The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Los Angeles Chargers players heading into their matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars to help you craft a winning lineup.
Justin Herbert, QB
Justin Herbert wasn’t at his best against the Steelers last week, but he did have a 15+ yard rush for the third straight game, and the rushing numbers have been far more stable than I would have ever guessed.
The Jags blitz at the seventh-highest rate in the league, which could put Herbert on the run and thus introduce some big plays. Before the poor showing in Week 10, Herbert had four straight games with multiple TD passes and completed over 67% of his passes in four of five.
I don’t want to speak out of turn, but current Herbert, in terms of fantasy, feels like Patrick Mahomes down the stretch of seasons in years past: an elite arm talent that is stretching his legs as a runner.
You’re looking at my QB5 this week and the top Tier 2 QB in my rankings for the remainder of the season.
Kimani Vidal, RB
The script on Sunday night fed into the Kimani Vidal profile, and he pounded away. In the win over the Steelers, the 2024 sixth-round pick picked up 95 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries.
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He had his moments of explosion (four runs of 10+ yards) and struggled at other times, but this is clearly his backfield and, given the desire for balance, I think projecting 17+ touches in games where LA is favored makes plenty of sense.
We can cross the Omarion Hampton bridge when we get to it, but right now, you have a locked-in RB2 who is facing the fifth-worst red zone defense in the league.
Omarion Hampton, RB
Hampton had a pair of top-7 finishes at the position before getting hurt, and while Vidal has run well in his place, this team is clearly trying to make the most of a strong roster, and the rookie adds multiple dimensions to their upside.
Reports have surfaced that his window to return won’t open until after the Week 12 bye, and that’s a pain for fantasy managers. Still, their patience with the budding star increases the chances that he hits the ground running. With the Cowboys in Week 16, Hampton very well could bookend this season with elite fantasy production and give you a boost at the perfect time.
Keenan Allen, WR
Keenan Allen broke the all-time franchise record for receptions on Sunday night with a cheap flip play at the end of the blowout, and that’s a great accomplishment for him.
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For fantasy aficionados, however, under 60 receiving yards in six of seven games with only one touchdown over that stretch isn’t cutting it. His three lowest target games of the season have come in succession during this winning streak, and while I want to bet on a bounce-back, there just aren’t many statistical signs that suggest it is inevitable.
Nothing in his profile (slot rate, snap share, aDOT, etc.) looks drastically different from his hot start; it’s more the players around him. Ladd McConkey is coming on in a big way after a sluggish start, Oronde Gadsden II has been a godsend at the TE position, and the running game is settling in.
Allen projects as a player who will mean more to the Chargers than to your fantasy team as the postseason nears. Depending on your matchup, I don’t think it would be crazy to consider home run hitters (Rashid Shaheed, Keon Coleman, and Christian Watson types) over Allen this week: he’s a volume-reliant receiver whose role is declining.
Ladd McConkey, WR
McConkey has had one “down” game since September and is back to offering the type of floor/ceiling combination that we saw from him as a rookie.
His 12.2-yard aDOT against the Steelers last week was his highest of the season, and it resulted in his first performance of over 100 receiving yards in 2022. There is still plenty of target competition in his high-powered offense, but after taking a month to adjust, it would appear that the versatile McConkey is locked in.
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The Jags have seen a WR1 clear 22 PPR points in three of their past four games, and while putting those sorts of expectations on a receiver with six targets in consecutive weeks isn’t wise, I think we can say with confidence that he is the WR1 in this offense, and it wouldn’t shock me if he finished as a WR1 in this spot (especially should Amon-Ra St. Brown be limited).
Quentin Johnston, WR
The splits for Quentin Johnston pre-/post-injury are notable, especially with a pair of his teammates thriving in expanded roles.
Weeks 1-5: 22.7% target share, 12.1 aDOT, 30% deep target rate
- Weeks 7-10: 15.8% target share, 7.0 aDOT, 22.7% deep target rate
Johnston is more of the splash play option in this receiver room, but with the reduction of his role, he has come up with fewer air yards per target, a deadly combination.
This matchup doesn’t really worry me (30th in pass TD% since October 1), and if Gadsden misses this game, he’ll elevate in my rankings, but for right now, I’ve got him outside of my top 30 receivers, behind “safer” players like Khalil Shakir.
Oronde Gadsden II, TE
A quad bruise cost Gadsden time last week and has the breakout tight end listed as day-to-day as the team prepares for Week 11.
I hate to oversimplify things here, but following Los Angeles’s actions is the play. They may sit him for this game, knowing that they have their bye in Week 12 and bigger fish to fry sooner than later (Eagles and Chiefs in Weeks 14-15).
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If they elect to skirt this as an excuse to buy him plenty of recovery time, it tells me that they are very confident in his status, and thus, we can trust him to be a valued member of this high-pass-rate offense.
Should he sit, the TE streaming situation is bleak, depending on your league. Harold Fannin and Theo Johnson are my two favorites, but if you have to dig deeper, you’re getting into the “ride-the-Joe-Flacco heater” range and hoping a guy like Noah Fant stumbles into the end zone.
It sounds like, at worst, you’re dealing with a minor inconvenience for a player that was essentially found money.