The key to success in fantasy football is finding value. But it’s just as essential to avoid players that provide negative value. We need players who will offer more fantasy points than what is expected based on their ADP. We also need to prevent players who score fewer fantasy points than their ADP suggests.
After assessing all 32 teams, here is one bust candidate from every NFL team.
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR
Could it be anyone else? Last year’s premier bust wide receiver is Arizona’s top candidate for a repeat performance. That’s not to say Marvin Harrison Jr. can bust quite as hard as he did last year.
In 2024, Harrison Jr. became the highest-drafted rookie wide receiver in the history of fantasy football, and it was not close and will likely never be matched. Saddled with late-first/early-second round draft capital, Harrison Jr. averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR39.
Usually, that kind of performance would send Harrison Jr.’s ADP tumbling down draft boards. But this isn’t 2017 anymore. The fantasy community charges for breakouts in advance.
Harrison Jr.’s ADP, while not quite where it was last year, is still way up at WR15. It will cost you an early third-round selection to acquire the services of the sophomore WR.
Now, of course, Harrison Jr. is still the same guy who was the most outstanding WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. If he ascended into the ranks of the elite this year, it would be far from shocking. However, we’re still being asked to pay a price nowhere near what he showcased as a rookie.
The Cardinals are returning the same quarterback who struggles with downfield throws, the same offensive coordinator who schemed his WR1 ZERO SCREENS the entire season, and the same head coach who let it all happen. I pose this simple question: What if nothing changes?
Atlanta Falcons: Drake London, WR
Let’s get one thing straight: I don’t believe Drake London is going to be a bust. This is simply an exercise in identifying the most likely bust candidate on every team.
The Atlanta Falcons only have two players going in the early rounds: Bijan Robinson and London. Therefore, our choices are limited to them, as it’s impossible for Darnell Mooney or Michael Penix Jr. to bust based on their ADPs.
London averaged 16.5 PPG last season, finishing as the overall WR13. The previous two seasons, London averaged 10.5 and 10.9 PPG. Of course, he was the victim of horrendous coaching and even worse quarterback play. However, the fact remains that we have one season of WR1 production and two seasons of WR4 production.
To be clear, London is not going to bust. He’s more likely to improve. But between London and Robinson, London is the more likely bust candidate.
Baltimore Ravens: Mark Andrews, TE
Mark Andrews goes late enough in drafts that if you take him and he busts, he probably won’t harm your team too much. But Lamar Jackson is a sure thing, and I refuse to bet against Derrick Henry. The reality is that there is a realistic chance Andrews ends up being completely worthless in fantasy this season.
Andrews was trending toward being a massive bust last season. From Weeks 1-4, he scored a total of 12.5 fantasy points. At that point, he found his name on many cut lists, including yours truly’s.
What followed was a restoration of Andrews’ fantasy value, but not in a way that was all that encouraging. Andrews wound up getting to 11.1 PPG on the season, but he did so by going on an absurd touchdown scoring streak. From Week 6 to 18, Andrews scored at least once in all but two games.
Andrews is now 30 years old and coming off a season where he posted just a 15.3% target share. He was targeted on only 23.6% of his routes and ran a route on just 58.3% of the Ravens’ passing plays.
Isaiah Likely has proven capable of being a premier pass-catching tight end. He’s younger and more explosive. There’s a world where he takes the TE1 job from Andrews. There’s also a world where Andrews doesn’t have it anymore, and without the touchdowns, he’s just a guy who averaged under 40 receiving yards per game.
Andrews is at significant risk of being a fantasy bust in 2025.
Buffalo Bills: James Cook, RB
At first glance, James Cook appeared to be incredibly overvalued and a strong bust candidate. While he remains the most likely bust candidate on the Bills, his price is not where it would’ve been in previous years, coming off the season he just had.
