The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Philadelphia Eagles players heading into their matchup with the Chicago Bears to help you craft a winning lineup.
Jalen Hurts, QB
A first drive TD strike to A.J. Brown (16 yards) and a pair of first-half rushing scores had Week 12 moving in the direction of a slate-breaking Jalen Hurts performance, but the Eagles looked lost after the hot start, blew the 21-0 lead, and stunted the elite production of their QB.
Yikes.
He threw a season-high 39 passes, and if you give me volume anywhere close to that, I’m ranking Hurts as a Tier 1 QB without a second thought. I find it unlikely that we get a similar game script this week, but I don’t think Hurts’ managers will need it.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
The quality of deep throws has been more of an issue than the quantity of late. In Philadelphia’s past four games, he’s misfired on 19 of 26 deep passes, misses those stunt drives, and creates frustration.
It’s a real problem if they want to repeat, but for Week 13, this lines up as a get-right spot.
Over the past decade, there have been 320 measured team seasons. The Bears are allowing 15.1 yards per deep pass (313th) and a score on 11.8% of those attempts (308th). The Eagles hit their offensive stride late last season before cruising to a title, and if that’s going to happen again, this looks like a turning point.
Saquon Barkley, RB
I like the “Stay Calm, Barkley” tag line on those commercials, but that’s certainly not a sentiment that his fantasy managers are feeling.
The season highs in catches (seven) and targets (eight) last week in Dallas shouldn’t be overlooked, but his rushing production over the past three weeks is downright disturbing.
Saquon Barkley Rushing Ranks, Weeks 10-12 (54 qualifiers)
- 41st in yards per carry before contact
- 42nd in yards per carry after contact
- 52nd in first down rate (ahead of Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Tony Pollard)
He also lost an impactful fumble and generally isn’t running with the same expectation that he was a year ago. During the Super Bowl run, he was running with the intent to hit his head on the goal post, but this year, there’s more Kenneth Walker-itis in play, where he is trying to finesse his way to gains.
This is a great spot to get right, and I expect him to do so. The usage is intact, and if Jalen Hurts is going to continue to feature his top two receivers deep down the field, a stable run game would unlock this offense in a way they very much need.
You can get your grill at a discount on Black Friday. I’ll be settling in and hoping to cash in on the discounted opinion of him: Barkley is my RB6 this week.
A.J. Brown, WR
A.J. Brown has 15 catches on 21 targets over the past two weeks as the greasy wheel has gotten some grease. He scored on the first drive (his first end zone target since Week 3), and it looked like everything would fall into place. Still, the Eagles’ offense was quiet after the first stanza, and that resulted in a frustrating loss to an overmatched divisional opponent.
Philadelphia fans aren’t happy with the result, but managers Brown have to like the direction things are trending. The deep targets are part of his game and showcase his upside, but the fact that he has multiple catches behind the line of scrimmage in three straight games speaks to a dedication to getting him involved.
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
Tee Higgins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Chris Olave are among the heavily involved receivers who have tormented the Bears this season, a trajectory Brown could follow should the Eagles elect to prioritize that pass (those receivers all cleared 26 PPR points).
Given how up-and-down this offense has been, I don’t think you really have to worry about game state. Philadelphia just blew a 21-0 lead against their most hated opponent, something that, to me at least, hints that they will have their foot on the gas for 60 minutes of every game for the remainder of the season.
DeVonta Smith, WR
AJ Brown is the vocal Eagle these days while DeVonta Smith makes plays.
He’s seen at least seven targets in four of his past five games, and in each of his last five with 7+ looks, he has a 25+ yard catch. He’s six feet tall and 170 pounds soaking wet, but his ability to make plays down the field continues to develop.
Smith’s aDOT is 27% higher this year than last, and with defenses unable to allocate much attention his way, I suspect we continue to see him running in single coverage deep down the field.
The Bears are battling plenty of secondary injuries and allow the second-highest completion percentage on passes thrown 15+ yards downfield through 12 weeks. I’ve got Smith over Brown this week, and he checks in as a strong WR2 in all formats for me.
Dallas Goedert, TE
The more the Eagles explore high-volume roles for their star receivers, the less I find myself interested in Dallas Goedert.
He’s a good player, and I don’t doubt that he’ll be important if the Eagles want to rebound from an embarrassing loss, but I’m not tempted to go this route with my fantasy season on the line.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
This offense isn’t built on passing volume, and that’s not going to change. Goedert hasn’t caught more than four passes in eight of his past nine games and has earned fewer than four targets in three of his past five.
You’re chasing a score (seven touchdowns this season) for a player that I’d price as the fifth most likely player on his own team to find the paint moving forward.
That’s bad math, and that has Goedert as a part of the streaming tier moving forward (toward the top of it this week, thanks to the matchup).