The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Los Angeles Chargers players heading into their matchup with the Tennessee Titans to help you craft a winning lineup.
Justin Herbert, QB
What we saw from Herbert was just as special as you thought it was in the moment.
- 3 pass TDs
- 9.1 yards per pass
- 62 rushing yards
It was his second such game like that and just the 10th in the NFL since the start of 2018 (Lamar Jackson has six of them, while Josh Allen and Kyler Murray have one apiece).
Is he essentially a less refined postseason Patrick Mahomes? That is, someone who can kill you from the pocket and is willing to make the big play at the right moment with his legs?
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That’s setting the bar a little high, and there are still some glitches in the decision-making, but Jim Harbaugh has empowered his quarterback to such a degree that I trust him as a fringe Tier 1 option at the position.
This matchup is great, though you need to worry a bit about the game script. You’re playing Herbert weekly without a second thought, and you better make it count: you’re not getting him at nearly the price you did this summer heading into the 2022 season.
Kimani Vidal, RB
Hassan Haskins (hamstring) sat out on Thursday night, and Joe Alt (ankle) was back in the mix, creating a perfect storm around the value of Kimani Vidal.
He paid it off in a big way with 127 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings.
When Omarion Hampton went down, we assumed the role would be a committee one. But with 18+ carries and 117+ rushing yards in two of three games (the exception being a game against the Colts, when the Chargers were playing catch-up for most of the afternoon), this is a bellcow situation.
For now.
This is the final week of Hampton’s mandated absence, and while he’s expected to be sidelined a bit longer (Los Angeles goes on bye in Week 12 if you’re curious), Vidal’s role isn’t going to get you through the playoffs.
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We can worry about that situation when we get there. I’m all for looking long-term, but Vidal was found value when you acquired him off waivers, and you’re simply in the business of squeezing as much juice out of him as you can.
He’s a lineup lock this weekend, and I don’t think your confidence in him should hinge on the availability of Haskins. In his two games with double-digit carries, a safe projection for Sunday with the Bolts favored by more than a touchdown, Vidal has produced big post-contact numbers. This skill set projects well against a Titans defense that has been a bottom-10 unit in that regard all season long.
Thinking that Vidal will flirt with 20 PPR points is probably a touch optimistic, but 13-16 is a solid bet, and we will take that every week.
Keenan Allen, WR
A low-volume passing attack hurt Keenan Allen’s bottom line on Thursday night (four catches for 44 yards), but an 80% catch rate and a 20.8% target share are nothing to sneeze at.
Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston have had roller coaster seasons up to this point, something that Allen seems immune to. His ceiling may not touch what his younger teammates have access to, but the elevated floor is valuable (I’d argue more valuable in some roster constructions).
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Allen has more catches on third down this season than any of his teammates have targets, and his stabilizing force is what gives this pass-centric offense a level of balance. He’s an extension of their running game, and until proven otherwise, I’m ranking that as PPR lineup viable every single week.
Ladd McConkey, WR
We are so back.
It was delayed, but you’re now in a position to get what you paid for this summer in Ladd McConkey, as he’s seen double-digit targets in consecutive weeks and has scored in three of his past four.
Over his past three games, 40.9% of his receptions have come on balls thrown past the sticks, a nice spike from the 23.8% rate he had prior and a path to real upside as he absorbs some of the role that the ghost of Quentin Johnston has left behind.
I’m not ready to call him a top 10 receiver the rest of the way just yet. I still worry about a bit of skill repetition with Keenan Allen, but he’s the Bolt WR I want, and he’s a no-brainer starter in all formats.
Quentin Johnston, WR
This is getting ugly in a hurry, and while I don’t think we are fully back to the Quentin Johnston expectations (or lack thereof) from the past, we are certainly trending in that direction.
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On Thursday night against the Vikings, he turned 27 routes into zero targets. Forget the zero receptions; he didn’t even earn the right to have a chance to hit the box score. Had the Chargers struggled, I could hop in here and say things like “something has to change” or parrot the great Jerry Seinfeld with “if everything they did was wrong, then the opposite has to be right”.
They won 37-10 and looked great.
Ladd McConkey is back in form, and 90% of balls thrown to Keenan Allen or Oronde Gadsden were completed. The explosion of the tight end has come entirely at the cost of their former WR1 (last three games: six receptions on 115 routes), and with the team averaging 30 points over that stretch, what motivation do they have to revert to what we saw in September?
None.
Herbert has dialed back the aggression by 5.1%, making this offense more consistent. Johnston is going to have viable fantasy weeks moving forward, but he’s now much closer to the Matthew Golden mold of field-stretching asset than the Pickens version we saw early on.
Hold for roster depth, but I’m not going to be comfortable in starting him until after I see proof of concept in this post-Oronde Gadsden breakout world.
Oronde Gadsden, TE
Every year, we see a handful of players go from nothing to an impactful role. Usually, it’s injury-related, but that’s not always the case, and it seems like the Chargers have just sort of stumbled upon a difference maker with Oronde Gadsden.
After not playing in either of the first two games, his role in this pass-heavy offense has taken off, and he’s now run 110 routes over the past three weeks, a role that ranks up there with any of the well-compensated TEs in the league.
On Thursday night, he became the first player at the position this season with 65+ receiving yards in three straight games and got there in an extremely efficient manner (19 catches on 22 targets).
Neither the volume nor the catch rate projects as the most sustainable stats on the board for a player in an offense with three very viable receivers, not to mention that there have been an average of 55 total points scored across those games, a scoring environment that is not likely to stick.
That said, he’s an athletic prospect who plays with a franchise QB in an offense that prefers to pass. That’s all it takes to lock him into the TE1 range and, given his success, I see no reason why Jim Harbaugh would tweak his role any time soon.