The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Dallas Cowboys players heading into their matchup with the Arizona Cardinals to help you craft a winning lineup.
Dak Prescott, QB
Unless you believe the Cardinals will emerge from their bye with a newfound focus on the defensive side of the ball, I think you can look past last week’s dud for Dak Prescott in Denver.
In much the same way that the Cowboys are a performance-enhancing defense for their opponents, Denver suppresses numbers across the board, and Dallas’ start was no exception (19-of-31 for 188 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions).
Prescott entered the game on a near-historic hot streak (four straight games with 3+ TD passes and zero interceptions). While I think that’s probably overshooting expectations, it’s far more likely this is a Kyler Murray/Prescott shootout than a one-sided beatdown like what we saw a week ago.
He’s had two awful games this season, both on the road against defenses that can look like the best in the sport (Eagles and Broncos). A home game against the Cardinals (seventh-highest deep CMP% allowed since Week 4) is a little different, and with his playmakers fully healthy, I think you should feel good about Prescott returning to the top 10 at the position.
Javonte Williams, RB
Javonte Williams wasn’t left for dead by the fantasy community, but if we were universally sold on him, you’d have no idea who Jaydon Blue is.
He’s been great.
I’d argue better than great.
Williams has a touchdown or 5+ receptions in every single game this season, and while the per-carry efficiency comes and goes, his role as the unquestioned lead back in a high-powered offense is stable.
I think Dallas can look at their October results and switch up their priorities a bit. I don’t care about volume; we know the game script plays with those numbers, but in terms of efficiency, here are the splits for their four games this month.
- Two wins: 35 carries for 251 yards (7.2 YPC)
- Two losses: 26 carries for 70 yards (2.7 YPC)
There’s obviously some chicken-and-egg to those numbers, but if this team can create a balanced offensive environment, they can compete with anyone.
If not, they get run out of the building by 20 like last weekend.
That’s more of a macro take. In terms of Williams, you can feel great about locking him in this week — a statement I would never have guessed I’d be typing as we prepare for November.
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George Pickens, WR
The Cowboys weren’t competitive at all in Denver over the weekend. Still, Prescott did continue to concentrate his targets at a near-Flacco fashion (14 of his 19 completions went to either George Pickens or Lamb), and that means that both were usable with over 14 PPR points, even in a blowout loss.
I found it interesting that Patrick Surtain spent some time on Pickens, a sign to me that opponents view Dallas’ WR2 as a game-breaker they want to discourage Prescott from looking downfield.
That’s obviously easier said than done, but if they viewed Lamb as substantially more dangerous, the reigning DPOY would have been glued to him. Pickens hasn’t seen his target profile look much different since his partner in crime returned to the lineup, aside from a minor decline in red-zone usage.
Better days are ahead for this offense, and this is a great launching spot for just that. The point distribution will vary every week, but 35-ish fantasy points for the Lamb/Pickens tandem every week is fair, and that’s all we can ask for.
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Jake Ferguson, TE
The Cowboys were boat-raced by the Broncos in Denver last weekend, and that sent this offense into a spiral rather quickly.
Jake Ferguson, fantasy’s TE1 entering the week, saw nothing but a forced target at the end of the first half, a pass that Prescott pretty clearly predetermined, and you get what you deserve in the National Football League when you do that.
An interception that never really had a chance at being anything but that.
I’m willing to chalk this one up and move on. Ferguson still ran 30 routes, Dallas just happened to fall into the trap of trying to make a 20-point comeback on a single play, and they have a pair of receivers who are more capable of producing the massive play than their tight end.
The Cardinals were victimized by a high-level defense in their two games before the Week 8 bye (Tyler Vaughn and Tucker Kraft combined for 35.1 PPR points against them), and I’d expect a strong bounce-back effort from Ferguson.
He’s my TE5 this week, and even that is more a product of matchups for the four ahead of him. There’s not a decision to be made here, and there won’t be for the rest of the season.