The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Kansas City Chiefs players heading into their matchup with the Dallas Cowboys to help you craft a winning lineup.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
“One pass TD over his last three games on 125 attempts” is a sentence I assumed I’d never type for Patrick Mahomes during this dynastic window, but here we are.
I’m not too worried.
I still consider the Cowboys a plus-matchup, even if they’ve looked better coming out of the bye, but more importantly, the Chiefs know they will only go as far as #15 will take them.
While the counting numbers haven’t been piled up recently, he does have a 38+ yard completion in five straight and a 10+ yard run in five of his past seven. In essence, we are getting the postseason version of Mahomes 1.5 months early, and that means he’s going to be a plus asset more often than not.
I was encouraged by him funneling 60.5% of his throws in the direction of Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, or Xavier Worthy. If we combine the rushing upside that he has flashed all season with that sort of concentration, I think there’s a real chance he leads the position in scoring this week.
As it is, he’s my QB3 for the week and my top Turkey Day signal caller.
Brashard Smith, RB
In my head, Brashard Smith fits a niche role in this offense. He caught three more passes on Sunday in the win over the Colts, the fifth time in eight games he’s hit that mark, but with him functioning as a misaligned receiver, there’s really not a path to mattering in redraft leagues.
Week 12 Running Back Data
- Kareem Hunt: 72.5% snap share, 33 touches
- Smith: 19.8% snap share, four touches
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: 15.4% snap share. 7 touches
Smith has four carries over the past three weeks and has been unable to take advantage of Isiah Pacheco’s absence. The rookie’s role is more likely to trend backwards than forwards as the season concludes, and that makes him expendable in most situations.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
We haven’t seen Isiah Pacheco (knee) since Week 8, but he was practicing in a limited capacity last week and is trending toward a return to action.
It’s great to see some optimism in this situation, but I think fantasy managers are going to have to get proof of life before feeling a pull to flex any part of this committee.
Things were trending in the direction of Pacheco before the injury (12+ carries in three straight games after not clearing 10 in any of Kansas City’s first five games) and while I’d bet on him leading this backfield in work for the remainder of the season, it took over a month for him to look like the RB1 in this offense and that has me thinking he needs at least one ramp up game.
We know that Kareem Hunt carries the touchdown equity, even when this backfield is at full strength, and that creates a low floor. I like this matchup enough to flex Pacheco in deeper formats, but he’s far from a must-play.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Was I impressed with Kareem Hunt on a per-touch basis last weekend against the Colts?
Not really.
For the third week in a row, he saw his explosive run percentage decline, and he wasn’t exactly a key cog in the passing attack (sixth in targets). However, Patrick Mahomes did put the ball in his stomach 30 times, and that’s close to a foolproof plan when it comes to paying the fantasy bills.
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In the overtime win, seven of his 33 touches came in the red zone, and that’s the critical part. With Isiah Pacheco coming back, the volume isn’t going to be close to what it was last week. This backfield was trending in Pacheco’s favor before the injury, and that could well prove to be the case moving forward. Still, if Hunt continues to handle the valuable touches, he’ll be inside the circle of trust for PPR flex purposes.
This game is expected to total 52.5 points, which means plenty of scoring opportunities for all involved. I have similar touch projections with Hunt holding far greater TD equity, a thought process that has me ranking Hunt 10 spots ahead of Pacheco and sitting as a low-end RB2.
Marquise Brown, WR
Let’s not overcomplicate thighs: there are three players that Andy Reid is focused on scheming up looks for in this passing game and everyone else is fighting for table scraps.
Last week against the Colts, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy all ran 39+ routes while Kareem Hunt was the only other player on this roster to reach 25.
I understand wanting to bet on Patrick Mahomes’ magic, but when magic competes with logic, I encourage you to side with the latter.
Week 12 Target Distribution
- Kelce/Rice/Worthy: 26
- Running Backs: 9
- All Other Chiefs: 8
That wouldn’t be a comfortable situation if Marquise Brown were the favorite of the remaining pieces, so the fact that he’s battling with Noah Gray, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and the occasional Tyquan Thornton bomb should make your decision on rostering him pretty straightforward.
Hard pass.
There will likely be a game or two where he makes an impact play, but he’s not high up on the priority list of this offense, and that’s enough for me never to feel good about considering him. I’d rather stream in targets from the Bills, Packers, or Patriots, situations with a more fluid hierarchy as you work up the target hierarchy.
Rashee Rice, WR
Rashee Rice has cleared a 20% target share in every game this season, and his 12 targets and 141 yards last week were his best marks of 2025.
Over the past month, he’s caught 18-of-20 targets coming short of the sticks, doing precisely what this Chiefs offense needs him to do and doing it at a high level.
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Rice had the critical 47-yard grab against the Colts, helping save their season and elevate his fantasy day in the process. Dallas’ defense has looked better in the two weeks coming out of the bye, and that’s forced opponents into a 6.3 aDOT (third lowest over that stretch and a 24.1% decline from pre-bye).
That’ll drive a pro-Rice angle in the FREE PFSN betting newsletter (a new release on every NFL game day) and is why I have him sitting as a top-5 receiver in this spot.
Xavier Worthy, WR
We seem to be settling into a bit of a role for Xavier Worthy, and while I don’t think it’s optimal, the clarity is nice to have.
The burner has posted a target share north of 18.5% in three of his past four games, and while he doesn’t have an end zone target since Week 6, this four-game run has seen 40.7% of his targets come deep downfield.
The vertical targets naturally carry more variance with them, and that can be viewed as a negative, but when the alternative is to fight with Rashee Rice/Travis Kelce for short-to-mid-range targets, embracing the significant play role is something I’m in favor of if one of every five throws is going his direction.
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His 31-yard catch against the Colts last week was his longest since September, a small step in the right direction for a Chiefs team that has the gas pressed down. I don’t think you’re looking at the type of growth you were hoping for, but I’m happy with the potential outcome in a shootout environment like this on the fast track.
Worthy slides into my top 30 at the position this week, in the middle of the three Thanksgiving day speed-oriented receivers (behind Jameson Williams and ahead of Christian Watson).
Travis Kelce, TE
Travis Kelce was rather ordinary against the Colts over the weekend (4-43-0 on six targets), but he did have a rushing TD taken off the board on the second drive, 6.1 points that would have made an underwhelming day a profitable one.
That stuff happens, and there’s not much you can do about it.
We seem poised to get “Postseason Kelce” earlier this year than years past, given when Kansas City sits in the standings, and that means more than enough volume to justify feeling good about starting him. However, the spike in Xavier Worthy’s usage last week (eight targets) hinders the upside in my projection profile.
Kelce has been living in that 8-14 PPR point range for the majority of this season, and that’s what you can expect moving forward. This Dallas defense has looked better coming out of the bye, but that elevates them to average, and an average matchup isn’t nearly enough to scare me off of Kelce in a meaningful way.