The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Kansas City Chiefs players heading into their matchup with the Denver Broncos to help you craft a winning lineup.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
The Broncos have quietly had Patrick Mahomes’ number of late (last three games: 138 dropbacks, two touchdowns, and three interceptions), and if Patrick Surtain (pec) can return to action, they are as well-equipped as anyone to slow down an offense that, at times, feels inevitable.
You can bet against Andy Reid, off a bye, coming off a loss… I won’t be joining you.
Before the Week 9 dud in Buffalo, Mahomes had four straight games with 28+ rushing yards and 7.8+ yards per pass. Not surprisingly, his ceiling has been raised even further since Rashee Rice returned from suspension, and this multifaceted attack should be able to handle even a tough matchup.
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Denver has struggled some against power run games, but that’s not what Kansas City has access to, so I think we can count on another 40+ opportunity (pass-plus-rush attempts) game for Mahomes. This projection lands him easily inside my top 10.
This isn’t a time to get cute. In fact, I’d be more likely to lean into the matchup concerns should it drive down projected DFS ownership.
Brashard Smith, RB
I was let down by Brashard Smith, who only earned a 17.5% snap share in Week 9 against the Bills with Isiah Pacheco sidelined, but reports have surfaced that the Chiefs are interested in a more even split between the two in neutral spots.
That’s interesting.
The rookie had a run of four straight games with 3+ receptions earlier this season and saw 29.9% of his collegiate touches come in the passing game. If we can get him trending toward 8-12 carries per game, that would open up Smith to be the most valuable Kansas City RB and a weekly flex option.
I’m not there yet. Talk is cheap, and we know that Andy Reid is more than happy to lean into creative schemes to keep the defense off balance. That said, things do seem to be moving in a positive direction, and if he can push 15 opportunities coming out of the bye, I won’t be slow to move him up in my future rankings.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
A Week 8 MCL sprain cost Pacheco one game, but the well-timed bye has that seeming like the only action he’ll miss.
Of course, as far as fantasy managers are concerned, missed time was a blessing as it prevented the mistake of starting him.
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In the four weeks before the DNP, Pacheco had one top 30 finish at the position, quite an accomplishment given the form of this offense as a whole. How does that happen?
Well, in those first eight weeks, he posted a 15.7% red zone touch share. Kareem Hunt is the clear top option, but Mahomes and Brashad Smith (both with a 14.3% share over that stretch) were effectively just as likely to touch the ball in valuable situations as Pacheco.
A four-way split with Rice coming on fast?
That’s a tough pill to swallow, not to mention whispers surfacing last week that we could be looking at “split carries” between him and Smith, cutting into the small niche role that he had access to.
I thought Pacheco was running hard pre-injury and was trending in the right direction, but another injury introduces more risk than the previous profile had room for reward. We just saw Ashton Jeudy get hit within two yards of the line of scrimmage on 15 of 19 carries against these Broncos on Thursday night, making this a spot where you’re best off searching for any warm body over a less-than-full-strength Pacheco.
Kareem Hunt, RB
The Chiefs leaned into Kareem Hunt as their featured back in Week 9 in Buffalo with Pacheco sidelined (80.7% snap share with a 21-5 route edge over Braschad Smith), and he continues to keep virtually all of the work in close (six more red zone touches before the bye).
With all of that working in his favor, Hunt touched the ball 12 times, the seventh time in nine games that he’s been in the 7-12 range.
Reports emerged late last week that this offense wants to expand Smith’s role, and given that they appear locked into what they wish to from Hunt, that’s more likely to subtract from Pacheco’s bottom line.
That said, this does feel like shuffling chairs to some degree: this is a pass-oriented offense that has Mahomes scrambling at a career-high rate. If one back were to project for 15+ touches a week, I’d be ranking them (regardless of which one of these three it is) as a top 15 play at the position, but without any semblance of a weekly floor, I’m not comfortable playing any of them in this brutal spot.
Kansas City knows what Hunt and Pacheco are: if I had to gamble on one of these backs for upside the rest of the way, it would be Smith as the lesser-known quantity that thus has more room to impress.
Marquise Brown, WR
Marquise Brown has four catches on 58 routes run in the three games since Rice debuted, and I think that’s what we can expect moving forward.
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He had a pair of spike plays in Buffalo before the bye (gains of 33 and 40 yards), and that’s the outlook moving forward. If you’re rolling the dice, you could do worse than tie your wagon to Mahomes, but I’m not in any hurry to go this direction consistently.
It’s Brown over Tyquan Thornton if you’re throwing darts in Kansas City.
Rashee Rice, WR
Rice has 24 touches and three touchdowns in his three games since returning, and Andy Reid is clearly interested in making up for lost time.
He’s getting the scripted looks early (eight first-quarter targets), is dangerous on extended throws (six catches on seven targets of 10+ yards), and is featured in close (seven red zone touches).
He does it differently than Puka Nacua, Drake London, or Ja’Marr Chase, and that’s OK. Mahomes is comfortable with his fate being in Rice’s hands, and that’s all that matters.
There aren’t five receivers in the game that boast a better volume/skill combination moving forward, and that means you’re going to continue to get great return on an investment that took some conviction back in August.
Xavier Worthy, WR
Xavier Worthy’s yards per route run are down 25.2% since Rice returned from suspension, and he’s yet to earn a single end zone target across those three games (98 routes).
With Rice in the mix, Travis Kelce healthy, and Tyquan Thornton at least around (13 routes run in two of the three Rice games), the floor/ceiling math is trending away from Worthy.
That’s not to say that Kansas City’s speed demon is a complete fade (he handled an end-around on their fourth offensive snap in Week 9 against the Bills), but I do think the days of starting him with confidence are gone.
He’s a player I’m flexing when my matchup calls for an infusion of upside and the opponent is at least neutral.
This isn’t that. Worthy sits outside of my top 30 at the position this week, and I’d rather look in the direction of boring high-floor options (Khalil Shakir types).
Travis Kelce, TE
Kelce was effective in his only game against these Broncos last season (20.4 PPR points), but 5.3 yards per target is the part of that game I believe is most sticky, which is why I’m proceeding with caution.
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It’s not a huge sample this season, but Kelce has lost more than a full yard off of his yards-per-route average when Rice is on the field (1.07) than off the field (2.08), and if the Broncos have a blueprint of sorts to slowing him down further, the floor is low.
That said, because of a high pass projection for the Chiefs this week, Kelce’s ceiling is also enticing, and let’s face it, upside at the TE position is almost impossible to turn down.
Kelce is a play for me this week with the understanding that there is risk involved. The reflex seems to be to play the future Hall of Famer without a second thought: I don’t think that’s right, but I think you’re on the right side of math this weekend.