Cook averaged 16.7 PPG, finishing as the overall RB11. This was despite his volume decreasing from the previous year. The only change was a massive explosion in scoring. Cook found the end zone a total of nine times in his first two seasons combined. He scored 18 times last year alone.
James Cook with the TD in Buffalo!
📱: Stream #INDvsBUF on NFL+ https://t.co/bBFpXevVUR pic.twitter.com/aE8UGgBzba
— NFL (@NFL) August 12, 2023
In 2023, Cook had exactly one rushing touchdown from inside the five-yard line, and he only had two rushing touchdowns the entire season. In 2024, Cook scored 16 of his 18 touchdowns on the ground, with seven of them coming from inside the five-yard line.
Cook had five carries inside the five-yard line the entire 2023 season. He had 15 such carries in 2024.
If Cook’s scoring regresses to where it was in 2023 or 2022, he will have a tough time living up to his RB14 ADP. However, the fact that he typically goes in the fourth round means that regression is baked in. He could still bust, but it is far less likely thanks to the reasonableness of the fantasy community.
Carolina Panthers: Tetairoa McMillan, WR
This one’s pretty simple. Tetairoa McMillan is a rookie with a WR22 ADP — a lofty price for someone tied to Bryce Young, a still-unproven quarterback, in an offense that may have trouble putting up points.
I am high on McMillan and believe he is worth his price. However, it’s easy to see the path to failure.
What if McMillan puts up something like 62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns? That’d be a solid rookie season. Funny enough, those are the exact numbers Marvin Harrison Jr. posted last year.
While McMillan’s ADP is nowhere near as lofty as Harrison’s was last season, those numbers still only got the Cardinals receiver to 11.6 PPG and a WR39 finish. If McMillan posts something similar, he will fall well short of ADP expectations.
Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR
Rome Odunze’s WR35 ADP feels reasonable for a player taken early in the 2024 NFL Draft. But for someone who just averaged 8.5 PPG — good for a WR56 finish — it also feels a bit aggressive.
If Odunze takes a massive leap forward during his second season with Caleb Williams and an unquantifiable coaching upgrade, it wouldn’t shock anyone. On the flip side, what if Odunze isn’t that good?
The Bears still have DJ Moore, added Colston Loveland in the first round, and picked up Luther Burden III in the second. With D’Andre Swift also contributing as a reliable receiving back, Caleb Williams has plenty of weapons if Odunze doesn’t pan out.
Out of everyone on the roster, with Odunze being the same guy he was last year, it is most probable that he’s the Bears’ bust.
Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB
By no means is this an indictment of Joe Burrow as a quarterback. He is unquestionably one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL and very much capable of winning a Super Bowl. Matthew Stafford also won a Super Bowl in a year when he threw 41 touchdown passes for 4,668 yards. He averaged 20.4 PPG, finishing as the QB11.
What’s the relevance of Stafford’s 2021 season? It is eerily similar to Burrow’s 2024.
Last year, Burrow threw for 4,918 yards and 43 touchdowns, averaging 22.5 PPG. That is the level of proficiency it takes for a pocket passer to reach elite QB1 numbers.
Burrow had to do that because the Bengals had an all-time terrible defense. It’s reasonable to expect their defense to improve moderately this year based on sheer randomness.
A couple fewer shootouts and a slight drop from his 652 pass attempts could cost Burrow a couple of fantasy points per game. If he throws for 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns, that would be a phenomenal season. It would also virtually guarantee Burrow doesn’t live up to his overall QB4 ADP.
The Bengals could have a great season that sees them make the playoffs, all the while Burrow is simultaneously an NFL MVP candidate and a fantasy football bust.
Cleveland Browns: Jerry Jeudy, WR
Jerry Jeudy had a breakout season last year, averaging a career-best 14.2 PPG, finishing as the overall WR21. This year, he won’t be drafted until the WR30.
Seems like a value, right?
It certainly could be. Jeudy proved last season that he’s capable of a WR2 finish. But was he truly a WR2?
