The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Buffalo Bills players heading into their matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs to help you craft a winning lineup.
Josh Allen, QB
Josh Allen pushed across a pair of short touchdowns, which allowed him to regain his elite fantasy form that he had disappeared for a bit. He now has four top-10 finishes this season and remains a Tier 1 option, even if he’s averaging just 194.3 passing yards since that Week 1 comeback against the Ravens.
He now holds the record for career games with a rush and a pass TD (46), and he brings that versatility into a matchup that could prove to be a preview of the AFC Championship.
Allen has reached double-digit rushing attempts in each of his past seven games against the Chiefs, and if that trend continues, his raw skills put him in a position to overcome this tough matchup.
Facing Allen is a difficult task for any defense, let alone one on a short week. I rank him over Patrick Mahomes this week by a single spot: this is going to be a fun one, though it wouldn’t shock me if this game is a little lower-scoring than the masses believe, as both coaching staffs aim to keep the opposing MVP off the field.
James Cook, RB
James Cook deserves his flowers.
He ran for 216 yards through three quarters against a Panthers run defense that had actually played well up to that point, the fourth-largest total through three quarters in a game this millennium (those who topped him: 2002 Ricky Williams, 2006 Willie Parker, and 2018 Henry).
It looked easy.
The 64-yard touchdown was a “if you get past the line of scrimmage, you’re running until you hit the goal posts” design from Carolina, and he took full advantage on his way to his fourth game this season with 100 rush yards and a score on the ground.
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Entering the week, I had an eyebrow raised at the lack of work in the passing game. That didn’t change in this spot (zero catches in back-to-back-to-back games), but a 31-point win isn’t going to require much to be done through the air.
I’m far more encouraged by his 5+ yards per carry in five of his past six games than I am concerned about the limitations as a receiver, but it should be noted, given just how versatile that top tier at the position is.
You got a great price on Cook this summer, and while this is a tough matchup, the Chiefs are on a short week, and I think it’s fair to say that this game means more to Buffalo than Kansas City.
Ray Davis, RB
Ray Davis benefited from the blowout nature of Buffalo’s 40-9 win over Carolina and matched a season high with nine carries.
They went for 16 yards.
James Cook produces at the levels he does because he is special, so even if he were to get hurt, it wouldn’t be as simple as transferring his work onto Davis. He’s still the handcuff to own, but he’d be more of a low-end RB2 if pressed into a significant role.
You can hold him if you have room, but if every position needs weekly utility because of your spot in the standings, this is the type of player you can move on from.
Joshua Palmer, WR
A combination injury (knee/ankle) kept Josh Palmer out of action last week, his first DNP of the season for the Bills, but hopefully, it’s far from it for your fantasy lineup.
Palmer’s name was a hot one this summer in Upstate New York, and with nine targets in the opener, there seemed to be a thread to pull.
Not so much.
He’s earned 11 opportunities in five games since. While the target hierarchy in this offense remains unsettled, it’s pretty clear that Palmer is an accent piece, deployed in very specific spots and nothing else.
There’s no reason to keep holding here. If desperate times call for desperate measures, and you want exposure to a high-powered offense, Palmer has had four games in which he’s played north of 40% of the snaps.
But those have been empty-calorie snaps, and I think there’s a good chance there are a dozen players on your waiver wire that I’d rather roll the dice on over Palmer, even when he’s at full strength.
Keon Coleman, WR
If the Bills were struggling, you could sell me on an expansion of Keon Coleman’s ripple, but with them getting the train back on the tracks with a 31-point win in Carolina, he’s basically a fancy Rashod Bateman these days.
I’m kidding.
Sort of.
You like the profile and the offensive environment, but no tangible numbers are pointing to short-term success.
Sounds like Bateman, no?
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Coleman has failed to earn more than four targets in four of his past six games, and with the Khalil Shakir/James Cook tandem showing plenty capable of producing next to Josh Allen, what motivation does this team have to feature their big play threat in a way that matters?
Coleman can remain rostered if you want an athletic player to plug in in case you’re absolutely backed into a corner. Still, I can’t imagine a world moving forward in which you’re excited about playing the second-year WR.
Khalil Shakir, WR
For the third time in four games, Khalil Shakir caught 5+ passes; he just happened to flash his elite YAC ability on one of them against the Panthers, elevating his stable PPR floor into a ceiling week.
He turned a shallow comeback route into a 54-yard catch-and-run, a skill that he has honed during his career.
You obviously can’t count on plays like that weekly, but the efficiency (85.7% catch rate on Sunday and 75.7% for his career) is here to stay. In this Josh Allen-led attack, Shakir holds weekly PPR value, even if the ceiling is rarely overwhelming.
Remember: it’s not the job of every player on your team to put you over the top. Players like Shakir are common on championship teams; they just don’t get the headlines of the highlight makers.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
We can blame game script all we want when it comes to Dalton Kincaid’s underwhelming Week 8 performance (one catch for 23 yards), but the game played to that script without the tight end doing much, and that’s largely the problem.
He’s scored three times this season, and that’s great, but the volatility in his yardage totals (37-66-28-108-23) puts a lot of weight on a skill that we haven’t seen him flash with consistency.
He’s attached to a strong offense that lacks an elite target-earner. That profile earns him top priority on the streaming radar (or maybe the low-end of the weekly options), but he’s not the type of tight end that makes me feel like I have the position figured out.
I’m fine if you want to hold him. He can be your safety school. That is, if something better comes along, you take it, but you’re not forcing the issue.