The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Seattle Seahawks players heading into their matchup with the Minnesota Vikings to help you craft a winning lineup.
Sam Darnold, QB
Sam Darnold is what the Seahawks need, but is he what fantasy managers need?
If you roster Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the answer is a resounding yes, but otherwise, not really. He has just two top-20 finishes at the position since Week 7 and is beholden to these deep shots to his WR1.
Did you know that his last touchdown thrown short of the sticks came back in Week 5?
Funneling 40% of his targets in the direction of JSN as he did on Sunday can create something of a stable floor, given the abilities of his WR1. Still, this Minnesota defense is swarming around right now (Caleb Williams and Jordan Love were both held under their season average production by more than 45% in this spot over the past two weeks), and that has me off of Darnold in all formats.
This revenge narrative is a fun one: a fun one that I don’t want my fantasy fate tied to in any way.
Zach Charbonnet, RB
We’ve reached the holiday season, and we are still looking for the first time this season in which Zach Charbonnet has been held out of the end zone in consecutive games.
How crazy is that?
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Kenneth Walker’s role continues to expand, and he looks the part (past three weeks: 5.0 yards per carry with seven catches on eight targets). Still, if you’re watching a ‘Hawks game, a high-leverage Charbonnet opportunity feels inevitable.
He has multiple red zone touches in nine of his 10 games up to this point, and his average touchdown length is a whopping three yards.
Walker is objectively more efficient and subjectively more fun, but chasing a touchdown from Charbonnet has largely been more profitable than waiting for the perimeter run from Walker that pays the bills.
The diminishing snap share is clearly a concern, but this team is committed to him holding a Tyler Allgeier-like role, and, as much as I like Walker’s upside, he’s no Bijan Robinson.
Rashid Shaheed, WR
Rashid Shaheed has turned eight Seahawks targets into just 30 yards over his three weeks with the team. They’ve experimented with a rushing attempt in each contest, but he’s been unable to navigate this depth chart in a meaningful way, even with Tory Horton on the shelf.
Week 12 Pass Catcher Usage
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 26 routes, 10 targets
- Cooper Kupp: 23 routes, 4 targets
- Shaheed: 19 routes, 2 targets
- AJ Barner: 17 routes, 4 targets
Given how this offense is structured, I still think this was a sharp trade. My concern is that it’s a move that was made for January, after our season has concluded.
I’m not buying Kupp as a viable secondary option, and while Barner can move the chains, I can’t imagine he is the complement to JSN that Seattle wants to rely on.
This is a fairly clear-cut situation: hold and hope. We have no proof of concept for working on Shaheed’s strengths effectively, but we are aware of the season Darnold is having when he does cut it loose.
The Seahawks get the Falcons next week before a Colts-Rams-Panthers run to close the fantasy season. Could Seattle look to expand its role to keep up with Indy or to avoid pounding their head against the wall in those last two matchups against viable run defenses?
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I’m not ruling it out, but I’m not playing Shaheed in any capacity this week with every team in action.
AJ Barner, TE
Maybe the Seahawks just don’t need a Robin to Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Batman?
Barner had the 11-target game in Week 11 against the Rams, but that always felt like a red herring, and it proved as much on Sunday against the Titans as he posted a sub-17% target share for the fifth consecutive victory.
He was held under 25 receiving yards for the fourth time in five games and run under 25 routes for the 10th time in 11 contests: there simply isn’t a secondary option in this passing game that we need to concern ourselves with.
Barner did see an end zone look, and TD equity is the only reason you’d hold a player like this, hoping that the gravity of the offense alone is enough to get him into the top 15 at the position in any given week. Still, with that being just his third end zone look of the season, you’re chasing a ghost.