when not blitzing, the time for Watson to separate down the field could be limited.
You drafted Watson as ninth-round exposure to an offense that you think can be elite. It’s okay to take a cautious approach and see if he’s more Gabe Davis or Tank Dell.
Dontayvion Wicks
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.9
- Receptions: 2.2
- Receiving Yards: 33.1
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
The fifth-round pick out of Virginia was pegged by many as a sleeper this season, which could come to fruition. But we need to see it before locking Wicks into lineups — the position is simply too deep.
Make sure Wicks is rostered in your league, but if I’m going to talk up Reed as the top receiver in Green Bay’s offense and he’s barely ranked as a starter, you’re getting too cute by trying to pay off your sleeper pick in Week 1.
Are Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith Fantasy Starters in Week 1?
A.J. Brown
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 18.2
- Receptions: 6.0
- Receiving Yards: 89.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.5
With Barkley now in the mix, Brown could see fewer game plans designed to slow him down. If that’s the case, a third straight season with over 1,400 yards is coming.
You’re starting Brown everywhere in annual leagues, though a weird trend developed last season that would have me thinking twice about playing him in a DFS showdown situation.
Receivers cleared 20 PPR points against the Packers five times last season, and none of them are the names you’d assume – DJ Chark, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, Jordan Addison, and Jakobi Meyers. This Green Bay defense will look different with Jeff Hafley taking over the defensive coordinator role, but it was strangely more vulnerable to secondary receivers in 2023.
DeVonta Smith
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.8
- Receptions: 4.2
- Receiving Yards: 55.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.3
Could 2024 start on an interesting note for the Eagles’ receiving duo? It’s certainly possible as this is the only matchup that features a top-10 pressure defense facing a bottom-10 offense in terms of limiting pressure, and that unit is now without Jason Kelce.
Hurts Under Pressure (2023):
- Brown: 74.9 fantasy points, 4.1% below expectation, 1.6 points per target
- Smith: 74.9 fantasy points, 36.6% over expectation, 2.3 points per target
Until Smith truly challenges Brown in the target share department consistently, he’ll take a backseat in my rankings. But there’s a compelling case to be made for Smith this week, and he is certainly worthy of being locked into lineups across the board.
Could Dallas Goedert or Luke Musgrave Start at Tight End for Fantasy Managers in Week 1?
Luke Musgrave
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.5
- Receptions: 3.4
- Receiving Yards: 35.3
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
The 2023 second-round pick caught 73.9% of his targets last season in 11 games and scored during the win over the Cowboys in the postseason. Tucker Kraft remains a threat in terms of total usage, but I do think Musgrave is the one fantasy managers should keep their eye on.
That said, this game projects as a low-possession game, and at least four receivers in this offense project as better target earners.
Musgrave could carve out a role eventually, but I’m happy to be a week late rather than two months early.
Dallas Goedert
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.6
- Receptions: 3.3
- Receiving Yards: 41.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
The casual fantasy manager knows this name and wants a piece of this offense, but did you know that Goedert has never caught 60 passes or scored six times in a season?
The Eagles brought in Jahan Dotson this summer to solidify the WR3 role, and Barkley is among the most dynamic receiving backs in this game, making both of those thresholds again an uphill battle.
Goedert sits outside of my top 10 at the position against a Packers team that allowed the fewest opponent drives a season ago. He’s going to live in the Dalton Schultz tier for me more often than not – you can start him if you need to, but the upside is unappealing. That is why I’d prefer a prospect like Brock Bowers to him, even without a defined role.