Early Start ‘em Sit ‘em Week 10: Cordarrelle Patterson, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and More

Who are some intriguing Week 10 start/sit decisions to consider this week, including the likes of Cordarrelle Patterson, Aaron Jones, and more?

As we start to consider the Week 10 start/sit options for fantasy football managers, we turn to the numbers to help us make our decisions. With the help of fantasy points allowed to the position from the 2022 NFL season, let’s see why the likes of Cordarrelle Patterson, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, and more might be players to consider as start ’em or sit ’em options for Week 10.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Start ’ems

In general, we aim to select players as potential starts who were started in fewer in less than 40% of ESPN leagues in the previous game weeks. Equally, when it comes to potential players to sit this week, we aim to restrict it to players that were in more than 50% of lineups in the previous week.

The biggest exception for this will either be players coming off a bye week or those who could see a big change in starting percentage in the upcoming week.

Justin Fields, QB | CHI vs. DET

Justin Fields has been playing a completely different game in recent weeks. He has scored 17 fantasy points or more in all five games since Week 5, including more than 20 fantasy points in each of the last three weeks. The increased output has come in a combination of more consistency in the passing game and an explosive running game.

Fields has averaged 170.2 passing yards per game in that stretch, with eight passing touchdowns to just two interceptions. That has equated to 15.61 fantasy points per game on average just from the passing game alone.

While not exactly setting the world alight with those passing numbers, it has been a solid floor output. Fields has added 91 rushing yards per game on average, with three rushing touchdowns.

MORE: Week 10 Waiver Wire Pickups

A QB of Fields’ style is rare enough in the NFL that it’s hard to judge his matchup by statistical analysis alone. However, what we’ve seen with the Detroit Lions’ defense this season is that they have the propensity to be involved in high-scoring matchups. Sunday’s game against Green Bay was the first time they allowed fewer than 24 points this year.

The Lions rank 32nd in both points and yards allowed this season. Their defense allows an average of 7.5 net yards per pass attempt (which ranks last in the league). Meanwhile, their 1,190 rushing yards allowed is the second-highest number in the league.

The Lions also allow a league-worst 2.59 points per drive to opponents. If you weren’t sure about Fields previously, then this could be the week to jump in with both feet. Similarly, his recent performances make him an intriguing Underdog Fantasy option, be it in Best Ball leagues or Week 10 daily fantasy contests.

Cordarrelle Patterson, RB | ATL @ CAR

It wasn’t a mixed return for Cordarrelle Patterson in Week 9. He managed just 44 yards on his 13 rushing attempts but found the end zone twice. Patterson’s 39% snap share in his first week back and leading the backfield in rushing attempts was promising. He also led the team in terms of goal-line rushes, taking all three of them.

That is really promising for Patterson’s ceiling, especially with his upcoming matchup against the Carolina Panthers. We just saw the Panthers give up five touchdowns and more than 50 fantasy points to Joe Mixon. It was the third time in five weeks that opposing backs have scored more than 25 fantasy points against Carolina.

There is enough upside in this matchup that the Falcons can use all three of their backs and still have fantasy value for at least two of them. As the likely backfield leader and goal-line back, Patterson is a solid starting option this week.

Zay Jones, WR | JAX @ KC

It feels like we are right on the verge of a Zay Jones breakout. The Jacksonville Jaguars WR has been playing more than 90% of the snaps for the last four weeks. This week, he gets a matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have allowed more than 30 fantasy points to opposing WRs in five of their eight games this season.

While we are coming off a Sunday Night Football game in which the Chiefs did not allow a single fantasy point to the WR position, it might seem odd to recommend a player going against them. However, for as much trouble as Trevor Lawrence has had in the past few weeks, he’s still a significant upgrade over what we’ve seen from Malik Willis this season.

This game between the Chiefs and the Jaguars has the potential to be exciting. Therefore, Jones could be in line for a double-digit fantasy-point day in half-PPR and PPR scoring. That will make him a Flex consideration in 12-team leagues if he can return that type of output.

