It’s that time of year. If you’re reading this, you have your fantasy football roster pulled up and, even if you don’t want to admit it, you’re wondering, “How am I going to mess up this beautiful roster that I put together?”
We’ve all been there. Don’t worry, I’m a professional.
Well, at the very least, I try hard. Really hard. And with that, I present to you my Week 1 fantasy rankings that have far too much data supporting them to possibly be wrong.
Top 35 Fantasy Quarterback Rankings
1) Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles (vs. GB)
2) Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills (vs. ARI)
3) Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens (at KC)
4) C.J. Stroud | Houston Texans (at IND)
5) Anthony Richardson | Indianapolis Colts (vs. HOU)
6) Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs (vs. BAL)
7) Caleb Williams | Chicago Bears (vs. TEN)
8) Jayden Daniels | Washington Commanders (at TB)
9) Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals (at BUF)
10) Tua Tagovailoa | Miami Dolphins (vs. JAX)
11) Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals (vs. NE)
12) Jordan Love | Green Bay Packers (at PHI)
13) Trevor Lawrence | Jacksonville Jaguars (at MIA)
14) Jared Goff | Detroit Lions (vs. LAR)
15) Brock Purdy | San Francisco 49ers (vs. NYJ)
16) Kirk Cousins | Atlanta Falcons (vs. PIT)
17) Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys (at CLE)
18) Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. WAS)
19) Derek Carr | New Orleans Saints (vs. CAR)
20) Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams (at DET)
21) Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers (vs. LV)
22) Sam Darnold | Minnesota Vikings (at NYG)
23) Geno Smith | Seattle Seahawks (vs. DEN)
24) Bo Nix | Denver Broncos (at SEA)
25) Deshaun Watson | Cleveland Browns (vs. DAL)
26) Daniel Jones | New York Giants (vs. MIN)
27) Aaron Rodgers | New York Jets (at SF)
28) Russell Wilson | Pittsburgh Steelers (at ATL)
29) Gardner Minshew II | Las Vegas Raiders (at LAC)
30) Will Levis | Tennessee Titans (at CHI)
31) Drake Maye | New England Patriots (at CIN)
32) Bryce Young | Carolina Panthers (at NO)
33) Jacoby Brissett | New England Patriots (at CIN)
34) Justin Fields | Pittsburgh Steelers (at ATL)
35) Aidan O’Connell | Las Vegas Raiders (at LAC)
The Top Quarterbacks To Start in Week 1
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
If you drafted Daniels, you did so with his ceiling games in mind, and this could be one of them. Last season, the Buccaneers blitzed at the third-highest rate and allowed the eighth-most yards per pass attempt – is that not the perfect formula for Daniels’ profile?
The concern with the pride of LSU is his ability to process at the NFL level, but he might not need to in Week 1. If his first read is open (and it will be on occasion given Tampa Bay’s inconsistencies at the second level), he takes it. If it’s not because the Bucs guess right when they are blitzing, then the 6’4” athletic marvel gets out of the pocket and you watch the fantasy points pile up with him in space.
From a game script perspective, things could work out. I have my questions about Tampa Bay’s ability to run the ball (fourth in percentage of yards that came through the air last season), and if they operate similarly in this matchup, that is perfect for Daniels. Either Baker Mayfield’s passes are hitting the turf and stopping the clock or they are picking up chunks (Washington allowed the third most yards per pass last season) and forcing Daniels to play catchup.
Like you, I have my concerns about the rookie’s support at his disposal, something that didn’t improve with trading Jahan Dotson ahead of the third week of the preseason. That is likely to result in some valleys this season, but that’s more of a concern in October (Browns and Ravens to open the month) than September (Buccaneers, Giants, Bengals, and Cardinals).
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Some high-pedigree options require time to find their groove at the professional level and some are named Caleb Williams.
This Caleb Williams edit. 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/X3Q487T610
— Max Markham (@MaxMarkhamNFL) September 4, 2024
The arm is what is praised and I have zero concerns about it. This is an offense that is going to work to highlight his strengths and with the Titans intercepting a league-low 1.1% of passes last season (league average: 2.3%), I’m comfortable with projecting a nice combination of aggression and volume in Williams’ debut.
Why I have him as my QB8 this week is a bet on versatility. The Titans ranked 28th in pressure rate last season and with a trio of strong receivers, I have no concerns that Williams can produce top-12 numbers through the air. That’s encouraging, but what has me playing him over QBs that have some MVP steam behind them in Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love is his ability to pick up yards on the ground.
Over the past 20 seasons, 11 rookie quarterbacks with first-round draft capital spent on them ran for over 25 yards in their first start – they averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game (for context, that would have been QB5 if extended for all of 2023).
That’s an impressive number at face value, but it’s even better when you consider that some of the quarterbacks in that sample (Christian Ponder, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones, and Teddy Bridgewater) weren’t exactly swimming in the same pool as Williams in terms of projected career arc.
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