Fantasy football is a year-round game. That used to only be true for dynasty managers — you signed up for a full 12 months and that’s what you got. Nowadays, however, with rules changing and players on the move, even redraft managers need to at least be aware of what is going on if they want to put themselves in the best possible position to compete in February.
If you’ve fallen behind, that’s OK, I have you covered. Here’s a quick piece to get you caught up as we enter the 2025 NFL Draft and all of the moving pieces that will come with this incoming class of rookies, not to mention any further action that happens in terms of trades and late signings.
Fantasy Football: What Did I Miss?
Hi there. Nice to have you back in the fold. A lot has changed since we last talked — let’s get down to business.
Impactful Coaching Changes
The loaded Detroit Lions lost both of their coordinators to head coaching vacancies this offseason, and there is no tangible impact to worry about for them. The ceiling might be a touch lower out of the gates, but Jared Goff remains on the fringe of QB1 status, Jahmyr Gibbs is in the 1.01 conversation, David Montgomery is a RB2 as a complementary option, Amon-Ra St. Brown is steady as a Tier 1 receiver, and Jameson Williams has enough upside to consider him a solid WR2. Sam LaPorta is no longer a top-tier tight end option, but there’s a nice buy spot here for a player who scored 5.5% more PPR fantasy points per target last year than in 2023 and saw 10.8% of his targets come in the end zone (2023: 6.7%).
As for their new homes, Ben Johnson (former OC) takes over the reins in Chicago and the development of Caleb Williams. In Year 2 for the prodigy, his value checks in alongside that of Goff as a low-end QB1 that can be drafted as a starter (but the type you might draft as an upside option with your last pick as a secondary signal-caller). Williams was QB7 from Weeks 12-16 last season, ranking just behind Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. DJ Moore is a viable fantasy starter who is more intriguing in PPR formats, while Rome Odunze’s path to significant second-year growth becomes more clear with this hire — consider him a Flex-worthy WR at this point with the potential to work his way into the WR3 conversation with a strong summer.
Aaron Glenn (former DC) is now calling the shots for the New York Jets, a team that isn’t anything like the version we last saw in January. The coaching change itself doesn’t impact the fantasy pieces here — Breece Hall is a low-end RB1 while Garrett Wilson, as the clear top target in town, reassumes his status as a low-end WR2 with quality of targets being the major concern (more on that in a minute).
Liam Coen parlayed his success with Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense into a head coaching gig with the Jacksonville Jaguars. With Trevor Lawrence emerging as his new project, could he follow the Mayfield breakout trajectory? Last year, Brian Thomas Jr. posted the fourth-best rookie season since 2000 in terms of production over expectation, minimum 100 targets (+22.3%). Of the others in the top 10 of that list, four ran it back with the same QB who was still on the front half of his career
- Joe Burrow was QB7 in Ja’Marr Chase’s Years 2-4 (20.3 PPG)
- Dak Prescott was QB7 in CeeDee Lamb’s Years 2-4 (19.2 PPG)
- Kirk Cousins was QB10 in Justin Jefferson’s Years 2-3 (17.9 PPG)
- Jared Goff was QB10 in Amon-Ra St. Brown’s Years 2-4 (17.6 PPG)
We saw Coen stay committed to giving Rachaad White touches for far too long last season, fueling my lack of confidence in either Travis Etienne Jr. or Tank Bigsby separating this season. Both are certainly draft worthy given their potential to eventually assume a lead role in an offense that should be better than it was a year ago, but the downside is that they are ranked in more of the “nice roster depth” tier as opposed to penciled-in starters.
Old man Pete Carroll takes his chewing gum to the Las Vegas Raiders — just making you aware that the move occurred. This team overhauled their skill position players (keep reading) with elderly talent, so, spoiler alert, you’re not going to have to worry much about the Black and Silver. Brock Bowers is my top-ranked TE after his historic rookie campaign, and Jakobi Meyers is always overlooked in casual leagues. He’s not going to win you your league, but he scored 13+ points in nine of 15 games a season ago, and that level of stability is something that championship rosters often have in some fashion.
The offensive mind of Kellen Moore took his talents to New Orleans, but the Saints’ QB situation is up in the air with Derek Carr potentially out for the year due to a shoulder injury. Even if Carr was healthy, he wouldn’t have been fantasy-relevant beyond two-QB/Superflex formats. It’s possible New Orleans will draft a starting QB. Until we know who’s under center, it’s a bit tough to evaluate Chris Olave (a potential post-hype sleeper type that has top-15 potential at the position without requiring such an investment) or Rashid Shaheed (a big-play threat who offers great value at where he comes off of draft boards since he’s outside of the top-40 receivers).
