The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Dallas Cowboys players heading into their matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs to help you craft a winning lineup.
Dak Prescott, QB
For the seventh time this season, Dak Prescott threw multiple touchdown passes last week, and he’s proven relentless over the course of four quarters this season.
Against the Eagles last week, Prescott’s Cowboys looked dead to rights, but he stuck with the plan, and it paid off. In the victory, 57.1% of his targets and 62.4% of his passing yards went to his top two receivers: if we see that level of execution the rest of the way, he can be a Tier 1 pocket passer.
His rushing days are behind him, but with over three fantasy points on the ground in three of his past four starts, there’s at least the hope for him to add value secondarily.
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The Chiefs have allowed a QB to reach his season fantasy average just three times through 12 weeks, and that sort of tenacity requires us to adjust our expectations a bit. That said, if you’re projecting Patrick Mahomes to have success in this spot, you’re forcing Prescott’s hand in terms of volume, and that’ll get him into the QB1 conversation more often than not.
Right now, he’s on the right side of the top-12 at the position for me.
Javonte Williams, WR
Javonte Williams totaled 101 yards in the comeback win over the Eagles last week, and I was impressed by Dallas’ commitment to him in a game where they trailed 21-0.
He’s carried the ball 20+ times in consecutive weeks, and while the passing game role leaves plenty to be desired (33 receiving yards since October 1), the quality of looks he is getting on the ground more than makes up for that.
Yes, he was stopped on the goal line last week in a wildcat design, and a penalty on the next play wiped out his TD equity on that drive, but this is a trust-the-process situation.
Williams has multiple red zone touches in every single game this season and at least four such looks in five straight. The Chiefs are the fifth-best post-contact run defense in the league and are certainly a challenge, but with a 15-18 touch game all but locked in, there’s no way to hold Williams out of your lineup this week.
He’s my RB19, checking in just behind a pair of rookies in Ashton Jeanty and RJ Harvey.
CeeDee Lamb, WR
The drops from CeeDee Lamb are irritating at a high level. Still, his resume suggests we need not react to the momentary lapses in concentration (three drops last week against the Eagles, including one poised to be a go-ahead score).
George Pickens isn’t the WR1 in this offense, but his ability to earn high-value targets has lowered the floor of Lamb, if for no other reason than a big play to him gets this offense off the field in a way that wasn’t possible a year ago.
In comparing Lamb’s profile this year to last …
- aDOT: Up to 12.7 from 8.1
- Slot Usage: Down to 33.2% from 48.3%
He’s effectively traded in highly efficient targets for ones with more variance attached to them.
For a talent like this, that wouldn’t usually bother me, but with the target share naturally lower due to Pickens’s presence, managers are feeling lowered expectations.
You’re not doing anything about it, but I wanted you to feel heard. This isn’t the ace you drafted, and I’m not sure we see that change (Week 5 was the last time a receiver scored 15 PPR points against the Chiefs).
For what it’s worth, I still prefer Lamb to Pickens, even after the latter looked like the more comfortable player in last week’s win over the Eagles.
George Pickens, WR
This George Pickens is one of the better “when talent meets opportunity” situations in sports this season. He landed in the perfect offense with the ideal quarterback at the perfect time, and with all of those things lining up, he’s fantasy’s second-best receiver.
The most impressive part is that he’s not sneaking up on anyone and still producing. We all knew what he was capable of this season, and even over the course of last week, it’s not that the Eagles were unaware of what he brings to the table.
Didn’t matter: a 25-yard catch to help set up the game-winning field goal from Brandon Aubrey.
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Last season with the Steelers, in a similar role via aDOT and target share, Pickens produced 9.4% below what you’d expect the average receiver to do in his role.
This season, he’s 36.9% better than the expected PPR production.
The Chiefs’ defense is nothing short of elite, and that means getting both Dallas receivers to the finish line might be difficult, but there’s nothing actionable to do here. It was way back in Week 1, but the Chargers had each of their three primary receivers clear 13 PPR points in this matchup, a fate that is certainly possible for Pickens and Lamb.
Every league’s draft position is different, but Pickens is in the mix for the most valuable draft day asset when looking at middle rounds, and there’s nothing numerically to suggest that regression is inevitable.
Jake Ferguson, TE
Jake Ferguson has been underwhelming in the yardage department since Week 4, and Dallas went to someone named Brevyn Spann-Ford for the TE score last week during the comeback win against Philadelphia.
The volume and the efficiency (eight games with 5+ catches and an 84.4% catch rate this season) lock in Ferguson as a no-brainer starter every week. Still, with little per catch upside, his stock has taken a hit as touchdown variance has swung away from him (one score in his past four games after scoring six times in his previous four).
This is a tough matchup, but I don’t think Ferugson is a matchup-dependent player. He offers a safety valve for Dak Prescott, and if that role is needed near the end zone, he scores. If not, you get what we saw last week, an unexciting 8-12 PPR points that won’t kill you.