Fantasy football is more than just the weekly head-to-head games we all love. On Underdog, fantasy managers can put their player-projection skills to the test by predicting player stat lines.
Here are my top Underdog plays for the Thursday Night Football Pick ’em contest between the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Thursday Night Football
Underdog Pick’ems allows fantasy managers to predict stat lines and fantasy-point totals for almost all fantasy-relevant players. You can make two picks that pay out 3x even money or add more selections to your entry for higher payouts.
The levels are 3x, 6x, 10x, and 20x, progressing with each additional pick ’em you add to your entry. Let’s take a look at this week’s Thursday night Underdog Pick’ems.
Zach Charbonnet Lower Than 69.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
Last week, we hit on Zach Charbonnet lower than 76.5 rush + receiving yards. He played 88% of the snaps, touched the ball 18 times, and totaled 58 yards. As a result, the books have lowered his line this week … but not by enough.
The Cowboys allow 3.8 YPC to running backs, the eighth-fewest in the league. They allow 25 receiving yards per game to backs, the fifth-fewest in the league. The Seahawks are nine-point underdogs. If the game goes as expected, they will have to abandon the run sooner than they’d like.
I like Charbonnet — he’s a talented player. But he’s getting saddled with tough matchup after tough matchup filling in for the injured Kenneth Walker III. Seventy yards is asking a lot. Look for a similar line to last week, keeping him below this number.
Geno Smith Higher Than 9.5 Rushing Yards
The Seahawks have lost two straight and three of their last four. In those contests, Geno Smith has not played particulary well. Specifically, he criticized himself for not making enough plays and holding onto the ball too long.
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One way to solve that problem is to just throw it quicker. But there isn’t always a receiver open. Another potential solution is for Smith to go through his progressions quicker and make a quicker decision on whether to keep looking or pull it down and run.
The Cowboys have been vulnerable to the mobile quarterback. Plus, given how prolific the Cowboys are offensively, they force opposing passers to drop back a ton, allowing for more opportunities to scramble. I think we see Smith do so a couple of times, pushing him past this relatively low number.
Tony Pollard Lower Than 87.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
Tony Pollard has definitely looked better as of late. He’s been vastly more efficient over his last two games, particularly on the ground. But this is a very high projection.
Pollard can easily have a very good outing against the Seahawks while totaling “just” 80 yards. If Pollard carries the ball 15 times for 60 yards and catches three passes for 25 yards, that’s a really nice game. It also keeps him below this projection.
This one isn’t about matchup because the Seahawks have been vulnerable against the run recently. They also are below average at defending running backs against the pass. This is about the Cowboys being a pass-heavy offense and this being a very high bar for Pollard to cross.
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