The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Pittsburgh Steelers players heading into their matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals to help you craft a winning lineup.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
There was a drop that turned into an interception.
There was a missed shot on a 41-yard touchdown to DK Metcalf that Aaron Rodgers probably hits about as often as Steph Curry makes a free throw.
I get that there were chances for Sunday night in Los Angeles to be very different for the future Hall of Famer, but it wasn’t. He’s started 250 games, and this was his seventh-worst (minimum 30 dropbacks) in terms of fantasy points per pass attempt.
- 31 attempts
- 16 completions
- 161 yards
- 1 TD
- 2 INTs
If not for the touchdown on Pittsburgh’s final possession of a 15-point loss, we are looking at one of the worst starts in recent memory for a player with a resume like that.
Less than a month ago, he threw four touchdown passes in Cincinnati against these Bengals on short rest.
So now what?
I’ll pass.
Rodgers has four games without multiple TD passes this season and has yet to reach 250 passing yards in a contest this year. I’m not suggesting that the Bengals come off their bye with some sort of revamped defense, but extra time to prepare for a vanilla offense that doesn’t challenge you down the field if they can help it?
I fully expect a bounce-back performance, but am I confident that he’s the sixth QB to score 20+ fantasy points against Cincinnati in their past seven games?
I’m not.
Jaylen Warren, RB
If you remove a game against the best run defense in the league, Jaylen Warren has produced 5.9% above his PPR expectations this season, an impressive feat given the struggles of this offense that lacks creativity.
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He’s caught multiple passes in every game this season and has over a dozen attempts on the ground in four straight, usage patterns that project well against a Bengals defense that struggles across the board.
Asking for another 20-touch, 158-yard game isn’t wise (what Warren gave us a month ago in this matchup), but his skill set opens him up to a productive afternoon regardless of the game script, and that puts him in the RB1 discussion this week for me.
I currently have him ranked as the top running back in this game, ahead of much bigger names like Kyren Williams and Breece Hall.
DK Metcalf, WR
The narrative surrounding Metcalf this week is way different if Rodgers makes a layup throw and allows his top receiver to cash in a 41-yard touchdown, but you have to play with the hand you’re dealt, and the fact of the matter is that this offense is prohibitive.
Can you tell me what Andrei Iosivas, Casey Washington, and Daniel Bellinger all have in common?
Outside of being names on your waiver wire, my guess is no.
They all have deeper receptions (15+ air yards) than Metcalf this season. The same Metcalf who has been the king of air yards in the past. The same Metcalf whose physical build is so off the charts that it inspired Pete Carroll to rip off his shirt and try to measure up.
That Metcalf has three such receptions as we sit here today, not far from Thanksgiving.
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This matchup comes with a moral obligation to place the opposing WR1 inside of my top 20 at the position, so Metcalf is a WR2 this week, but I’ve seen very little reason to think he can be anything more than a fringe starter moving forward in this system.
Jonnu Smith, TE
Rodgers playing one of his worst games didn’t help things, but I’m not sure it matters.
This Arthur Smith pass game is having trouble getting Metcalf into fantasy lineups consistently, so why would we think it can support a tight end committee?
To be honest, if Jonnu Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington were all one player, I wouldn’t be interested.
OK, that was phrased poorly. If they were all literally combined into one another and we had a 19’3″, 770-pound tight end … yes, they’d have my attention. But role-wise, no thanks. The three of them combined for one fewer target than Calvin Austin earned last week, and that means none of them are even worth a second look long-term.
For one week against the Bengals?
Smith ran one more route than Washington and Freiermuth combined in the loss to the Chargers, so he’d be my pick, but he’s outside of my top 15.