Fantasy Football Players to Avoid 2024: Risky Options Include Lamar Jackson, De’Von Achane, and Deebo Samuel

A sleeper column is easy — you take deep shots and don’t have much to lose. If you hit, you’ve positioned yourself well, but your season is not lost with a misread.

Fantasy football “do not draft” lists, on the other hand, can sink your year before it ever has a chance to really get going.

I’m here to save you from that despair.

Anyone can give you names in the back half of the draft to avoid, but does that really hold as much value as researching what landmines to avoid in the first half?

Fantasy Football Do Not Draft: Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Putting the reigning NFL MVP on this list doesn’t happen without serious concerns.

Depending on where you draft, Lamar Jackson’s stock checks in close to the “big three” at quarterback and, potentially, as a part of that top tier. That’s too rich for my liking.

Even in a season where he ran hot as a passer, Jackson had nearly as many finishes (five) outside of the top 15 (five) as he did weeks inside the top eight (six). He is still playing with a receiver corps that is well below average, an elite defense, and what could be the most effective short-yardage ground attack in the game.

The rushing yardage is nice to solidify a floor, but will it be enough to save his value should the passing efficiency (8.0 yards per attempt in 2023, nearly 16% ahead of his rate the season prior) trend closer to what we’ve come to expect from him? It’s a valid concern given the lack of high-end talent at his disposal that some of the other top-shelf QBs get the benefit of, and it’s a driving force behind my lack of exposure this season.

Over the past three seasons, Jackson has scored once every 39.3 carries, a rate that is more likely to drop than improve with the addition of Derrick Henry this offseason.

Unfortunately, from a fantasy perspective, the defense and the overall talent of this team are a detriment. Whether you like it or not, they have the ability to hurt you.

In 2023, five of the top eight QBs trailed for over 40% of their offensive snaps. It doesn’t always work out that way, but the train of thought follows — quarterbacks who are forced to be aggressive more often are the ones producing the video-game numbers.

MORE: Simulate the NFL Season With PFN’s Playoff Predictor

Last season, Jackson saw just 23.9% of his fantasy points come with his Ravens trailing, a rate that could repeat in 2024 given that they are the third-highest favorite to win the Super Bowl and projected to clear 10 wins.

He has the elite athleticism that my next bust doesn’t, but similar volume worries keep me up at night if we are to assume that the scoring equity he possesses with his legs isn’t close to that of Josh Allen or Jalen Hurts.

Last season, in Year 1 of the Todd Monken era, Jackson completed more than 22 passes on just three occasions and never once connected 25 times in a game. I’d argue that the three QBs closest to him in ADP (Patrick Mahomes, Hurts, and C.J. Stroud) all come with fail- safe components. If Hurts were to get dinged up, he has the pass-catcher pedigree to make up for it. If Mahomes or Stroud lost a primary weapon, their stock wouldn’t crumble.

If Jackson lost one of his weapons or suffered an injury that tied him to the pocket, he could fall outside of my top 10 in the weekly rankings.

Jackson is a great player and I don’t doubt Baltimore will have a good season – but the QBs ranked ahead of him, and just behind him for that matter, are counted on, in my opinion, more by their specific teams. In turn, that gives them a fantasy profile I trust more at cost than spending an early-to-mid fourth round pick on the man they call Action.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Let’s not complicate things in a major way – there are two primary ways to truly matter as a fantasy signal-caller.

1. Rush at an above-average rate
2. Throw at an above-average rate

Brock Purdy did neither last season and, thanks to outlier levels of efficiency, finished as the QB6 on a per-game basis. For a player that cleared 20 rushing yards once during the regular season, that profile almost never returns positive fantasy numbers, let alone numbers that put you ahead of most of your league at the position.

• Fantasy finishes inside of the top 12: nine
• Weeks finishing inside the top 12 in pass attempts: Zero

You can bet on Purdy being the greatest pocket passer ever to play this game and repeat his 2023 (it was a top-10 all-time season in terms of yards per attempt, doing it in consecutive seasons would short-circuit my computer) or you can not.

I prefer to not.

His cost isn’t as prohibitive now as it was in early drafts, but I have no hesitation in taking Kyler Murray over him, a scenario that arises in drafts. I also wouldn’t blink if you wanted to draft Jared Goff (my sleeper MVP pick) or Tua Tagovailoa over him, preferring their passing ceilings over that of Purdy’s.

Heck, you could make the case that either of the star rookies (Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams) have a path to outproducing San Francisco’s signal-caller. You won your league because of Purdy in 2023 – I think he’s more likely to cost you the chance to do damage than to be the conductor on a championship squad in 2024.

