The fantasy football landscape shifts each week, bringing fresh opportunities and unexpected challenges that separate the prepared from the pretenders. Savvy managers know that last week’s performance tells only part of the story, and diving deeper into the underlying metrics reveals the accurate picture.
This week presents some intriguing decisions. Here’s insight about key San Francisco 49ers players heading into their matchup with the New York Giants to help you craft a winning lineup.
Brock Purdy, QB
It’s now been over a month since the last time we saw Brock Purdy (toe), and the 49ers are being understandably cautious with him.
I think fantasy managers can be, too.
We really only have two quarterbacks of interest on a bye this week (Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield … Justin Fields counts if you signed up for that experience, but I’d assume you already have a secondary option rostered in that event), and that opens up the door to streamers that I’d prefer over Purdy should he return this week.
Joe Flacco gets the Chicago Bears, Sam Darnold the Washington Commanders, and Matthew Stafford the New Orleans Saints.
Players like Lamar Jackson are the ones I worry about missing on a big game in their return to action. Purdy could author a big game, but I think the risk/reward equation nets out as about even, and that has me generally waiting for him to play a game for San Francisco before he plays one for my fantasy team.
Mac Jones, QB
Mac Jones filled in again for Purdy (toe) last week in Houston, and the production was predictably limited.
He’s thrown for under 200 yards in each of his past two games and completed a season-low 59.4% of his passes in a tough matchup. Jones held his own, all things considered, health-wise on this roster, but this is Purdy’s offense when he’s able to return, and it sounds like we are nearing that time.
The 49ers face the Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts, and the Bears to close the season. For that reason, I’m holding onto him if I can until Purdy proves that he is a full-go.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
Darn, he is human.
McCaffrey struggled last week, totaling just 9.8 PPR points, his worst game by nearly 13 points this season, and a nod to the Houston defensive front (nine carries for 25 yards).
You’re crazy if you’re making any sort of sweeping ranking changes as a result of this dud.
San Francisco trailed for every one of their snaps with a banged-up defense, a backup QB, two missing receivers (not to mention one playing with more broken ribs than I knew we as humans had), and playing in a fourth city in as many weeks.
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So, yes, the house of cards eventually came tumbling down.
I’m not sure much of that changes this week, but betting against CMC is dangerous at best. He’s a script-proof back that has produced at (fantasy) MVP levels all season, despite having just one game with 60 rushing yards since the opener.
Nothing has changed in this profile, and nothing will. Unless he’s not healthy, McCaffrey is to be treated as a game-breaker at the highest of levels, even after a down week.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR
Reports surfaced late last week that the 49ers were considering opening Brandon Aiyuk’s (knee) window to return this week, and that’s at least a step in the right direction, something that we’ve lacked mainly during this process.
For his career, Aiyuk has produced 21.2% above expectations when fielding passes from Purdy, and that’s obviously encouraging if we get the combination of them both healthy at any point.
That’s a big if.
Adding Aiyuk now makes plenty of sense, though I’d keep expectations low for now. San Francisco has been cautious with him up to this point, which worries me that we may have to wait until December to see him unleashed in a meaningful way.
That said, after a Week 14 bye, the 49ers get the Titans, Colts, and Bears to round out the fantasy season, a stretch that projects well should he assume the WR1 role.
Jauan Jennings, WR
We know that Jauan Jennings is battling through a laundry list of injuries, but until we get bonus points for toughness, we are left with his production on the field, and it’s been lacking in a pretty significant way.
In October, he averaged 4.9 yards per target, and in an offense where his ceiling for looks in a given week is rarely higher than 7-8, that makes him an awfully tough sell when it comes to roster consideration.
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Add in the fact that the receiver room is only going to get healthier in the coming weeks, and we could be looking at a cut candidate before the holiday season.
For now, we hold. Ricky Pearsall and Aiyuk remain banged up, thus opening up reasonable amounts of volume. Maybe the return of Purdy can help, but I’ll believe that when I see it. Right now, he sits outside of my top 40 at the position in Week 9 for me, checking in behind all-or-nothing types like Alec Pierce and Kayshon Boutte, players with a similar risk profile but more upside at the moment given their form.
Kendrick Bourne, WR
With reinforcements seemingly on the way for the 49ers, Kendrick Bourne is trending off of fantasy rosters with a total of six targets and 58 yards over the past two weeks.
He’s not a bad player, and this is a great system, but it’s hard to pencil him in for much in the way of opportunities when Pearsall or Aiyuk return, let alone when both are there.
Due to the lengthy injuries to those ahead of him on the depth chart, I’d keep Bourne rostered. If he’s penciled into the WR2 role in a Kyle Shanahan system, you could do far worse when it comes to streamers.
Be ready to pivot with time, but for right now, he’s a low-end flex that you should only consider deploying if absolutely pressed (under 45 receiving yards in five of his seven games).
Ricky Pearsall, WR
The 49ers coaching staff continues to tell us that Pearsall is progressing and hasn’t suffered a setback, but we’ve yet to get much clarity on a return timeline, and that’s a worry.
This is a knee injury that he described as “unstable”. That would be a concerning diagnosis for anyone, never mind a player who thrives on making plays down the field (16.4 yards per catch in his four games this season, 14.3 for his career).
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I’m skeptical at best that Pearsall is going to return to the weekly lineup conversation this season, but we have no choice but to wait. This roster as a whole has struggled to stay on the field, and that could carve out an opportunity for Pearsall to earn 5-7 targets weekly if healthy.
But there are many moving pieces. I’m considering Pearsall a bonus if he helps me in the stretch run, assuming I won’t have access to his upside.
George Kittle, TE
George Kittle was held without a catch on 24 routes in his Week 7 return to action, but National Tight End Day brought out the version of the former All-Pro that we are more accustomed to:
- 33 routes
- 4 catches
- 14.3 PPR points
He hauled in Jones’ first completed pass of last week’s loss in Houston and was clearly scripted into the plan. I think you can expect more of the same moving forward, no matter who is under center and which pass catchers are active.
Kittle is a Tier 2 player at the position and has more room to move up than down due to the underwhelming nature of the others in this range.
Jake Tonges, TE
A week after I tell you that you can move on from Jake Tonges without concern, he scores.
That’s how this game works.
I stand by what I said. Kittle is clearly healthy, as evidenced by his 33-4 route edge over San Francisco’s TE2, and while the touchdown was good to see, this isn’t the type of role that deserves to even be on your streaming radar.