The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Tampa Bay Buccaneers players heading into their matchup with the Buffalo Bills to help you craft a winning lineup.
Baker Mayfield, QB
Baker Mayfield broke out of a modest two-game fantasy slump with 273 yards and three scores against the Patriots, funneling 58.1% of his targets to his two most trusted weapons in Emeka Egbuka and Cade Otton.
His willingness to focus on his top playmakers is commendable, and the Bills coughed up 8.2 yards per attempt to Tua Tagovailoa in the upset loss last week, but this is a profile that is still iffy at best.
Mayfield has gone three straight games without a single rushing attempt, and if Egbuka doesn’t land a big play, where does Mayfield look for fantasy production (non-Egbuka Bucs on Sunday: 152 yards on 22 catches and 30 targets)?
The Bills have had over 31 minutes of possession in eight of nine games this season, something that stands to limit Mayfield’s volume. After this week, consider me a Baker bull (Weeks 13-18 schedule: Cardinals, Saints, Falcons, Panthers, Dolphins, and Panthers), but in the scope of Week 11, I’m lower than the industry average and have him on the fringe of usable.
Rachaad White, RB
Sean Tucker became the first running back to run for 50 yards against the Patriots this season, a surprising development on a multitude of fronts.
If I roster Rachaad White, I’m not too worried about it.
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It was a weird instance, but White still played 71.2% of the offensive snaps and more than tripled Tucker’s route count in an offense that wants to move the ball through the air.
Bucky Irving hasn’t played since Week 4, and if we assume he remains sidelined, I have no issue with going back to White as a top 20 play. His fluency in the pass game was on display last week with five catches, and the Bills have had their issues stopping the run at times.
White would enter the week with a 12-14 carry and 4-6 target projection in a game that is projected to see 50 points put on the board.
I don’t care how you feel about White’s between-the-tackle vision: that profile is profitable more often than not in PPR leagues, and we are here to play the odds.
Emeka Egbuka, WR
The efficiency for Egbuka has been in the tank for the three games post-injury (13 catches on 34 targets), but he scored last week for the first time in a month and continues to look seasoned well beyond his age.
The rookie caught both balls thrown his way on the first drive last week against a strong Patriots defense that was fully aware of Tampa Bay’s limitations at receiver, the second of which was a 21-yard score.
Not included in his 115-yard showing on Sunday was a 22-yard DPI flag that he drew, more hidden yardage that projects well.
Egbuka is a victim of his own success in that he’s not demanding shaded coverage schemes, but it’s clear that he has the trust of the ever-aggressive Mayfield, and that should give you more than enough confidence to start him weekly.
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We are 11 weeks into this career, and I’m ranking him alongside future Hall of Famers in Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams.
Cade Otton, TE
Cardio Otton is an empty-calorie route runner when the team around him is healthy, and I stand by that.
It’s simply not the case these days, and really might not be for the remainder of the season.
Otton vacuumed in nine of 12 targets in the loss to the Patriots, a level of efficiency we can bank on with an aDOT below 5.5 yards in four straight contests. He hasn’t scored this season, and that’s not an accident (zero end zone targets and one red zone target on 25 routes), but for those in PPR formats, he’s a real threat to lead the position in receptions every week until told otherwise.
He’s a top-10 tight end this week, and I’d listen to the argument that pushes him up the third tier at the position and lands him closer to TE6 for Week 11.