The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key Chicago Bears players heading into their matchup with the Minnesota Vikings to help you craft a winning lineup.
Caleb Williams, WR
Caleb Williams is far from perfect, but for fantasy managers, he’s good enough.
Amid snow flurries and dropped passes, Williams found his way to a fourth game this season with over 24 fantasy points, this time on the back of a season-high 49% of his production coming on the ground.
His ability to move (both within and out of the pocket) is what has me expecting another QB1 finish in this specific spot. The Vikings are an aggressive defense that likes to use exotic schemes, but Williams has seen them three times in his young career and handled the pressure last week just fine (five-of-nine with a touchdown).
READ MORE: Soppe’s Week 11 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Analysis for Every Player in Every Game
That showing against the Giants was good enough to be the sixth time in eight games in which he posted a triple-digit passer rating when blitzed. Combine that passing savvy with the raw athleticism, and we could see a near replica of the stat line he put up last week, one that was essentially what he gave us in the opener against these Vikings.
I doubt it’ll be a flawless effort, but over the course of the 37.9 opportunities he averages, I like our chances of getting to 20 fantasy points one way or another.
D’Andre Swift, RB
D’Andre Swift entered Week 10 listed as questionable with the groin injury that held him out of Week 9, but you wouldn’t have known it.
Week 10 vs. Giants
- 92.3% gain rate
- 65% of RB carries
- 3.4 yards per carry after contact
Kyle Monangai, following Cole Kmet into the end zone from eight yards out, was frustrating, but it was Swift out there to start the game, Swift with the edge in red-zone touches, and Swift with an 8-1 advantage in targets.
The involvement in the passing game is what most interests me, given how this offense is opening up and why I think he has nothing to worry about when it comes to work.
MORE: Free Fantasy Start/Sit Lineup Optimizer
Chicago has scored 24+ points in six of its past seven games, making this a favorable environment for all of its regulars. The schedule does the Bears no favors moving forward, and while I think that could cap his upside, 15+ touches for a versatile player at the center of a Ben Johnson offense is enough for me to lock in Swift every week in which he is healthy.
Kyle Monangai, RB
Kyle Monangai got the short TD plunge to bail you out last week, and now it’s on you to not make the same mistake again.
I’m not calling D’Andre Swift Bijan Robinson, but that is kind of how I see this backfield, with Monangai being the Tyler Allgeier complement.
He played 39.1% of the snaps in the win and was out-touched 18-7 by Swift. We know Ben Johnson gets creative with the passing game, which is why I think this situation stays as is and doesn’t trend toward a committee.
Swift was targeted on eight of his 23 routes over the weekend, while Monangai saw one look on 16 routes. The rookie was shown respect with some early work, but this offense very much shifted in Swift’s favor over time (14-4 snap edge in Swift’s favor during the fourth quarter).
MORE: Free Fantasy Waiver Wire Tool
I don’t think he’ll be fully scripted out, and that’s an important note. Probably not this week, with only two teams on bye, but in future weeks, seven to 11 touches on a good offense might be enough to warrant flex consideration.
You’re keeping the man with an elite first name, but more as a depth piece than someone you’re planning on plugging in.
DJ Moore, WR
DJ Moore had a 40-yard end zone target that would have been enough to save his day, but he couldn’t secure it and ended the afternoon with nothing to show for his four targets against a shaky Giants defense.
The veteran receiver hasn’t scored since Week 3 and has been held under 45 receiving yards in six of eight games since, for 68 yards in the opener against these Vikings.
The rookies are coming.
Colston Loveland has produced in consecutive weeks, and with Luther Burden posting his highest snap share of the season, it’s possible that Moore doesn’t impact your starting lineup again moving forward.
I’m not there yet, but we are closer than I thought we’d be. Loveland and Rome Odunze are the two locked-in top targets for this offense, and I’m not sold that Caleb Williams can sustain a third, especially with the running game being productive.
Moore sits outside my top 35 at the position this week: I’d rather take my chances on exciting young players with upside like Tez Johnson (at BUF) or even Tre Tucker (vs. DAL), understanding I’m assuming a similar floor with a greater ceiling.
Luther Burden III, WR
Hmm.
Hmmmmm.
Ben Johnson is starting to get comfortable in the Windy City, and with that, we get to pick apart the beautiful mind.
Luther Burden entered last week having never exceeded a 29.8% snap share, but in the comeback win, he was on the field for half of Chicago’s offensive snaps and had a 15-yard gain on the first drive.
Colston Loveland is carving out his role in this offense, and while a spike in usage from Burden would be less impactful for us because of the position he plays, he should at least be rostered after what we saw against the Giants, something I haven’t advocated for up to this point.
The best case is still an awfully thin profile. I think his best-case scenario in 2025 is still a wide range of outcomes — dart throw — but that’s more than we’ve had up to this point. Chicago has a brutal stretch of games the rest of the way, but that could actually work in his favor, as Johnson is aware that beating stout defenses with a million paper cuts is difficult to do.
I’m not close to considering Burden as a flex for this week, but could he get there with time? I think so. Could he pay off his DFS price tag this week with a big play or two against an aggressive defense?
I’ve seen worse gambles, and it opens up a lot on a slate that isn’t short on start power.
Rome Odunze, WR
I believe that you can tell a lot from first-quarter data.
The best teams will distance themselves from the pack as the game goes on, but those first 15 minutes give us a look at what the team drew up during practice and where they identified mismatches.
Over the past three weeks, Rome Odunze has more first-quarter targets than DJ Moore and both Bear TEs combined, something that I don’t think is an accident.
On Sunday, he was responsible for four of Caleb Williams’ first seven completions (66 yards), and Ben Johnson is constantly scheming up ways to leverage this emerging star.
There was a 38-yard end zone target in the blustery conditions last week that just missed, and a fade (set up by some precise Odunze route running drawing a DPI flag) attempt.
Neither paid off, but there is a clear focal point of this attack.
The Vikings have had their hands full with featured WRs of late (DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey, and Amon-Ra St. Brown have all cleared 18.5 PPR points against them since the Week 6 bye), and that’s the company I think this kid has a chance of keeping.
Odunze scored 15.7 points in the season opener in this matchup: sign me up for the “over” in the rematch.
Cole Kmet, TE
Cole Kmet was healthy and led the Bears’ TE room in snaps, but Colston Loveland drew the start and doubled him up in targets.
There’s no reason to be invested here. Ben Johnson has things moving in the right direction, and that direction is away from Kmet (one catch on no more than two targets in each of his past four games).
Wanting a piece of this offense is logical; doing it this way is not.
Colston Loveland, TE
The Bears had Colston Loveland on the field to start the last game, and while the 9.5 fantasy points aren’t swinging matchups like his breakout game in Cincinnati did, it’s enough to assume that he continues to see this role expanded.
I’m encouraged by the upside. So few players at the TE position offer a realistic floor, so the fact that Loveland has earned multiple deep targets in two straight games says to me that this team trusts him to impact the game in a major way.
MORE: Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer
The short targets should be there weekly, and if the downfield usage sustains, especially against an aggressive defense like this that could leave a linebacker in an awfully uncomfortable matchup, we are looking at a top 10 player the rest of the way.
I’ve got him ranked as such: he’s not Tyler Warren, but he is awfully impressive and we have a large enough sample of Ben Johnson elevating players like that with time.