Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver DeVonta Smith caught 16-of-17 postseason targets and scored in the Super Bowl thrashing of the Kansas City Chiefs. Could that be a sign of things to come? With a pair of 1,000-yard seasons on his NFL resume and a career-high eight scores last season, Smith’s outlook is trending in the right direction, but the conservative nature of the Eagles’ offense comes with natural limitations.
Is the pride of Alabama worthy of drafting as a weekly fantasy football starter this season?
DeVonta Smith’s Fantasy Outlook
Not all growth is linear.
Smith entered the league as an undersized wideout who averaged 16.9 yards per catch during his collegiate career. The 2020 Heisman Trophy winner was a great college player, but his slight build had him projected as a DeSean Jackson 2.0: a really good receiver, but one with a specific set of skills that doesn’t play as well in today’s game as it did 15 years ago.
Through one season, that comparison seemed apt.
- Smith’s rookie season: 64 catches for 916 yards (14.3 yards per catch)
- Jackson’s rookie season: 62 catches for 912 yards (14.7 yards per catch)
Jackson hit the peak of his powers in his final season during his first stint with the Eagles (2013: 82-1,332-9), and Smith may approach those marks this season as he continues to develop.
Smith: Fantasy Points (PPR) Per Target
- 2021: 1.80
- 2022: 1.89
- 2023: 2.05
- 2024: 2.24
The trajectory is optimistic, and the further you dig into his statistical profile, the better things look. After averaging 3.8 catches with a 15.2-yard aDOT in his first professional season, Smith has hauled in 5.3 passes with a 10.8-yard aDOT since. The speed isn’t going anywhere for the 26-year-old, so the fact that he’s blending in high-floor traits with single-play potential is precisely what we want.
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In 2024, with Saquon Barkley driving this offense, Smith was put into the slot for 47.5% of his routes, nearly double his rate from 2023. This puts him in a position to offer an elevated floor, which is the only thing standing between him and a WR2 ranking.
OH MY DEVONTA. ON 3RD AND 22. UNBELIEVABLE CATCH.
📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/N2wD3Nlfxf— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
He’s a little outside of that for me, but that’s more the product of a lower volume passing game than the potential of what Smith can do with his looks. This is the exact profile I want from my WR3/Flex in all formats, as I’m comfortable that the good outweighs the bad at the end of the four-month season.
Smith ranks in the same tier as fantasy WR3s who are WR2s on their respective offenses. Jaylen Waddle, Chris Godwin, and Jauan Jennings are different receivers, but they all carry a similar month-over-month profile that I’m more than OK with should any of them fall below ADP on draft day.
Mason LeBeau’s DeVonta Smith Fantasy Projection
DeVonta Smith is a fantastic NFL receiver who has defied his size and become an excellent threat. Still, I have never considered drafting him, even when he started to slip in my drafts. His part in the Eagles’ offense is truly what makes it unfair, an extremely well-rounded threat that could be most teams’ top option that gets to feed on lesser cornerbacks. Unfortunately, that role doesn’t translate to fantasy.
The only way for Smith to become a legit fantasy asset is for AJ Brown to miss significant time. The Eagles’ offense simply does not rely on a high volume of passing output, ranking 32nd, 21st, and 24th in attempts over the last three seasons.
Brown is the primary target here, while TE Dallas Goedert gets his fair share of touches. QB Jalen Hurts is incredibly mobile, and that’s after RB Saquon Barkley gets fed. Smith works into that equation, but it’s slim pickings after those elite options get theirs first.
Even though Smith will put up reliable numbers throughout the season, they come in inconsistent bursts. He had four top-10 finishes in 2024, weeks 8, 9, 15, and 17. Between that, he had five finishes at WR35-plus, including WR155, 74, 64, and 53 finishes throughout the season. There’s little reason to play the feast-or-famine game on a mid-round receiver with limited upside.