The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Cleveland Browns players heading into their matchup with the Baltimore Ravens to help you craft a winning lineup.
Dillon Gabriel, QB
I thought we saw some good things from Dillon Gabriel over the weekend. He threw multiple touchdown passes for a second consecutive game, both while outside the pocket (one such TD pass prior).
We do need to acknowledge that it was against a depleted Jets team, fresh off a selling trade deadline that saw them move on from two of their top defenders.
The surging Ravens obviously boast a different challenge and very much put the rookie at risk of a truly poor performance.
Baltimore’s defense is on my DFS radar as a late-afternoon hammer, potentially in a stack with Derrick Henry, though given his production, the Browns are one-dimensional, and we see mistakes in bulk in such a spot.
Dylan Sampson, RB
Quinshon Judkins entered the Week 9 bye a little banged up, and that caused Dylan Sampson to pick up some ownership heading into Week 10 in hopes that the rookie may get an extended opportunity to prove himself for a team that is best served to be looking beyond this season.
Not even close.
Sampson was on the field for just 27.1% of the offensive snaps in the loss to the Jets, while Judkins handled 24 of 28 running back touches.
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The Browns are the fourth-worst scoring offense in the NFL, and given their lack of versatility, there’s no need to carry a handcuff running back any longer. In very deep leagues, Sampson did play more than Jerome Ford, and I think that sticks, but I’m not sold that even a Judkins injury would get him into my top 30 for any one week.
Quinshon Judkins, RB
The Browns are low on options, and that is more clear with each passing week.
Dillon Gabriel has shown some signs of growth recently, but Quinshon Judkins has four games this season with more than 20 carries, and this team largely looks content to keep the clock rolling on their season.
Judkins gets all of that work despite little help. For the season, the rookie is averaging 0.56 yards per carry before contact, and that’s resulted in him checking in under 3.5 yards per carry in four straight games.
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He’s far from a high-usage player in the passing game (eight receiving yards across those four contests), and that’s what gives me pause this week as more than a touchdown underdog at home.
I’m not at all confident that the Browns can keep up, and that means a swarming Ravens defense around this limited offense. Judkins remains on the flex radar because there are only so many options who can get this level of work on a routine basis. Still, something like last week (3.5 yards per touch with limited touchdown equity) is what I’m expecting on Sunday.
Cedric Tillman, WR
A hamstring injury had Cedric Tillman on IR since the beginning of October, but he was activated last week, and the Browns showed no hesitation in throwing him right into the mix (72.9% snap share, 33 routes run) against the Jets.
Two catches for 11 yards isn’t exactly a box score that the Tillman family is putting on the fridge. Still, it was good to see him operating at near full strength, especially with Dillon Gabbert throwing multiple touchdown passes for a second consecutive game.
Of course, nothing is certain in Cleveland. We could see a quarterback change, and we will likely see them struggle to move the ball effectively, regardless.
Season Rankings, Browns
- Points Per Game: 29th
- 3rd Down Efficiency: 30th
- Yards per Game: 31st
- Yards Per Play: 32nd
Even marginal gains would have this offense ranking among the five worst in the league, and that makes starting their WR2 with any level of confidence a long shot.
That said, it’s access to a long shot we didn’t have a week ago, and the schedule, after this week, includes games against the Raiders, Titans, and Bears. I’m not saying that Tillman is a must-roster player. Still, two of those plus spots come in the two remaining bulk bye weeks, and with him averaging 17.0 air yards per touchdown reception, color me intrigued for a dart throw in specific situations.
Jerry Jeudy, WR
Well, well, well, what do we have here?
Jerry Jeudy entered Week 10 having turned 42.7 expected PPR points into 16.5 real-life ones, but against what is left of the Jets, 19.3 expected points yielded 19.8.
It was a clear plan to get their WR1 involved and engaged from the jump (two catches and three targets on the first drive), and it paid off. The 22-yard touchdown wasn’t exactly a work of art, but Dillon Gabbert went his direction in the end zone, across the field, and Jeudy adjusted to make the play against single coverage.
This is what we love to see!
But I’m benching Jeudy this week.
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The Ravens are the opposite of the Jets in that their defense is getting better over time, and they quieted the primary Vikings receivers last weekend, instead forcing Jalen Nailor to beat them.
I expect a similar plan here, and that could be a reverting to the first nine weeks (zero top 30 finishes). If you’re pressed into flexing Jeudy, that’s OK, because the spread suggests we’ll see a high-dropback game for Cleveland. But would I rather play Wan’Dale Robinson against a zone-oriented Packers team on a short week, or Khalil Shakir against a pass-funnel Bucs scheme?
I would, and I’m not thinking too hard about it.
David Njoku, TE
David Njoku has scored in consecutive weeks, and that’s piqued your interest if you’ve gone this direction, but you’re very much working on borrowed time.
He finished the loss against the Jets with just two targets, and more discouraging than that was how his role looked when compared to Harrison Bryant.
Week 10 Fantasy Participation Report
- Njoku: Ran a route on 47.9% of his offensive snaps
- Bryant: Ran a route on 68.1% of his offensive snaps
This is an offense that is broken on many levels, and that has me fading it whenever possible. A tight end committee would certainly qualify as a reason to fade, especially when we are talking about the wrong side of that split.
Harold Fannin Jr., TE
If you’re a big “trust the process” believer, Harold Fannin is the tight end for you to ride into the sunset with this season.
He’s been held under 8.5 PPR points in two of his past three and wasn’t efficient against a JV-level Jets defense last week (four catches on seven targets), but the Browns clearly want him to establish himself as the tight end of the present and future.
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He played one fewer snap than David Njoku last season, but he ran nine more routes and earned five more targets than the veteran. He’s a gifted player, but differences like that don’t happen without the scheme dictating as much, and that’s why I’m scooping up shares where I can for a rookie on a bad team that has the bye week in the rearview.
Njoku got the red-zone look and scored against New York, but it seems only a matter of time before that role is also Fannin’s.
I have him on the fringe of starter-worthy this week (TE13) with the game script likely to tilt in his favor, and I’m fine with being early to the party. The Browns face three very gettable defenses in the four weeks after this matchup (Raiders, Titans, and Bears), leading me to believe that it’s a matter of when, not if, he establishes himself as a top-10 player at the position.