Cade Otton, TB | TB vs. SEA (Munich)

Cade Otton came out of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ victory over the Los Angeles Rams as a hero of the final drive. Now, he heads to Munich for a matchup with a Seattle Seahawks team that has really struggled against tight ends this year. Seattle has allowed double-digits to the position in six of their nine games.

MORE: Buy Low, Sell High Week 10

Even their best performances have seen the Seahawks allow at least 5.8 fantasy points to the TE position. Yet, that result came in Week 1, and since then, the lowest output has been 7.3 fantasy points. Mixed in with that are two games across Weeks 4 and 5 where they allowed a total of 81.98 fantasy points to tight ends. There is both a nice floor and ceiling potential for Otton this week.

Week 10 Fantasy Football Sit ’ems

Dak Prescott, QB | DAL @ GB

For all the Packers’ struggles this year, as they enter Week 10 at 3-6, their defense has been solid against opposing passing games. Green Bay has not allowed a single double-digit fantasy-point output to opposing QBs this year. The 12.26 fantasy points allowed to the position is the fifth-lowest output allowed to QBs this year.

Opposing QBs have gone over 15 fantasy points just once since Week 1. The reason for that is that the Packers’ defense has been extremely vulnerable to opposing run games. They allow an average of 4.8 yards per rush attempt (ninth-worst in the league) for 1,247 rushing yards (seventh-most in the league). Last Sunday’s game against the Lions was the fourth time the Packers’ have held an opposing passing game under 200 yards this season.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott has had a mixed couple of weeks since returning. He managed just 12.3 fantasy points against Detroit in Week 7 but managed 25.4 fantasy points in Week 8, thanks in part to his rushing touchdown against the Bears.

Benching Prescott might seem hard to figure out, but the strength of the Packers’ defense against opposing QBs makes it a serious consideration this week.

Aaron Jones, RB | GB vs. DAL

It appears that Aaron Jones has dodged a serious injury after he was seen leaving in a walking boot after Sunday’s game. The hope is that Jones will be able to play this week, but even if he does, fantasy managers should consider being cautious. With the injury concern, there’s a real chance AJ Dillon takes on a bigger role in the offense this week.

Additionally, the Cowboys have been a hard defense to figure out when it comes to opposing RBs. Their 16.28 fantasy points allowed to the RB position, on average, is the fifth-lowest number in the league. Just twice have opposing backs scored more than 20 fantasy points when facing the Cowboys.

MORE: Fantasy Football Injury Report Week 9

Jones has also struggled to have consistency. He had a monster game against the Buffalo Bills in Week 8, with 143 rushing yards on 20 attempts. But in the three games around that, he managed just 67 rushing yards on 26 rushing attempts (2.58 rushing yards per attempt). He has often supplemented that with receiving work, but that could be heavily reduced this week with the injury.

While he had 10 targets in Week 7, Jones has only had more than four targets in a game on two other occasions this year. While it would be tough to sit Jones if he’s active, the injury concerns, combined with the stats, would suggest this might be a week where he struggles to produce.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR | ARI vs. LAR

It’s an intriguing situation with DeAndre Hopkins this week against the Rams. Last week, a reasonably tough Seahawks defense against WRs in terms of fantasy points held Hopkins to four receptions for 36 yards. Had he not found the end zone, Hopkins’ output would have been incredibly disappointing for fantasy managers.

In the last two years, Hopkins has faced the Rams four times. In that period, he has averaged 52 receiving yards, 5.25 receptions, and 0.25 touchdowns per game. That equates to 6.7 fantasy points in non-PPR, 9.33 fantasy points in half-PPR, and 11.95 fantasy points in full-PPR.

In the last four weeks, the Rams have allowed an average of 14 fantasy points per game to opposing WRs in half-PPR. With Rondale Moore likely to be involved a reasonable amount, that places a huge limit on Hopkins’ ceiling. While it might be tough to bench the Cardinals’ star WR, he is certainly someone we should not be surprised has a poor fantasy output this week.

Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast!

Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review!

Related Articles