Fantasy Football Do Not Draft: Running Backs

De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Fantasy seasons are often determined by outliers, and rostering one of them is great. However, the next season is where those players are dangerous.

Can the player repeat their performance? What does regression look like? How different will the role and ADP be after a surprisingly productive season?

The best fantasy football managers will take this on a case-by-case basis. Brock Purdy is a quarterback who will require a deep dive, and we’ll get there with time, but no player stokes the regression flames entering 2024 quite like De’Von Achane.

Working on some running back #FantasyFootball analysis …

Borderline impossible to overstate what Achane did last season.

(fantasy stats / expected fantasy stats) pic.twitter.com/QzkGiCzji7

— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) July 14, 2024

In terms of expectation, what Achane did (minimum 100 carries) last season was as impressive as anything we’ve seen in the past 15 seasons. Repeating that level of efficiency is close to impossible to do and even harder to project, making the Achane outlook one based on trying to get an understanding of two things:

• His 2024 role
• How much to regress his per-touch numbers

Over the past decade, the 10 most efficient RB seasons have been followed up by a campaign that saw them produce at 78.3% the rate of the year prior. That would still put Miami’s sophomore at 20.7% over expectation, a strong number, but a meaningful decline from the 54.2% rate he gave managers in 2023.

If we extend Achane’s numbers to 17 games and give him an extra two touches per game (about as high as I’m willing to go given the variety of options on this offense and the addition of Jaylen Wright), he projects for a tick under 16 PPR PPG, a number that would have ranked him as RB11 in 2023.

Does Achane’s production fade if he plays all 17 games? Do defenses enter 2024 more prepared to stop this Dolphins running attack? What happens if the game script doesn’t play in Miami’s favor as often as it did last season (third-most time spent last season with a double-digit lead)?

There are more paths for failure than profit when you take Achane in the second round. If you’re in a deeper league, I don’t mind selecting the QB1 in your rankings ahead of him.

The case can be made for Brandon Aiyuk if you’re looking for a receiver, and even if you want to select a running back, the projectable floor of Henry, now with the Baltimore Ravens, is more appealing to me at this point in the draft.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers

“We’ll see. Philosophically, no matter who the runner is, we like to platoon those guys, whether it’s two guys or three … it allows them to stay fresh throughout the duration of the season … it’s a violent position.”

That’s a logical thought and a good reminder that head coaches aren’t fantasy managers. Matt LaFleur gave that answer this offseason when addressing his backfield and has me treading with caution in regards to Green Bay’s starter, especially after they added depth in the draft by way of MarShawn Lloyd.

Thanks to his massive 2022 season (2,053 yards and 12 TDs), the perception of Josh Jacobs is a little more favorable than his résumé suggests is wise. That was the only season of his career in which he’s played every game and rack up as much as 4.9 yards per carry (he’s been held under 4.1 in his three most recent seasons outside of that outlier year).

MORE: Try PFN’s “Who Should I Draft?” Tool

With quotes like that from LaFleur, depth at the position, and a developing passing game — this isn’t the profile of a mid-fourth-round pick.

Isiah Pacheco and James Cook are being drafted in the same range, two options that I have ranked a tier ahead of Jacobs. Joe Mixon isn’t exciting, but, for me, he’s essentially the same player and is going 12-15 picks later.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals’ decision to select rookie running back Trey Benson in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft should be a concern for a veteran running back in the final year of his contract.

This suggestion isn’t meant to be an indictment against Conner, who has been very productive over his three years with the Cardinals.

Conner’s Fantasy Production With the Cardinals

• 2023: 1,040 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 165 receiving yards, 9 total TDs (RB18)
• 2022: 782 rushing yards, 46 receptions, 300 receiving yards, 8 total TDs (RB19)
• 2021: 752 rushing yards, 37 receptions, 375 receiving yards, 18 total TDs (RB5)

Oddly enough, Conner logged his most efficient year as a ball carrier in 2023 at 5.0 yards per carry. These trends of recent production and the reports around Cardinals training camp of Conner being the leading man to start the year are helping the veteran back rise up draft boards.

Yet, I still have my doubts that Conner will finish the year as the definitive feature back in this offense. Benson is an explosive three-down back in his own right, who could easily push for more work as the season progresses — if not take the leading role outright by season’s end.

Conner is a good player who should be a nice starting option early in the year, but don’t be surprised if he becomes a bit of a disappointment in the second half of the season when the fantasy playoffs roll around.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

Those fantasy managers who were skeptical that the Buffalo Bills would ever truly feature a running back with Josh Allen around got their answer.

James Cook had a great season last year, posting 1,122 rushing yards with an additional 445 receiving yards on 44 receptions and six total TDs. Those numbers were good for an RB12 fantasy finish in full-PPR formats.

