Soppe’s Fantasy Football Sleepers: Will Levis, Dalton Schultz Highlight AFC South’s Possible Late-Round Picks

The definition of “fantasy football sleepers” has evolved with time. Years ago, they were players who the general public had never heard of, let alone considered as a legitimate fantasy asset.

The AFC South is loaded with young talent this season which makes for several potential sleeper picks in your fantasy football drafts. Here is who you should keep an eye on.

Fantasy Football Sleepers | AFC South

Houston Texans: Dalton Schultz, TE

Since 2021, Dalton Schultz has averaged more PPR fantasy points per target than T.J. Hockenson and Njoku — tight ends with a much higher profile in fantasy football. Schultz had six games during the regular season with a 20+ yard catch and had such a play in both playoff contests, proving that being tied to a C.J. Stroud-led offense can elevate his stock.

The concern, of course, is the target count, and I’m not here to tell you that it’s going to be pretty. The opportunity count is going to be low, and you’ll be relying on efficiency/touchdowns. That, however, is likely going to be the case on any tight end in a punt-TE build.

Schultz comes with contingent value that far exceeds the other tight ends in his range.

Talent, opportunity, and environment. In the late rounds, if you can get a player who checks two of those boxes, you take it. Schultz does, and he’s one injury away from being very interesting in an offense that is the betting favorite to lead the league in passing scores.

Indianapolis Colts: Josh Downs, WR

I believe in the Anthony Richardson wave lifting all boats, and there’s a decent chance that this offense’s best days in 2024 come at the perfect time for fantasy managers.

Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell are with Josh Downs in the competition for targets behind Michael Pittman Jr. Instead of trying to split hairs in terms of raw talent, I’m taking a role approach.

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Pierce and Mitchell are going to stretch the field, while Downs figures to assume more of a short-yardage role out of the slot. The splash plays will go elsewhere, but if you told me that a non-Pittman receiver on this team had 10 usable weeks in PPR formats, Downs would be my pick.

This is a roster construction situation. There’s a time and a place to speculate on the ceiling potential of Pierce/Mitchell, but if you’re looking for a weekly floor to offset some volatility among your starters, Downs is a fine buy assuming health.

Tennessee Titans: Will Levis, QB

We in the fantasy community spend a lot of time and energy trying to predict what it is that teams want to do. So it’s awfully nice when a team makes numerous moves pointing in the same direction to eliminate the guesswork we need to do.

Will Levis = Stud pic.twitter.com/1n4qi7Ln83

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) November 3, 2023

This offseason, the Titans moved on from a one-dimensional running back with over 2,000 carries to a versatile one with under 1,000. They inked a former WR1 to a four-year deal and made him the 10th-highest-paid player at the position in terms of average annual dollars. Tennessee also reunited a veteran slot receiver with his former offensive coordinator to give this pass game balance.

Whether you think Will Levis is destined to be a good real-life quarterback or not, Tennessee is going about the evaluation process in a smart way — load up the skill positions around him and give him a chance to succeed.

The Titans’ commitment to increased aggression in an offense led by a second-round quarterback checks a few boxes that have proven advantageous.

Since 2000, eight times has a quarterback not drafted in the first round thrown 250+ passes in each of his first two seasons. As a collective, they saw their fantasy production increase by 11.9% in their second season (average: 15.8 ppg).

Teams that have committed to this profile have been rewarded with better play, and the odds of that happening only increase if you believe that these offseason acquisitions are complemented by a shift in play-calling.

Over the past two seasons, 10 times has a team seen its pass rate over expectation ranking increase by 8+ spots, a level of growth that is certainly in play here (Tennessee ranked 28th last season). In those 10 instances, they got 11.1% more fantasy points per game from the QB position than they did the year prior (average: 17.9 ppg).

That 17.9 number is on the optimistic side of outcomes and would have ranked as QB11 last season (between Justin Herbert and Justin Fields), less than one point away from QB5 honors. If you split the difference between those two averages listed above, we’re talking about QB15, a valuable finish for a quarterback who is free at the end of your draft.

Draft Levis as a backup if you aren’t comfortable with him as your starter. He has an early bye (Week 5) that won’t impact what you’re doing and could develop into a trade asset as the season progresses.

The Titans don’t have a single negative matchup after hosting the New England Patriots in Week 9, a finishing kick that could make him a highly valuable commodity to the right fantasy team.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr., WR

The rookie is going as high as anyone on this list (late 10th round), but I wanted to mention Brian Thomas Jr. because he seems to be overlooked due to the top-end talent in the 2024 WR class.

From a talent standpoint, I understand him not being in the same conversation as Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze, but fantasy is a game played in the box scores. Thomas has a chance to be the WR1 for an offense with its long-term answer at quarterback. Nabers doesn’t check either of those boxes, and Odunze is fighting to be labeled the third option in a passing game centered around a rookie QB.

I think it’s likely that Thomas outproduces Odunze despite being picked two rounds later, and I wouldn’t call you crazy if you said he kept pace with Nabers. The Jaguars ranked fifth in pass rate over expectation last season and saw Calvin Ridley take his talents to Tennessee this offseason. The table is set for a strong return on investment on the former LSU star.