Jerry Jeudy’s per-game averages without Jameis Winston:
6.4 targets
3.8 receptions
52.2 yards
0.2 TDs
10.2 PPR PPGJerry Jeudy’s per-game averages with Jameis Winston:
9.9 targets
7.0 receptions
112.3 yards
0.4 TD
20.6 PPR PPGIdk guys, I’m thinking Jeudy’s second-half… pic.twitter.com/QMF5x8RsJI
— Addison Hayes (@amazehayes_) June 8, 2025
As a reminder, Jeudy also had a 40.5-point game against the Broncos in Week 13. Of course, that game counts, but even if we include every game he played with Jameis Winston, Jeudy still only averaged 12.5 PPG in his other 16 contests.
The Browns are very likely to start at least three different quarterbacks this season, none of whom will be Winston. Just two years ago, Jeudy averaged 8.9 PPG. A return even close to that level would make Jeudy a massive bust, even at his depressed ADP.
Dallas Cowboys: Javonte Williams, RB
It’s admittedly tough for someone with an RB37 ADP to qualify as a bust. No one’s drafting Javonte Williams expecting immediate fantasy production — they’re taking a flier, hoping he recaptures his pre-injury form and claims the RB1 role in an offense without a clear backfield leader.
With that said, even at his price, Williams’ floor is as low as it gets. He could legitimately lose his job to Jaydon Blue and even fall behind Miles Sanders.
There’s a nonzero chance Williams doesn’t even finish the season on the roster. That’s the worst-case scenario. If that happens, it would be fair to classify Williams as a bust.
Denver Broncos: R.J. Harvey, RB
Fantasy managers love rookies. There are many reasons to like R.J. Harvey. The Broncos took him in the second round of the NFL Draft, significantly higher than anyone projected. Clearly, they believe in him.
His only competition for touches is J.K. Dobbins, who signed a one-year deal close to the veteran minimum. Entering camp, it seems incredibly likely that Harvey will be the lead back.
I wouldn’t project Harvey to bust, but it’s easy to see why. His RB20 ADP is relatively high for a rookie with his talent profile. What if Harvey ends up in a near-even timeshare with Dobbins? What if he’s just not that good?
Historically, it’s been a mixed bag when it comes to Day 2 running backs.
Since 2011, we’ve seen 11 Day 2 RBs taken in the first 5 rounds of fantasy drafts.
RJ Harvey currently looking like he will join that crew per @Underdog ADP- 5.07/RB17. pic.twitter.com/zryQc5NkYE
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) May 20, 2025
Not all of these backs were equal in terms of caliber of prospect or quality of landing spot. But we can still utilize this data. Shout out to Kyle for putting this together.
For me, the most apparent parallel is to Ameer Abdullah. As a rookie in 2015, Abdullah walked into just as barren of a running back room as Harvey is now. The Lions had a plodder with no receiving acumen in Joique Bell and a smaller scat back in Theo Riddick. While Riddick is a far better pass-catcher than McLaughlin or Dobbins, the overall setup of the backfields is similar.
To be fair, Abdullah’s ADP spiked about three rounds based on a singular preseason run. But I do distinctly remember him going in the fifth round. He averaged 7.3 fantasy points per game and was one of the worst picks you could’ve made.
None of this is to say that Harvey will be a bust. Instead, it’s to point out that even in what looks like an ideal situation, Harvey is no lock to produce.
Detroit Lions: Jared Goff, QB
In an era where mobile quarterbacks dominate the QB1s, Jared Goff was able to break through with 19.8 PPG, suitable for an overall QB7 finish. This year, his performance has earned him an ADP of QB10. It’s tough to get behind drafting Goff at that spot.
Goff is coming off a season in which he set career highs in completion percentage (72.4%), yards per attempt (8.6), and passing touchdowns (37). Owner of a career 4.8% touchdown rate, Goff was at 6.9% last season.