I’m a big believer that good coaches make good use of the assets at their disposal as opposed to forcing them into their system, but those specific changes could result in some value changes. When it comes to the faces in new places…
Player Movement
Let’s start where every play starts. At the quarterback position, Sam Darnold is now a Seattle Seahawk, though it is with a revamped receiver room. Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s status as his WR1 is unquestioned (100-1,130-6 in 2024), and he should be drafted as a starter in all formats. He was a top-20 receiver in six of seven games down the stretch last season, and a repeat season is certainly possible, but ranking him as a WR1 in fantasy formats is too optimistic for my liking given the depth of the position. He ranks as a fine WR2 in the same tier as other top targets in offenses where I question the overall passing upside (DJ Moore, Garrett Wilson, etc.).
Soon-to-be 32-year-old Cooper Kupp also joined the Seahawks and will work behind JSN, but asking him to be a top-25 receiver the way Jordan Addison was under Darnold last season is unlikely. I’m not dismissing him the way some are after a disaster of a 2024 season, but he’s in the same ballpark as WRs like George Pickens and Jauan Jennings — others being asked to assume a different role than they had in years past (more Flex appeal than in the weekly starter discussion).
Carroll has Geno Smith leading the Raiders this year, so that’s a thing. As part of a more talented roster in Seattle a year ago, Smith finished better than QB20 just once during the second half of the fantasy season. His impact in fantasy this year will be his ability to get the rock to Bowers and nothing more.
Justin Fields is the man replacing Aaron Rodgers in Gotham and if that sticks throughout the offseason, there’s some matchup streaming potential here. We know the skill set is fantasy-friendly and the surrounding talent is above average. I mentioned Goff, Williams, and even maybe Lawrence as quarterbacks to draft and backup — Fields is on that list. We will have more clarity on his role when your draft comes around, but it’s important not to dismiss him based solely on recent results; rushing upside is a cheat code in our game, and this division is going to force the Jets to score.
Fields’ former teammate, Russell Wilson, is currently penciled in ahead of Jameis Winston as the starter for the other New York team. There’s still a chance that a rookie joins the Giants’ QB room, and that would put Wilson in a position to be a stopgap more than anything. He could open the season as the starter, but that role could be gone by the time bye weeks come into consideration, thus making him someone you need to draft. Like Smith in Vegas, his one job will be to feed his top target, Malik Nabers, who is a top-10 receiver as long as I’m not the one under center on opening day.
Former Giants QB Daniel Jones was signed to the Indianapolis Colts to push Anthony Richardson. I think it’s a smokescreen, and I’m ready to Charlie Brown my way to more Richardson shares this summer. It won’t cost nearly what it did 12 months ago, and I’m not sure the ceiling case is that much different.
We discussed former Steeler QBs a second ago, and the current version of their team has a new WR1. DK Metcalf (his real first name is “DeKaylin”, so if you’ve learned nothing up to this point, I have you covered) was traded to this franchise in early March and doesn’t currently have an NFL-level QB by his side. This is the most speculated landing spot for Aaron Rodgers, and if that were to happen, he deserves to be ranked as a low-end WR2 right around Rodgers’ former weapon, Garrett Wilson. If that’s not the case, he’s not a top-30 receiver for me due to the skill duplication issues with George Pickens and the lack of quality attempts. Metcalf over Pickens for me, but if Rodgers bails, it’s going to take a lot to get me overly excited about either.
At one point, we thought that Metcalf could be the updated version of Davante Adams. The current version of Adams is now Puka Nacua’s running mate in Los Angeles and with Matthew Stafford returning, he’s in the top-15 discussion. Make no mistake about it, Nacua is the alpha target earner, but Adams figures to be worth your while, even with his 33rd birthday coming this year. In 2024, he had five top-10 finishes at the position; he’s not the player he once was, though he remains capable of capitalizing on the WR-elevating talents of Stafford and is among the best goal-line threats in the game.
Speaking of past-their-primes WRs, Deebo Samuel Sr. resides in the nation’s capital these days, joining a Jayden Daniels-led offense that lit the world on fire last season. He’s pretty clearly working behind Terry McLaurin, and the return of Zach Ertz limits the true target count, but this is a strong skill set fit that lands him in the same tier as the Kupps of the world.
Continuing with the top receivers of yesteryear, Stefon Diggs returns to the AFC East, this time as a cog of the Drake Maye project in New England. His health is a question mark and when he was on the field last season, his yards per route was 12% below his career norm. The potential of Maye puts Diggs on fantasy rosters, but he’s not a fantasy starter until he proves it at this point — I’d rather the aforementioned veterans.
