My same game parlay picks for the early kick on Sunday paint a pretty picture for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Fantasy football managers need to make sure their lineups are set before kickoff, and if you want access to this high-upside bet, make sure to lock it in sooner rather than later!
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Odds
- Spread
Jaguars -3 - Moneyline
Falcons +145, Jaguars -175 - Total
42.5
We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with: answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire, and he/she is on the hook.
Trivia Question: Who was the Jaguars starting quarterback the last time they beat the Falcons?
I am not going to lie to you. Ever. I play every SGP I give out. Not for the same amount every time, understanding that different games carry different risk factors and a wide range of outcomes.
MORE: NFL Week 4 Betting Predictions
When factoring in odds, this SGP came together easier than anything I’ve produced up to this point. Whether that is scary or encouraging is up to you, but I’ll be invested in this train of thought in the betting and fantasy football markets.
Looking at implied team totals is something that not enough people do (there’s a reason I included them in my Week 4 Cheat Sheet, and every cheat sheet for that matter). Depending on where you look, the Jags are being projected for 23-24 points this week, and that’s the go zone for this passing game!
Since Thanksgiving, the Jags have scored at least 23 points six times. One of those was a 28-point blowout of the Texans, a game that saw statistical limitations due to a 21-0 halftime score, a level of domination that we don’t expect to see in this game. So, let’s take a look at the other five instances:
- ATS: 5-0
- Average coverage margin: 8.1
- Trevor Lawrence pass yards: 307.2
- Trevor Lawrence pass TDs: 3.2
- Top pass catcher, catches: 8.8
- Top pass catcher, yards: 115.6
Those averages are driving my analysis in this spot. The top pass catcher has cleared 75 yards in all five of those games, while Lawrence was north of 285 passing yards in four of five.
If you’re diving more into this specific matchup, I like it. The Falcons have ramped up their blitz rate (over 26% this season, up from their sub-17% rate a season ago), something that doesn’t scare me with Lawrence’s already short aDOT down 5.5% from last season.
Trevor Lawrence is 2nd in the NFL with 9 Big Time Throws (BTT). #Jaguars
Coincidentally, his receivers lead the league in drops with 9!
pic.twitter.com/RXvqXWfHdj— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) September 26, 2023
Blitzes should mean a lot of short passes from Lawrence, passes that carry a high level of efficiency and thus drive up his passing yardage. With blitzes come single coverage down the field, and, say what you will about Calvin Ridley’s struggles right now, but his being on an island with a defender is intriguing.
How did I land on Ridley as their top receiver? I’m partial to what offenses show early in games — the scripted portion — and Ridley has led this team in targets through two possessions in all three games this season. He’s being written into the game plan, and if that continues, the upside is massive.
If you want to juice up the odds, I’m here for you. Four times this season has a player seen at least seven targets against the Falcons, and they’ve combined for four touchdown catches. On the Ridley side of this matchup, he has scored in 65% of his career games with 75 receiving yards, averaging 0.85 scores in those games.
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- Trivia Answer: David Garrard (2007)
- Same Game Parlay Pick: Jaguars (-3), Trevor Lawrence 250+ passing yards, Calvin Ridley 75+ yards
- Odds: +550 (at DraftKings)*
*Add Ridley anytime TD to the mix: +950 (at DraftKings)
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