The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Jacksonville Jaguars players heading into their matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders to help you craft a winning lineup.
Trevor Lawrence, QB
Trevor Lawrence has been a tough watch for the majority of this season.
That’s a statement of fact, not opinion.
It’s also a fact that, at least recently, it hasn’t mattered. Jacksonville is coming off their bye, and in the three weeks prior, there were four QBs to score 17+ fantasy points in each of the three weeks prior:
- Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, and Lawrence
That’s the company that Lawrence has kept in no other regard this season, but there aren’t pictures in the fantasy box scores, and his usage patterns trumped his lack of efficiency in October. He had 10 rushes or 42 passes in all three of his October games, and if given that many chances to produce, even a QB not seeing the field at a high level can hit lineups.
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The Raiders are tracking to finish in the bottom quarter of the league in pressure rate for a second straight season, and Lawrence has five touchdowns against zero interceptions when not pressured over his last four games.
I’m not selling you on Lawrence as a week-maker or DFS lineup staple, but if you’re without Jalen Hurts or Baker Mayfield, I think he should very much be on your short list.
Bhayshul Tuten, RB
Travis Etienne hasn’t impressed, but the Jags haven’t been willing to expand Bhayshul Tuten’s role, and that has the rookie profiling as nothing more than a speculative handcuff at best.
We’ve yet to see him reach a 30% snap share, and he hasn’t cleared five touches in over a month. This is an above-average offensive line when it comes to run blocking, and that’s enough to keep my interest in a handcuff back should my roster allow for a stash player, but he’s certainly a cut candidate if you find yourself in a crunch.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
We’ve got the Travis Hunter usage moving in the right direction, but outside of that, it’s difficult to find room for optimism in Jacksonville these days.
Etienne was one of five Jaguars to log a carry in the first half of their Week 7 blowout loss against the Rams, and that distribution of work, along with the game script, resulted in a third straight game with 12 or fewer carries for their lead back.
That’s a tough sell.
He’s seen 12 targets across those three games, and that’s a start, but they’ve yielded just 12.8 PPR points. It’s clear that this team is taking on water, and that could mean an exploration into Bhayshul Tuten (4-6 touches in five straight games) sooner than later.
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Even if he retains the lead role, if we are topping out at 15 touches in a below-average offensive environment, it’s difficult to get excited.
As long as he holds the lead role, he’s going to be on the flex radar, if for no other reason than we saw him have success in September. That said, for me to feel good about him retaining this role, he needs to take advantage of this plus-matchup off the bye.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Right when it seemed that Brian Thomas Jr. was moving in the right direction with 80+ receiving yards in consecutive games, he didn’t show much in the loss to the Rams in London before the bye (31 yards on seven targets).
To make matters worse, on Jacksonville’s final drive of a game that was never competitive, Thomas grabbed at his right shoulder at the first sign of contact. It wasn’t anything more than a normal jam around the line of scrimmage, but he was in obvious pain.
His status needs to be watched, but even if he’s fine, how much confidence can you realistically have in rolling him out there?
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been given a ton of time to throw lately, and even when he is, the decision-making is regressing instead of developing.
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I will say that five different Jaguars had a 20+ yard catch in London, and that’s a start. That said, until those passes are going consistently to Thomas, I’m not sure there’s top-15 upside in this profile.
Keep an eye on the reporting: when healthy, he’s a flex option I’ll prefer more against better teams when the script tilts toward passing aggression.
Travis Hunter, WR
A sharp route, a well-timed pass, and an end zone dance.
It was art in London in Week 7; it just happened to come with the Rams playing conservatively on defense, thanks to a 28-0 lead.
They all count, so Hunter getting on the board was great to see, but I’m far from ready to say that he’s been unleashed. The usage is trending in the right direction, but Trevor Lawrence is struggling to find anything close to consistency. Until that’s the case, I have reservations about using Hunter with confidence.
Weekly Participation Report
- Week 1: 27 routes, 6 defensive snaps
- Week 2: 27 routes, 39 defensive snaps
- Week 3: 27 routes, 41 defensive snaps
- Week 4: 23 routes, 9 defensive snaps
- Week 5: 26 routes, 25 defensive snaps
- Week 6: 44 routes, 22 defensive snaps
- Week 7: 51 routes, 12 defensive snaps
That said, the talent is obvious. He’s a special player with the ball in his hands, and that much is clear. I remain very bullish on the trajectory of the dual threat, and this matchup is certainly an opportunity to flex him.
Just be careful.
This is a struggling offense that needs to show us something before we invest weekly. The big play was great to see, but there’s a reason garbage time was in effect for most of the fourth quarter.