Free agency is still a couple of days away from officially commencing, but NFL teams are already preparing. There have been several moves this past week, but the most notable one has to be the Seattle Seahawks trading QB Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders. Let’s examine the fantasy football impact of Smith leaving Seattle.
Fantasy Impact of Geno Smith Being Traded to the Raiders
This move isn’t a total surprise, as there had been rumors of the Seahawks possibly trading Smith. However, I didn’t think they’d necessarily do it. Perhaps them releasing Tyler Lockett combined with DK Metcalf requesting a trade should’ve been clues that Seattle might be looking to retool.
Smith is entering his age 35 season, which is fine for a quarterback. He can easily play another 4-5 years at a high level. There’s no reason to think Smith can’t maintain his above average to good level of play this season.
We are now three years removed from Smith’s stellar 2022 season when he averaged 18.5 fantasy points per game. Over the past two seasons, Smith has not been a weekly fantasy starter. However, he’s had his moments, finishing as the QB20 and QB15 in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
Smith benefited from some excellent receivers in Seattle, but didn’t have the best play-callers, at least in his first two years as starter. In Las Vegas, he gets a first-year coaching staff that is inheriting some quality talent.
Brock Bowers
Let’s start with the biggest name impacted by the trade. In 2023, Sam LaPorta became the greatest rookie tight end in fantasy football history. Bowers let him hold that title for exactly one year.
Brock Bowers burst onto the scene as a rookie, finishing as the overall TE3, averaging 15.5 fantasy points per game. He did this while catching passes from Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, and Desmond Ridder. At best, Minshew is a low-end NFL starter. O’Connell is a career backup and Ridder belongs in the UFL. For Bowers to catch 112 passes for 1,194 yards and 5 touchdowns is incredible.
Smith is obviously far from an elite quarterback, but he’s a massive upgrade on what the Raiders had last year. Smith averaged 0.03 EPA per dropback in 2024, which ranked 21st. While that sounds underwhelming, Raiders QBs have averaged -0.05 EPA per dropback the last two seasons since they traded away Derek Carr.
Smith ranked between 10th and 18th in QB+ in each of his three seasons as the Seahawks’ starter. His biggest strength was that he performed very well when protected, ranking seventh in passer rating (107.4) when kept clean since 2022.
Bowers enters the 2024 season as the clear best tight end in fantasy and his outlook just got even better. He belongs in the second round.
Jakobi Meyers
Perennially underrated, Jakobi Meyers just keeps on keeping on every single season. While he lacks league-winning upside, Meyers consistently outperforms his ADP.
For the past four seasons, Meyers has been drafted outside the top 36 WRs. He’s finished inside the top 36 every year, topping out at WR20 last season, averaging a career-best 14.5 ppg.
There was some concern that the Raiders might sign Aaron Rodgers and bring back Davante Adams. That’s certainly not happening now. While they still may draft a wide receiver, Meyers’ fantasy value looks pretty safe once again. Depending on what the Raiders do in the draft and free agency, Meyers should be a solid WR3 with WR2 upside.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Last year was Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s coming out party. It was actually a make-or-break year for the 22-year-old. Despite being so young, his rookie season was underwhelming, as he was stuck as a distant third option behind Metcalf and Lockett. As a sophomore, JSN’s career was going one of two ways: either he completely vanquishes a significantly declining 31-year-old Lockett and is on the path to stardom, or he fails to overtake Lockett and fades into obscurity. Smith-Njigba chose the former.
JSN broke out massively, catching 100 balls for 1,130 yards and 6 touchdowns. He led the Seahawks in receiving and really became the top option in the passing game, ahead of presumed alpha Metcalf.
Now, Lockett is released and Metcalf seems likely to be traded. Of course, Seattle is going to bring in some more receivers, either via free agency or the draft. However, it’s extremely unlikely anyone will threaten Smith-Njigba’s WR1 status.
The biggest question mark is who will throw JSN the ball. The going theory is that man will be Slingin’ Sammy. No…not the one already on the roster. The real one.
As we reported on Wednesday about a potential Geno Smith trade to the #Raiders, this now opens up the #Seahawks as a Sam Darnold destination. This is the version of a mystery team emerging once they knew they could sign Darnold outright rather than trading for him. https://t.co/ioA0OKbGA8
— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) March 8, 2025
How much Darnold’s renaissance was Kevin O’Connell? We’re about to find out. Regardless, it’s hard to argue Darnold isn’t at least a lateral move from Smith if not an upgrade.
If the Seahawks sign Darnold, I will be incredibly bullish on JSN this season. For now, we wait and see.
DK Metcalf
Discussing the impact on Metcalf feels like it could be a waste of time. I bought that Seattle would trade Metcalf even before this move. Now, I’m even more confident they grant his trade request.
So, the main way the Smith trade impacts Metcalf is it makes it more likely the talented WR ends up on another team. When that trade happens, we’ll discuss the ramifications of whatever move is made at that time.