Cook’s rushing and receiving yardage at the RB position both ranked inside the top 10, and he was among the top backs in the league with 5.6 yards per touch, which is impressive considering his above-average volume last season.

Yet, Cook’s usage in the red zone — and particularly inside the 5-yard line — is worth mentioning when trying to determine if he can repeat his fantasy production from a season ago. He actually saw seven fewer carries from inside the 5-yard line than Latavius Murray. Additionally, Allen had 14 carries of his own from this range last year.

This is where I mention the addition of rookie running back Ray Davis this year, a very physical runner with great contact balance and burst.

Will Cook be the leading ball carrier again for the Bills in 2024? Yes, I believe so. Still, Allen’s presence and a potential upgrade at the RB2 spot on the roster could limit Cook’s fantasy upside this season.

Fantasy Football Do Not Draft: Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Brandon Aiyuk may not be happy with the San Francisco 49ers, but Adam Schefter has reported that the team does not intend to move him. As long as that is the case, my fading of Deebo Samuel remains intact.

My concern isn’t talent. Samuel is a uniquely gifted weapon that gives this offense a dimension few have. However, his being dangerous to defenses and consistent for fantasy managers aren’t the same thing.

We know the value of his rushing attempts can be sporadic, and there’s no reason to think that changes in his age-28 season. In 2021, he averaged 1.43 points per rushing attempt, a rate that sits at 1.14 (down 20.3%) since.

When it comes to the receiver version of his profile, there is no denying that Brock Purdy has eyes for Aiyuk over him. Despite an aDOT that is 95.8% higher than that of Samuel, Aiyuk has a higher catch rate (69.9% to 66.4%) when working with the 49ers starting quarterback.

You’re passing on all the elite quarterbacks/tight ends, one of the favorites to lead the league in touchdowns (Derrick Henry), and target monsters (Michael Pittman Jr. and Aiyuk) to acquire Samuel this season.

I’ll pass.

Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last season was great, there are just no two ways about that (79-1,255-13). But, have we overcorrected for a collective miss?

How much different is Mike Evans’ situation this season than last? Sure, he has a year of reps with Baker Mayfield, but he’s a year older and the orchestrator of what made this offense reasonably potent last year is now the head coach of the Carolina Panthers.

Every Mike Evans regular season TD from 2023-24: pic.twitter.com/KeM5Gj8A3w

— Carter Donnick (@CDonnick1) July 23, 2024

Dave Canales sprinkled pixie dust on Geno Smith in 2022 and did the same to Mayfield in 2023. Now he’s out of town — why is Evans’ ADP 53 picks higher than 12 months ago? We, as an industry, probably underestimate his raw talent to some degree, but 4+ rounds?

Mayfield punched above his weight last season (career highs in passing yards and touchdowns), but even in a good season, he was spotty when throwing to the end zone. He ranked below league average in touchdown rate, passer rating, and completion percentage when inside the 20-yard line – and yet, Evans thrived.

Last 15 Seasons: Most Red Zone PPG, Season 10 Or Later

• 2023 Evans: 5.34 PPG
• 2015 Brandon Marshall: 4.79 PPG
• 2009 Randy Moss: 4.17 PPG

Evans’ rate from last season is 11.5% ahead of the field, and those players are the only three to average even 3.5 PPG over that stretch. What Evans accomplished in 2023 was amazing if you had him, but I think you’re making a mistake in chasing it in Round 3 this season.

Fantasy Football Do Not Draft: Tight End

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Like the Jackson fade, this is more of a structure thing. If I’m spending a late-second/early third-round pick on a onesie position, I want to be confident that said player has a level of fantasy upside that we have yet to see.

Travis Kelce is great, but his best football is pretty clearly behind him. He averaged a career-low 1.83 PPR points per target in 2023, and while he always seems to have plenty of gas in the tank during the NFL playoffs (32-355-3 during the Super Bowl run last year), the same cannot be said for crunch time during the fantasy season.

• Top 5 finishes: 3
• Top-12 finishes: 7
• Finishes outside of the Top 12: 7
• Finishes as TE20 or worse: 5 (doesn’t include one DNP)

That’s Kelce’s resume over the past three seasons from Weeks 13-17. As Kansas City manages his body, he’s been just as likely to finish outside of the top 12 as inside it and hasn’t been better than TE20 22.7% of the time.

I’m sorry, but that’s unacceptable. It’s also something that I have a hard time seeing reverse for a player that will be 35 when that stretch approaches this season. There’s simply too much talent at the position now to justify spending this sort of capital – Mark Andrews is available 2+ rounds later if you want a veteran and Jake Ferguson 5+ rounds later if you want to be attached to a pass-centric offense.