Pittsburgh’s backfield has evolved significantly over recent weeks with shifting usage patterns creating uncertainty. Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell head into a Sunday showdown with Buffalo carrying different momentum. Which Steelers running back warrants fantasy football trust for Week 13?
Jaylen Warren’s Fantasy Outlook
Warren has operated as the lead back for most of the season, averaging a career-best 13.1 fantasy points per game. This production represents a significant step forward for the veteran who has carved out a featured role in Arthur Smith’s offense. His efficiency and red-zone work have made him a reliable RB2 option through 11 weeks.
With that said, his snap share has declined noticeably over recent contests. After consistently playing over 60% of snaps during the first nine weeks, Warren has topped out at just 50% over his last three games. This reduction signals a genuine shift toward committee usage rather than a temporary game script anomaly.
MORE: Free Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer
The volume has remained steady despite the diminished playing time. Warren handled 18 carries last week against Chicago, converting them into 68 yards and a touchdown. That rushing workload demonstrates the coaching staff still trusts him as the primary ball-carrier on early downs and in scoring situations.
Of some concern ,though, is the fact that Warren saw zero targets and failed to catch a pass for the first time all season against the Bears. This represented a dramatic departure from his established role, as he had contributed in the passing game throughout the season. Whether this shift proves permanent or game-specific remains unclear heading into Week 13.
Kenneth Gainwell’s Fantasy Outlook
Gainwell operated as a seldom-used backup for the first 10 weeks outside of one game where he started for an injured Warren. The Eagles castoff seemed destined for minimal fantasy relevance in Pittsburgh’s offense. That narrative flipped entirely over the past two weeks.
He has now out-snapped Warren in consecutive contests while becoming heavily involved as a receiver. Gainwell totaled 14 targets over his last two games, catching 13 passes for 111 yards. He also carried the ball 19 times combined, demonstrating expanded usage beyond just passing situations.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
The workload expansion reached its peak last week with 92 rushing yards on 10 carries plus six receptions for 30 yards. Gainwell actually outgained Warren on the ground despite receiving eight fewer rushing attempts. His receiving work came while Pittsburgh trailed throughout the second half, creating favorable game-script conditions for pass-catching backs.
That type of consistent usage on a weekly basis would make Gainwell absolutely fantasy relevant as an RB3/Flex option. Pittsburgh appears committed to a distribution of touches closer to a 50-50 split moving forward. The Steelers still regard Warren as their primary back, but they appreciate Gainwell’s versatility enough to keep him heavily involved.
Should You Start Warren or Gainwell This Week?
Buffalo presents a challenging opponent for winning the game but a favorable matchup for Pittsburgh’s running backs. The Bills allow the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to running backs, ranking among the league’s more generous defenses.
The defensive structure functions as a run funnel unit. Teams attack them on the ground by necessity rather than choice, creating volume opportunities for opposing backfields.
Most of the damage comes through rushing production rather than receiving work. Just 12.6% of Buffalo’s total receiving yards allowed has gone to running backs. This suggests the Bills defend pass-catching backs more effectively than traditional runners. That dynamic favors Warren’s between-the-tackles rushing role over Gainwell’s receiving-heavy profile in this particular matchup.
Pittsburgh’s desire to run the ball aligns perfectly with this game environment. The Steelers opened as 3.5-point home underdogs with the total set at 47.5 points. That suggests a relatively high scoring game and that game script won’t get away from them.
Both backs are startable this week given the favorable defensive matchup and guaranteed volume. Warren holds a slight edge as an RB2 due to his rushing workload and goal-line role, while Gainwell functions as a viable Flex play with solid PPR upside despite the receiving limitations Buffalo imposes.