Ben Johnson is gone, and the Lions are set to face a more difficult schedule this season. Even if Goff’s performance doesn’t dip, it’s easy to see how his fantasy numbers can. A regression to the mean in his touchdown rate would put him at around 27 touchdowns.
If you take 10 scores away from him and keep everything else the same, he’d go from 19.8 PPG to about 17.5 PPG. Those are not QB1 numbers. It’s just hard to see Goff doing any better than he did in 2024.
Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs, RB
Josh Jacobs’ role is secure enough that he is unlikely to have a massive bust. But you can certainly see the path to him at least underperforming.
Jacobs benefited from a lot going his way last season. Rookie third-rounder MarShawn Lloyd couldn’t stay on the field, resulting in the Packers having two replacement-level talents behind him.
Even though Jacobs only saw a 66.5% opportunity share, that still amounted to 301 carries, as the Packers ran the ball frequently. Their 53% neutral game script run rate led the league, which is shocking for a team without a rushing quarterback. It also didn’t help that Jordan Love was banged up throughout the entire season.
By sheer variance, the Packers are bound to throw more this season. A healthy Lloyd will likely eat into Jacobs’ workload more than Emanuel Wilson or Chris Brooks did. And then there’s the matter of Jacobs scoring a touchdown in each of his final eight games, including a total of 15 touchdowns in his final 11.
Jacobs’ RB8 ADP is quite lofty. Even a mid-to-high RB2 finish would be underwhelming, given his cost.
Houston Texans: Joe Mixon, RB
Switching teams at the age of 28 often spells disaster for running backs. But we saw several veteran backs change teams last year, and most were successful, bucking the historical trend.
Instead of taking one step toward retirement, Joe Mixon posted the second-best season of his career, averaging 17.2 PPG.
Mixon was his usual self last season. He’s never been overly efficient, but he can handle heavy volume and gets the job done; he’s a true professional.
This year, there’s not necessarily any reason to project a decline for Mixon. He is another year older, but has no serious competition for touches, and the offense should be better behind improved play from C.J. Stroud and the offensive line.
The reason Mixon could be a bust, though, is due to his age and how he is perceived as being unable to overcome poor matchups. In the fantasy playoffs, Mixon posted games of 10.6, 8.1, and 5.9 fantasy points.
Now 29 years old, it would not be a complete shock if he started to decline. Combine that with the possibility that the Texans end up facing a series of complex run defenses, and we can see how Mixon could end up underperforming his RB17 ADP.
Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor, RB
When discussing specific bust candidates, there is, quite literally, no other option on the Colts than Jonathan Taylor. He is the only Colt being drafted inside the top 100 picks.
So, what is the path to Taylor busting? We have a blueprint.
In 2022, injuries limited Taylor to 11 games. But even when he played, Taylor woefully underperformed, averaging just 13.3 PPG.
Over the past two seasons, Taylor’s target share has been 8% and 7.6%. He doesn’t supplement his elite rushing with much receiving work. And he will undoubtedly have to deal with several starts from Anthony Richardson this season.
When Richardson isn’t starting, it will be Daniel Jones, which is equally problematic because the offense is unlikely to move the ball particularly well. So, with Richardson, Taylor’s receiving will be even less. With Jones, the offense may not put him in a position to score. Taylor needs to score to produce.
In 2022, Taylor had four touchdowns in 11 games. A similarly down year in the touchdown department would have Taylor struggling to live up to his RB9 ADP.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Hunter, WR
It is accurate to describe Travis Hunter as a generational talent. However, he’s not a generational wide receiver or a generational quarterback. He’s generational because he’s an NFL-level player at both positions.
All signs indicate Hunter will primarily play wide receiver. However, he is going to play some cornerback. It’s doubtful that Hunter will be an every-down player at wide receiver. Additionally, Hunter has no chance at being the Jaguars’ WR1, as that role belongs to Brian Thomas Jr.
