The Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 46) have firm control of the NFC South and now face the fading New Orleans Saints, who just fired Dennis Allen after a loss to the Carolina Panthers. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game.
Below are my final picks for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 7, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise. If you’re looking for other games, check out our final NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
Pick: No Turnovers Committed (+1000 at DraftKings)
We generally offer our leans on bets that are in the neighborhood of coin flips in this space, and I think that’s the best way to approach betting on a full slate. That said, I always have a few long shots on my card as a fail-safe — I don’t bet enough on these bets to dent my bankroll, but as I come across options like this, I bet a fractional unit on it, understanding that there is researched upside for it to cover a handful of bets should it come through.
Keep reading, and you’ll see that I expect this to be a one-sided game. Part of that is the injuries on the New Orleans side.
Saint aDOT leaders this season
- Rashid Shaheed: 17.6 yards
- Mason Tipton: 12.9 yards
- Bub Means: 11.3 yards
- Chris Olave: 10.3 yards
Three of those players aren’t going to be active this week, and the other saw 77.8% of his targets come less than 10 yards downfield earlier this season in his only career game as a featured target.
Since the start of 2023, Derek Carr’s interception rate on balls thrown deep down field is 4.7%, but I’m projecting a more conservative script based on the tools available to him and that makes me more interested in his 0.9% interception rate on all other passes.
On the other hand, we have Kirk Cousins and a fully healthy group of pass catchers at his disposal. This season, his interception rate is essentially chopped in half when his team is leading (1.4%) from when that is not the case (2.7%). Atlanta ranks 22nd in pass rate over expectation this season, a trend that points at potentially a low volume/conservative game plan for this game.
Interceptions, of course, are not the only way to turn the ball over, but it is the primary source of giveaways. There are seven teams who, through nine weeks, have yet to lose a fumble, and these are two of them.
Both Atlanta and New Orleans rank below average in pressure rate, which leads me to believe that both teams won’t be forced to operate in a compromised position, thus allowing them to avoid dangerous situations.
This line for this exact bet is pretty consistent across all games on the slate, making me think that the sportsbooks simply post odds for this exotic option without much thought—I’m OK with that!
Pick: Falcons -3.5
Maybe it’s noise, maybe it’s not, but it’s a trend I believe in for this specific spot, so I’m going to share – do with it what you will:
Divisional Home Underdogs, Cover Rates
- 2023-24: 37.5%
- 2020-22: 55.9%
Divisional games are typically handicapped as closer games, the thought being that these teams are uniquely familiar with one another, and that should result in a competitive game (the old “you can throw the records out when” narrative that we hear far too often). But, recently, the gap between the haves and have-nots has expanded, so when sportsbooks label a team in such a spot as a home underdog, you’re wise to pay attention.
My working theory is that, as usual, the public is behind the books. That casual bettors get a home underdog in a divisional game and blindly take them because they assume it’ll be a one-score game in the final five minutes, and they want the security of having the points.
ELITE route runner.
4th down TD. pic.twitter.com/v1oTMwmrcJ
— BroTalk (6-3) (@BKsquared7) October 7, 2024
The Saints are a dumpster fire right now, losers of seven straight and fresh off of firing their head coach, while the Falcons, since Week 4, rank eighth best in offensive success rate, seventh in third down conversion percentage, sixth in yards per play, and fifth in points per drive.
Atlanta was lucky to win the first meeting with New Orleans this season (58-yard FG with two seconds left), but that was an eternity ago in football years.
Falcons vs. Saints Week 10 Promo Codes
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Falcons vs. Saints Game Stats and Insights
Atlanta Falcons
Team: The Falcons are averaging 13.8 plays per game of 10+ yards, sixth-most in the league and up 11% from a season ago.
QB: Football can be such a complicated game, but it can also be remarkably simple. Over his past two games, when Cousins has stayed in the pocket, he’s been as good as anyone in the league: 42-of-53 for 498 yards, seven touchdowns, and zero interceptions (145.4 passer rating).
Offense: Despite having a strong running game, no team runs play-action nearly as rarely as the Falcons (8.3% of offensive plays; the Dallas Cowboys rank 31st at 10.6%).
Defense: The Falcons own the lowest sack rate in the league (2.7% of opponent dropbacks; league average: 7.1%).
Fantasy: Darnell Mooney averaged 735 receiving yards per 17 games entering 2024 and had a career-high of four touchdown receptions in a season — through nine weeks, he has 588 receiving yards and has caught five touchdown passes.
Betting: The Falcons are 7-3 ATS (70%) in their past 10 divisional road games (2-0 ATS this season with over tickets cashing in both of those instances).
New Orleans Saints
Team: The Saints have lost seven straight games, their longest skid of the 2000s. Three of those losses have come by a field goal or less.
QB: Carr threw five touchdown passes on 39 attempts through Week 2 — he’s thrown four touchdown passes on 120 attempts since.
Offense: Since Week 3, the Saints are the sixth-worst offense in the league in terms of yards per play.
Defense: The Saints have the sixth-lowest opponent passer rating against (80.2, league average: 91.5).
Fantasy: Three times this season has a running back carried the rock 10 times while seeing at least eight targets in consecutive games:
- Alvin Kamara (Weeks 4-6)
- De’Von Achane (Weeks 8-9)
- Alvin Kamara (Weeks 8-9)
Betting: The Saints have seen their past five divisional home games finish more than 16 points off of the spread (each of the past three by more than 20 points).