The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Jacksonville Jaguars players heading into their matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers to help you craft a winning lineup.
Trevor Lawrence, QB
The Chargers’ defense has looked great against inferior competition and given up some production to true dual threats on talented teams, so the question is simple: which bucket does Trevor Lawrence fall into?
At this point, I’m leaning toward the former, which has him outside my top 20 this weekend. Lawrence has just one multi-TD pass game over his past seven, and with the rushing production hit-or-miss, there are far more paths to failure than success when facing a tough defense.
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We just saw Los Angeles force Aaron Rodgers into one of the worst games we’ve ever seen him play, and while Lawrence offers more mobility than that, if the passing metrics struggle, you need a multi-rush TD game to make this stream worth it — and that’s just not the smart play.
Bhayshul Tuten, RB
Bhayshul Tuten was one of the late risers late in the draft process this summer. While he has produced 30% of his expectations on his limited run this year, the opportunity to grow into a meaningful role simply hasn’t presented itself.
There’s no hope at standalone value this season outside of an injury, but I do want to see some explosive potential before his rookie year comes to a close (45 carries, and his longest run is 11 yards).
Travis Etienne Jr. will be a UFA this summer, opening the door in a major way for Tuten. Use the final weeks of this season as a time to form an opinion on this prospect, not as a time to consider him for your lineup.
Travis Etienne Jr., RB
The offensive environment isn’t great in Jacksonville these days, and yet, Etienne has been able to hold his own.
As the unquestioned lead back in this system, he has a rushing score or at least three catches in six of his past seven games, a level of versatility that lands you in fantasy lineups with regularity.
Brashad Tuten was viewed as a true threat this summer, but we’ve yet to see any real signs of that, and that’s largely why I think you should be comfortable in starting him every week.
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This matchup results in a lowering of expectations (it’s been three weeks since the last time a running back reached a dozen PPR points against the Bolts), but that doesn’t knock Etienne outside of my top 20 at the position.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Brian Thomas Jr. missed last week with an ankle sprain as his disappointing season continues (50% catch rate with one touchdown).
There have been moments of volume, but with just one finish this season better than WR30, it’s hard to spin much optimism in this direction, as the connection with Trevor Lawrence simply isn’t there.
A fully healthy BTJ has been impossible to trust, which warrants caution in using him, even if he checks all the health boxes leading into this game. Lawrence has offered little upside when sped up this season, so the fact that the Bolts have seen their non-blitz pressure rate spike after a slow start to the season has been associated with more risk than reward when it comes to the profile of his WR1.
Jakobi Meyers, WR
In his Jaguar debut, Jakobi Meyers ranked third among the receivers in routes run, not an ideal role to hold considering that both Thomas and Travis Hunter were inactive.
- Parker Washington: 30 routes run
- Tim Patrick: 22 routes run
- Meyers: 16 routes run
- Dyami Brown: 13 routes run
I think there’s a good chance of that in this spot, but we are very much in a wait-and-see spot with Meyers (his splash play last week was on a busted coverage). If he can carve out a niche role, maybe there is some PPR value to chase in the coming weeks (Arizona and Tennessee in Weeks 12-13).
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That said, if you thought getting Meyers out of Vegas was going to be a boon to his value, I think that’s wishful thinking. We aren’t sure yet where he fits in the target hierarchy of this offense, and with the Colts and Broncos making up three of his final four matchups of the fantasy season, I’m not sold he’s a top-30 player.
Parker Washington, WR
Parker Washington has posted his best two games of the season over the past two weeks, an impressive string of production given the circumstances.
In Week 9, Thomas was active for the most part, and in Week 10, not only was the star WR inactive, but Meyers was introduced to the mix.
It didn’t matter. Washington cleared a 27% target share and 80 air yards in both games. His catch rate fell off a cliff in a tough matchup last week against the Texans, but he saved things with a toe-tap touchdown in addition to a 72-yard punt return score.
I’m worried that the more comfortable Meyers gets in this system, the more of a timeshare occurs between the two similar players. Washington deserves to be rostered, but I don’t think you can start any members of this passing game with confidence, as Lawrence works through a tough season (59.5% completion rate with as many touchdown passes as interceptions over the past month).
Travis Hunter, WR/DB
Adding an injury to Hunter’s profile feels inevitable and unfair.
Two weeks ago, news emerged that a knee injury had landed the talented rookie on IR, and we got news on Tuesday that the dual threat’s season is over.
Weekly Participation Report
- Week 1: 27 routes, 6 defensive snaps
- Week 2: 27 routes, 39 defensive snaps
- Week 3: 27 routes, 41 defensive snaps
- Week 4: 23 routes, 9 defensive snaps
- Week 5: 26 routes, 25 defensive snaps
- Week 6: 44 routes, 22 defensive snaps
- Week 7: 51 routes, 12 defensive snaps
This will be a situation to watch as the offseason comes into focus. Not for the health; everything on that end seems fine, but for reports coming out of Jacksonville about how they felt this season went.
Does the injury force their hand in picking a side of the ball to focus on? What does the WR room look like?
This partial rookie season has left me with more questions than answers, but the asking price won’t be nearly as high as it was this August.
Brenton Strange, TE
Brenton Strange saw his window to return (quad) open this week, and that means we get one more warm body on the TE streaming radar.
Strange caught six passes in two straight games before suffering the injury in Week 5 against the Chiefs, and while that volume is valuable, the short targets have gotten a little more difficult to earn in Jacksonville during his absence.
Washington has stacked together a few productive weeks, and Meyers figures to be more involved as his comfort level with this system rises.
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Thomas being dinged up and Hunter done for the season means that there are opportunities to be had for a Jags team that is a home underdog this weekend.
If Strange is available, I don’t mind a speculative add to leverage a favorable upcoming stretch. Playing him this week after the extended absence is a bit optimistic for me, however.