Hunter’s ADP is reasonable at WR31. But consider what Marvin Harrison Jr. did as a rookie. He caught 62 passes for 885 yards and 8 touchdowns on a 22.2% target share.
Do we think Hunter is likely to reach those numbers? If he does, he will not meet the expectations based on his ADP. And if he’s worse, he will be a bust.
Kansas City Chiefs: Xavier Worthy, WR
I particularly enjoy betting on sophomore wide receivers. Historically, they have proven to be excellent investments. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t easy to see a path to failure for Xavier Worthy.
Last season, Worthy only averaged 11.0 PPG, finishing as the overall WR40. Early in the season, he was used situationally and mostly on downfield targets, many of which did not connect. It wasn’t until late in the season that Worthy took over as Patrick Mahomes’ WR1, in part due to a slew of injuries to the Chiefs’ wide receivers.
Worthy played almost all of his rookie season without Rashee Rice or Hollywood Brown on the field. Both are back healthy this year.
If Rice resumes dominating the underneath targets like he was late 2023 and before he got hurt in 2024, Worthy could regress to a boom-or-bust deep threat, reliant almost exclusively on splash plays. A season similar to his rookie year would be a massive disappointment relative to his WR25 ADP.
Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers, TE
Again, I must remind everyone that this is purely assessing the most likely bust candidate. By no means is a generational tight end entering his sophomore season someone we should expect to bust.
With that said, we can paint the picture for Brock Bowers failing to meet expectations from a fantasy perspective.
Last season, the Raiders wanted to be a run-first team. Unfortunately, when your running backs are Zamir White, Alexander Mattison, Ameer Abdullah, and Sincere McCormick, that’s just not possible. As a result, the Raiders were one of the most pass-heavy teams in the league, throwing the ball 58% of the time in neutral game script.
As a result, Bowers saw 153 targets, catching 112 for 1,194 yards and 5 touchdowns. He averaged 15.5 PPG.
Now, Bowers is going firmly in the second round. Elite tight ends are a difference maker in fantasy. However, they are often not worth selecting at this high price.
The Raiders drafted Ashton Jeanty and have a new head coach in Pete Carroll, as well as a new quarterback in Geno Smith. We could see a reduction in passing volume, as well as Smith pushing the ball downfield more, which is not where Bowers operates. All of this could lead to Bowers not being worth his lofty price tag.
Los Angeles Chargers: Omarion Hampton, RB
As a rookie, Omarion Hampton’s ADP is all the way up at RB18. He is the Chargers’ running back of the future. But are we sure he’s the running back of the present?
The Chargers signed Najee Harris back in March. Harris is going to play. The question is how much.
Fantasy managers are expecting Hampton and Harris to open in a timeshare that favors the rookie, but for Hampton to slowly take more and more of the workload as the season progresses. The path to Hampton busting is that it simply doesn’t happen.
Harris maintains an 8-10 carry-per-game role, as well as operates as the primary goal-line back. Add in the fact that Greg Roman offenses historically do not throw to running backs, and it isn’t easy to see how Hampton lives up to his ADP without the necessary volume.
Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams, RB
Ugh. Here we go again. I didn’t believe in Kyren Williams when he broke out. I was afraid to endorse him the following year. Now, for a third time, Williams is a bust candidate.
He will probably prove all the doubters wrong again because he gets the job done and has Sean McVay’s heart. However, it’s difficult to shake the stigma of being a Day 3 pick.
Williams remains heavily reliant on volume and touchdowns. He saw just an 8% target share last season, which is par for the course for McVay’s backfields. They do not throw to running backs.
The Rams continue to stockpile depth at the position. So far, it hasn’t impacted Williams’ usage. But now they have Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter behind their starter. I remain concerned that if Williams misses a significant amount of time and either Corum, Hunter, or both excel in his absence, he may not regain his previous role.