Replacing Diggs as the WR2 in Houston is Christian Kirk, a versatile receiver on the right side of 30, but someone who has missed 14 games over the past two years. Personally, I think Nico Collins has a real shot to win the receiving triple crown this season and that’s going to limit the food left on the plate for a player like Kirk. But if you believe in C.J. Stroud’s rookie year more than his sophomore campaign, there’s a case to be made, with Tank Dell potentially out for the season, for Kirk to sneak into the top-40.
The impact mover at the tight end position this spring was Evan Engram, who is now a part of the Bo Nix (another low-end QB1) sphere in Denver. Love this move! Over the past two seasons, Engram led the TE position in receptions per game (eighth-most league-wise among players to play 20-plus games) while owning a 5.2-yard aDOT.
We’ve seen Sean Payton be creative in the past and as this offense develops, their potency is set to spike sooner than later. Bowers and the now highly paid Trey McBride make up my top tier at the position with George Kittle and LaPorta being on the level below that. After those four, Engram is in the conversation with half a dozen other options at the position for TE5 honors in my way-too-early rankings.
Engram will help level up this offense, and Najee Harris should have a similar impact in Los Angeles with the Chargers, but the running back isn’t likely to benefit for our purposes quite the same. Don’t get me wrong, I have him ranked as a RB2 — a career-high 11.4% of his carries last season gained 10+ yards — but I more have my eye on his impact when it comes to Justin Herbert, a young QB who was already the league’s top play-action passer in 2024 without consistent support behind him. Give me Herbert over the aforementioned Nix, both checking in just ahead of that Goff/Williams tier as low-end QB1s.
Gone from the ingenuity of Payton’s offense in Denver is Javonte Williams, a disappointing RB in recent years who now has a star on his helmet. Whether he will be the bellcow in the Dallas Cowboys’ offense come Week 1 is TBD, but right now, that role is his to lose (Rico Dowdle is now stuck in a committee on the Carolina Panthers). Volume still holds value these days, but not as much as it once did, and this version of Williams projects to be proof of that thought. If we are penciling him in for 15+ touches in an above average offense, he’s going to slide into my top-30 and maybe the top-25 at the position depending how various backfields sort out, but after shredding his knee, he’s produced 18.1% below fantasy expectations (0.8% over expectations as a rookie).
DeAndre Hopkins is a big name and has joined a Super Bowl contender in Baltimore, but he’s nothing more than a roster filler at this point in his career as he comes off a season in which he posted a 22.5% on-field target share (after finishing north of 25% in six of seven seasons prior). Mike Williams is a Charger again, and Joshua Palmer is a Bill — two athletes with DFS appeal in the right spot that don’t move the needle in redraft formats at this point.
Raheem Mostert is currently the man in the Raiders’ backfield, but it’s not clear if he will retain that role over the next four months. Or over the next four weeks, for that matter, as Las Vegas has been linked to Ashton Jeanty and other RBs in the draft.
A handful of fantasy-viable assets elected to stay put this offseason, and their values are largely where you left them (Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, and Aaron Jones). Hollywood Brown still calls Kansas City home and his value is one to track as the Rashee Rice situation (injury and suspension) plays out. Xavier Worthy’s growth late last season was real, but if Rice is sidelined and with Travis Kelce aging, Brown would again have my attention in a similar way as a Jayden Reed type.
Jaylen Warren is still a Steeler, though he is now the lead dog with Harris out of town, positioning himself to be a fantasy starter. We need clarity on who is leading this offense, but if it’s a veteran of some sort, Warren could be in the Rhamondre Stevenson range of low-end RB2 options (assuming Pittsburgh doesn’t spend significant draft capital on a RB).
NFL Rule Changes
The NFL liked the results of their dynamic kickoff trial in 2024 and will be doubling down on it this season. Touchbacks are becoming more of a penalty than encouraged – a traditional touchback will come out to the 35-yard line this season, another five-yard extension.
The idea here is to increase the number of returns. We saw a spike in kick return efficiency last season, and with this rule now in place, the sheer volume of attempts is assured to rise.
This isn’t going to directly impact singular players as much as it is the overall landscape of our game. More returns, in theory, means shorter fields more often and thus more scoring opportunities.
You’re going to have to adjust your expectations for matchup scoring in a slight way, but you’re also going to have to place a little more value on the touchdown makers over the yardage gainers.
Volume plays like Khalil Shakir or Najee Harris will remain valuable, but as the average starting position increases, we are chopping down the number of plays it’ll take to score, and thus, further elevating the players who end drives.
We need more data before making sweeping claims, but I’m certainly more likely to leave the light on for Cooper Kupp or jump the draft order for a player like Rashid Shaheed these days than I was five years ago. On the flip side, players like Michael Pittman Jr. are going to face even more of an uphill battle to produce on a regular basis compared to past years.