The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Seattle Seahawks players heading into their matchup with the Washington Commanders to help you craft a winning lineup.
Sam Darnold, QB
The volume isn’t quite the same, but you could have made a lot of money forecasting Sam Darnold to average more fantasy points per pass this season than last.
Fantasy Points Per Pass Attempt
- 2024 with Vikings: 0.53
- 2025 with Seahawks: 0.57
After a strong start to the season, Washington has struggled to create pressure without the courtesy of the blitz, and that means one of two things is likely to happen on Sunday night: (1) Darnold is comfortable in a clean pocket or (2) the Commanders are left vulnerable on the back-end as a result of needing to crowd the line of scrimmage.
Realistically, I’m OK with either result, but which adventure you believe is most likely for them to choose impacts where Darnold ranks among the pocket-locked QBs this week.
Sam Darnold Splits
- 2024, when blitzed: 66.4% complete and 133.6 rating
- 2025, when blitzed: 59.3% complete and 92.9 rating
- 2024, when not pressured: 73.7% complete, 8.2 yards per attempt
- 2025, when not pressured: 78.7% complete, 10.3 yards per attempt
With Seattle coming off the bye, I’m more bullish on Darnold in this spot than the industry norm and see him as a threat to the top 12 at the position, even without an expectation of any points on the ground.
Kenneth Walker III, RB
This is an old man yelling at clouds situation, and guess what?
The clouds? They never listen.
Kenneth Walker has his weekly moments, but NFL coaches love consistency, and if anything, Walker has been a consistent detriment.
He’s pacing to finish as a 20th percentile running back in terms of rush gain rate, something he’s done every season of his career up to this point. There’s a reason that the Barry Sanderses of the world are considered special: that home run-seeking style is hard to pull off.
Walker has been held under four yards per carry in three straight, held out of the end zone in four straight, and has just five catches in six games since catching three balls in Week 1.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 9 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
We can beg for more work, but he hasn’t really earned it. Giving him more work would encourage a style that has been a net negative for going on five seasons. There is raw talent here, no doubt, and maybe we get a taste of that this weekend.
Or maybe we don’t.
The fact that we can’t count on him carries over to the coaching staff, and that’s why I have a hard time penciling him in for over 15 touches in any single game. The touch count is close enough to that of Zach Charbonnet, so I’ll continue to rank him a touch higher because I have to account for the potential of a splash play, but I don’t feel great about playing him as an RB2 this week.
Or, to be honest, any week.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
Isn’t Charbonnet essentially Tyler Allgeier?
Not from a role standpoint — obviously, one has Bijan Robinson on his team and the other doesn’t — but both are plodding backs who aren’t the least bit exciting and can cash in when given the chance.
Through six games played this season, Charbs had 205 rushing yards and six catches, while Allgeier had 203 rushing yards and three catches.
Seattle’s co-starter is getting the red zone work over Walker (22-16 edge in red zone touches despite one fewer game played), but he doesn’t have a touch picking up more than 15 yards or a three-target effort this season.
You can play Charbonnet and know what you’re getting. There’s comfort in that, but it requires you to build a good roster around him, because you’re sacrificing ceiling.
Cooper Kupp, WR
It seems almost impossible that the Seahawks are having success at the level they are while only having one player we feel good about starting each week, but that’s exactly where we stand after two months, and there are no signs of change.
Cooper Kupp hasn’t really ceded any work to Tory Horton, yet he has one end-zone target this season and has reached 50 air yards just once in his past five games.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
He does have a catch picking up at least 24 yards in three straight, so if you want to sell me on him as a reasonable dart throw against a defense that is bottom-10 against deep passes in terms of interception rate, yards per completion, and passer rating, I guess I’d reluctantly listen. Still, I truly think you’re chasing the value you associate with this name and not current expectations.
Kupp is a risky play at best and unrosterable if you think Darnold is in for some regression during the second half of the season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR
We spent time this summer worrying about what a move out of the slot would mean for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, with Seattle moving on from the receivers they had banked on for years, thus elevating JSN into a truly featured role.
We nailed the “out of the slot” portion of that.
The “worrying” part? That was silly.
Smith-Njigba’s slot usage has fallen from 77.4% of routes to 19.4%. The loss of those “easier” targets hasn’t mattered in the least.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
His average depth of target is up 41.3% from a season ago, and it hasn’t stopped him from earning 10 looks per game. He had a 40-yard catch in each of his first six games this season and has scored in three straight, following his TD in Week 7 against the Houston Texans with an easy dunk on the uprights all in one motion from his route, an impressive athletic feat for a six-footer wearing pads.
I think a 38.3% target share and a 46.3% receiving-yardage share (he has 819 receiving yards and is the only Seahawk at even 300) are probably high-water marks. I have a hard time not penciling in some regression, but even a bit of backtracking keeps him EASILY inside the top 10 the rest of the way.
He’s a matchup-proof alpha. The numbers are expected to continue piling up this week and moving forward, giving you great value based on his preseason ADP.
Whispers … He faces the Carolina Panthers in Week 17, giving him every chance to not only be the reason your team makes the playoffs, but the reason you win the whole thing.
Tory Horton, WR
This preseason was filled with speculation that Horton could earn the WR2 role in this offense, but there seems to be motivation to do that, and that means you can move on without a second thought.
The rookie hasn’t run 20 routes in a game this season and had consecutive games without a reception entering the bye: there are some prospects to wait on, but this isn’t one of them.
AJ Barner, TE
AJ Barner has touched the ball 21 times this season, and six have come in the red zone. He’s failed to catch more than three passes in six of seven games, an alarming trend given that Darnold is playing at about as high a level as we can reasonably expect.
In theory, this offense needs someone to draw defensive attention away from Smith-Njigba. That leaves Barner on the streamer radar, though it seems likely that Seattle will fill that role by committee.
Barner is a prototypical streamer. If you’re holding, you’re probably leaving food on the table to target a Week 17 date with the Panthers.