Williams carries an RB11 ADP. He will probably be fine. But a little bad luck in the touchdown department or an undeniable play from one of his backups could result in Williams being a massive bust.
Miami Dolphins: Tyreek Hill, WR
For the first time in his career, Tyreek Hill was a bust in 2024. He was a consensus top-three wide receiver and averaged a career-worst 12.9 PPG, finishing as the overall WR29.
Of course, Hill had a lot of things go wrong last year. He had his off-field issues. He played through torn ligaments in his wrist. And Tua Tagovailoa missed six games.
Over the past three seasons, Hill has averaged 20.5 PPG with Tagovailoa under center and 11.6 PPG without him. Tua matters…a lot.
The path to Hill busting this year is straightforward to see. He’s 31 years old, which means his decline could occur at any time now, and he could experience a significant decline this year, which would not be unprecedented.
Additionally, Tagovailoa may continue to struggle with staying healthy. The offensive line could remain a problem, forcing Tua to get rid of the ball quickly, thereby preventing deep routes from developing. And Jaylen Waddle could emerge as the Dolphins’ WR1.
Hill is the cheapest he’s been since his sophomore year, when fantasy managers hadn’t quite bought in yet. But he still costs an early third-round pick. I can tell you one thing for sure: Hill will not return a third-round value. He will either be an elite WR1 or he will completely fall off.
Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Jones, RB
Let’s be real. No one thinks Justin Jefferson carries any bust risk outside of injury. And where Jordan Addison goes in drafts, it will be difficult for him to be a bust.
Aaron Jones, though, is firmly in play.
Jones will turn 31 years old before the season ends. He’s coming off a season in which he played every game and saw a career high with 255 carries, but had a couple of nagging injuries along the way.
The Vikings made it a point to bring in Jordan Mason to provide them with a capable back behind Jones, something they lacked last season.
#Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell on his backfield:
“Aaron Jones is at his best when we can keep him fresh, we can keep him truly as that 1a, because we’ve got the 1b with him, and that was Jordan Mason.” pic.twitter.com/5nGWoeX3vb
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) April 1, 2025
A reduction in volume is baked into Jones’ RB27 ADP. He’s probably a great pick at that price. However, the path to his downfall is relatively straightforward. His play declines, and Mason forces this into an even split, with the younger back earning the goal-line role.
New England Patriots: TreVeyon Henderson, RB
Last year, the Patriots signed Rhamondre Stevenson to a four-year extension. This year, TreVeyon Henderson’s ADP is 17 spots ahead of Stevenson.
I like Henderson and am always more willing to invest in highly drafted rookies than in established, low-upside veterans. By no means is this an implication that Stevenson should precede Henderson. Rather, what if the gap isn’t that large?
Stevenson isn’t going to go away. He will have a role. At 231 pounds, he’s very likely to maintain goal-line work. Henderson should be the primary passing down back, but is that enough to justify his RB22 ADP?
Henderson can be a very effective running back for the Patriots, while failing to meet expectations from a fantasy perspective, especially if he only scores a handful of touchdowns.
New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara, RB
Year after year, Alvin Kamara keeps getting it done.
Alvin Kamara fantasy finish by season (PPG):
RB5
RB3
RB13
RB4
RB1
RB8
RB4
RB4The high end consistency is just unmatched by anyone
— Chris O’Brien (@17gamepace) June 1, 2025
At some point, the gravy train will stop. That’s the only case for Kamara being a bust — that it’s this year.
This will be the worst offensive situation Kamara has ever found himself in. The Saints are probably going to start rookie second-rounder Tyler Shough at quarterback. Kamara is 30 years old. If the elite target share drops even a little bit and he can’t find the end zone more than a handful of times, Kamara could end up disappointing at his RB15 ADP…but probably not.
