The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Houston Texans players heading into their matchup with the Denver Broncos to help you craft a winning lineup.
C.J. Stroud, QB
Did C.J. Stroud unlock something last week against the 49ers?
With Nico Collins (concussion) and Christian Kirk (hamstring) both sidelined, he threw for 318 yards (a season high by 74 yards) and two scores while rushing a season-high seven times for 30 yards.
I’d love to sell you on him turning a corner and, thus, the return of his more proven receivers, only further elevating his status moving forward, but I’m not buying it.
What we saw was the byproduct of a good offensive line week. Maybe more aptly, a poor defensive line week.
The 49ers rank 28th in non-blitz pressure rate, and that ranking is sinking due to their injuries on that side of the ball. This meant that Stroud was pressured on 23.8% of his dropbacks — a big change from the first seven weeks (35.6%) — and he took advantage.
Great to see, but tough to sustain unless you think this offensive line magically improved in a significant way.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 9 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
Denver ranks fourth this season in non-blitz pressure rate, and if that’s the case on Sunday, Stroud’s fifth week outside of the top 20 at the position is probably more likely than his third QB1 finish of 2022, no matter who he is throwing to.
Nick Chubb, RB
Nick Chubb handled a season-high 17 carries on Sunday against the 49ers and celebrated by posting his fourth effort in five games without a gain of 12 yards.
I don’t like the word “washed,” but it’s clear that not only are Chubb’s best days behind him, but that Wood Marks offers a level of burst that the 29-year-old is a few knee surgeries removed from.
A flip in touch distribution feels close to inevitable, but you can’t cut ties with Chubb until we see it. If Houston can get some good luck on the health front at receiver and Marks plays a role in an upset win over Denver, we could be having the “does Chubb need to be rostered” conversation in this space next week.
Jayden Higgins, WR
Jayden Higgins was targeted twice on the first drive, led the team in targets (eight), and scored for the second time in four games (12-yard score from the slot).
The rookie is laying some breadcrumbs, but I think his value is more tied to the status of Collins, and that puts him at risk of completely disappearing as soon as the former Pro Bowler returns to action.
Higgins is an interesting dynasty buy if you’re comfortable betting on the future of Stroud, but barring significant injuries around him, I’d be surprised if he hit your lineup at any point down the stretch of this season.
Dalton Schultz, TE
Dalton Schultz battled through an apparent shoulder injury during the second half, but one week after he recorded season bests in yards per route, fantasy points, targets, and fantasy points relative to expectations, he had his worst week in each of those categories against the 49ers.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
Fun times.
The disappointment came not in us expecting the Week 7 success to be sustained, but in the fact that he’d be a safe option in a game where both Collins and Kirk were inactive.
He had a window of opportunity to elevate to a different tier at the position, but he failed miserably. Schultz is an average target earner in an offense with upside, a sentence I’ve penned this season about Loveland, Kincaid, and Hunter Henry, among others.
I’m giving him one more week where I can, but by no means should you feel obligated to do so.