New York Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Cam Skattebo, RBs
Unless you think Malik Nabers has some realistic bust risk, the only possible candidates are the running backs. The Giants don’t have anyone else being drafted in a fantasy-relevant range.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Cam Skattebo have similar ADPs, going within five spots of each other at RB30 and RB34. The path to one or both of them busting is that they split work in a bad offense, and neither has a role significant enough to be startable in fantasy.
Tracy averaged 13.2 PPG from Week 5 onward, which is the point at which he became the lead back. During the season, he averaged 10.7 PPG. If he’s mired in a timeshare with Skattebo, it’s possible neither of them can get to 10 PPG.
Given their ADPs, it might be a stretch to call them busts if that’s the case. But they would surely be disappointments, at the very least.
New York Jets: Garrett Wilson, WR
This is the lowest-hanging fruit, as Garrett Wilson has consistently underperformed expectations every year of his career, except for his rookie season.
In year two, fantasy managers paid for a massive leap forward after he posted 12.7 PPG as a rookie. They got…the same thing (12.5 PPG).
Last year, once again, Wilson was a late-first/early second-round pick. He was better, but still averaged just 14.8 PPG, finishing as the overall WR18. He certainly qualifies as a bust.
This year, for the third consecutive season, Wilson carries a draft-day price, WR14, higher than he has ever finished.
The Jets will get better quarterback play from Justin Fields than they got from Aaron Rodgers. However, with Fields comes a reduction in passing volume due to his mobility.
Wilson has no competition for targets, but it’s easy to see this being a low-volume passing attack that doesn’t generate enough plays for Wilson to return value.
Philadelphia Eagles: Saquon Barkley, RB
The odds are highly against Saquon Barkley being a bust. However, it’s not as if he hasn’t disappointed before.
After averaging 24.0 PPG as a rookie, Barkley was the overall RB1 in fantasy drafts, but only averaged 18.8 PPG as a sophomore. Those are still RB1 numbers, but not overall RB1 numbers.
After returning from a 2020 torn ACL in 2021, Barkley averaged a mere 11.4 PPG. It’s staggering that a season like that was even possible from such an elite talent.
This year, Barkley is the overall RB2, always going within the first couple of picks in fantasy drafts. He doesn’t need to average 22+ PPG again, but he does need to get close.
Barkley ran for 2,005 yards last season. He could easily have another excellent year on the ground, but only rush for 1,600 yards. He also scored 15 touchdowns last season, 11 of which came from at least 19 yards out. That’s not something we can bank on repeating.
With just an 11.4% target share in an offense that only attempted 448 passes, Barkley needs those splash plays to maintain his value.
Imagine he rushes for 1,600 yards, scores 10 touchdowns, and repeats his receiving numbers from last year. That would get him to around 18 PPG. Is that enough to consider him a bust? You be the judge.
Pittsburgh Steelers: DK Metcalf, WR
It started so well for DK Metcalf. He had a strong rookie season that portended his sophomore-year breakout. Given his prospect profile and impressive physical stature and athleticism, fantasy managers pegged Metcalf as the next great wide receiver. Unfortunately, his 17.0 PPG in 2020 would prove to be a mark he never came close to repeating.
Over the past four years, Metcalf has oscillated between low WR2 and high WR3. He’s been good. He’s been fine. He hasn’t been great.
This year, Metcalf’s ADP is at WR25, five spots higher than he finished last year. The presumption is that, even at his advanced age and declining ability, Aaron Rodgers will do a better job getting Metcalf the ball than Russell Wilson or Justin Fields did last season.
The path to Metcalf’s failure is pretty straightforward. The Steelers aim to be a run-first team with a low volume of passing plays. Rodgers gets hurt or completely falls off, forcing Mason Rudolph into action. The Steelers struggle to get anything going offensively, limiting Metcalf to fewer than 900 yards and five touchdowns.
San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey, RB
I mean…could it be anyone else? Christian McCaffrey has been the best player in fantasy in four of the past seven seasons. He’s been a colossal bust in the other three.
Of course, this is entirely injury-related. Typically, when considering bust candidates, injury is a common reason, as it can technically apply to anyone. Football is a violent game. Everyone is an injury risk. However, not everyone is consistently going No. 1 overall, or, in this season’s case, at the half-turn, as they have been hurt three times in the past seven seasons.
By all accounts, McCaffrey is healthy, and there’s no reason, even at age 29, to think there will be even a minor drop-off in ability. But if he gets hurt, it will spell disaster once again.
Seattle Seahawks: Kenneth Walker III, RB
Kenneth Walker III is good at football.
Kenneth Walker lol pic.twitter.com/w1VqoCl34Y
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 18, 2025
The problem for Walker is that he has run behind poor offensive lines, and he struggles to stay healthy.
After two middling years around 13.5 PPG, Walker finally took a step forward in 2024, averaging 16.5 PPG. But we saw in 2022 and 2023 what the downside looks like.
Walker’s RB16 ADP is lower than where he finished last season, but exactly where he finished as a rookie and four spots above where he finished as a sophomore.
While Walker was out last season, Zach Charbonnet proved capable of being a three-down back. And Walker wound up missing six games.
If Walker has health issues again this season, we could see Charbonnet with an increased standalone role. That would invariably cap Walker’s upside and make it difficult for him to return value relative to his ADP.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans, WR
For 11 years, Mike Evans has been one of the safest picks in fantasy. 1,000 receiving yards every season. Rarely misses games. He’s the epitome of solid.
Evans is now 32 years old. He missed three games last season with a hamstring strain. Perhaps at his age, he can no longer play through nagging injuries like he could when he was in his 20s.
The Bucs drafted Emeka Egbuka in the first round and brought back Chris Godwin. This may be the year we see Evans start to decline, allowing the younger players (although I wouldn’t precisely call 29-year-old Godwin young) a chance to step up.
Evans’ WR20 ADP has some decline risk based on. But if the cliff hits, he likely won’t come close to returning that value.
Tennessee Titans: Tony Pollard, RB
It’s tough to see anyone on the Titans truly being a bust, as their highest drafted player is Calvin Ridley in the fifth round, and at WR23. Tony Pollard carries an RB27 ADP, which is five spots lower than where his 12.5 PPG from 2024 landed him. Nevertheless, Pollard is the most likely candidate, at there’s a very talented running back behind him in Tyjae Spears.
Head coach Brian Callahan indicated he wants a more even split between Pollard and Spears this year, after the former saw a 73% opportunity share last season. If Pollard could only muster 12.5 PPG on a top 10 opportunity share, he may very well struggle to even post RB3 numbers if that drops closer to 50%.
Washington Commanders: Terry McLaurin, WR
The case against Terry McLaurin is relatively straightforward. Last season, the Commanders finally got McLaurin a real quarterback, and he posted a career-best 15.8 ppg. Those were borderline WR1 numbers, making Scary Terry one of the best values in 2024. But did McLaurin have a breakout season?
McLaurin’s target share was 23.3%, 34th in the league. That was right in line with what he’s done throughout his career. He was targeted on only 22.7% of his routes run, ranking 44th in the league, which is also right in line with his career averages.
He had 82 catches for 1,096 yards. Since 2020, here are his catch counts by year: 87, 77, 77, 79, 82. He was also between 1,002 and 1,191 yards each of those seasons.
So, what precipitated the spike in fantasy points? It was quite literally one thing: touchdowns. McLaurin scored exactly four or five touchdowns each of the previous four seasons. In 2024, he scored 13 times. If you give him his usual five scores, he would’ve been at 13 ppg, just like always.
Now, he’s being drafted in the third round, as if he’s likely to repeat last season’s performance. McLaurin is unlikely to be a complete bust, but it does seem like there’s a good chance he fails to meet ADP expectations..