While this matchup features two teams loaded with highly talented skill position players, both the Falcons and Jaguars are coming off Week 3 losses in which their offenses struggled.
For the first game of the day, which Falcons vs. Jaguars player prop bets are we targeting? Our betting team gives their favorite bets for the marquee players in this one.
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Top Atlanta Falcons vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Bets To Target
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Desmond Ridder Player Props
- Passing Yards: 189.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +200/Under -270)
- Pass Completions: 19.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
- Pass Attempts: 28.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +150/Under -195)
Blewis: The Falcons are a run-first team under head coach Arthur Smith, with their -11.4% pass rate over expectation being the lowest in the NFL. This is driven not only by their philosophy but their offensive personnel, as they have an elite running game and an inexperienced quarterback in Desmond Ridder.
If you believe the Falcons are going to run away with this one, then Ridder’s unders would be an easy play. In that scenario, the Falcons’ run game would carry them offensively, but they’re going against a Jaguars run defense that is second in success rate so far this season.
The Falcons have trailed at the half two weeks in a row, and Ridder has gone over his pass attempts line for this game in both of those contests. I’m betting on him going over 28.5 attempts for the third game in a row.
Pick: Desmond Ridder over 28.5 pass attempts (-112 at FanDuel)
Bijan Robinson Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 65.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Rush Attempts: 14.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
- Receiving Yards: 25.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over -166/Under +130)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +100
- First Touchdown Scorer: +600
Blewis: Considering the Falcons are three-point underdogs and Bijan Robinson has only gone over this number once in three games so far this season, his rush attempts line at 14.5 seems high.
I’m on the Jaguars giving points here, which means a negative game script for the Falcons in which they’ll have to throw the ball to catch up. That means fewer carries for Robinson, who had just 10 in their loss that week, in which they were trailing the entire game after the Lions’ first score.
Pick: Bijan Robinson under 14.5 rush attempts (-130 at DraftKings)
Drake London Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 45.5 (Over -110/Under -120
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over -135/Under +105)
- Longest Reception: 19.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +220
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1300
Blewis: After not having a single catch in Week 1, Drake London recorded eight receptions for 98 yards in the past two games combined. Those came in two games in which the Falcons trailed by double-digits entering the fourth quarter.
Perhaps London’s greatest strength as a receiver is taking advantage of his size and strength at the position to make contested catches downfield. So far this season, he has a contested catch of at least 20 yards downfield in consecutive games, which trails only Chris Olave and Amon-Ra St. Brown. And that’s in a run-first offense.
His longest reception prop is fairly low, and he has gone over this number two weeks in a row. In a game in which they’re underdogs yet again, let’s see if he can make it three in a row.
Pick: Drake London longest reception over 19.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Kyle Pitts Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 33.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over +124/Under -160)
- Longest Reception: 15.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +270
- First Touchdown Scorer: +1400
Blewis: It’s hard to ever have confidence in taking the over for any Kyle Pitts player prop. But if these were the lines for last week, you would have gone 3-0 betting the over for each of the non-TD props.
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Jaguars had allowed the second-most targets to tight ends. There’s plus money on the over for his receptions prop; let’s take a gamble here.
Pick: Kyle Pitts over 3.5 receptions (+124 at DraftKings)
Trevor Lawrence Player Props
- Passing Yards: 239.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Pass Completions: 23.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
- Pass Attempts: 33.5 (Over -125/Under -110)
- Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +130/Under -166)
Blewis: Trevor Lawrence has had a disappointing start to his third season so far and faces a Falcons defense that is currently seventh in success rate defending the pass. But they haven’t faced a quarterback as talented as Lawrence yet, and this same defense gave up three passing touchdowns to Jordan Love in Week 2.
I’m banking on the Jaguars fixing their red-zone struggles this week, and that includes Lawrence throwing for a couple of touchdowns after having just three so far this season.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-115 at DraftKings)
Travis Etienne Player Props
- Rushing Yards: 68.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Rush Attempts: 16.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
- Receiving Yards: 18.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
- Receptions: 3.5 (Over +135/Under -175)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -110
- First Touchdown Scorer: +500
Blewis: Concerns about rookie RB Tank Bigsby cutting into Travis Etienne’s usage were greatly overstated, as Etienne has 40 more carries after three games.
Etienne has gone over both his rushing yards line and rush attempts line for this matchup in all but one game so far this season — their Week 2 loss against the Kansas City Chiefs. I lean toward the over on both of those player props for this game but don’t feel particularly strong about it.
Leans: Travis Etienne over 67.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel), over 16.5 rush attempts (+100 at DraftKings)
Calvin Ridley Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 64.5 (Over -130/Under +100)
- Receptions: 5.5 (Over +124/Under -160)
- Longest Reception: 22.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +140
- First Touchdown Scorer: +750
Blewis: Only six wide receivers have a greater red-zone target share than Calvin Ridley so far this season. The problem is the Jaguars have been extremely inefficient in the red zone. In the last two weeks, they have converted just 20% of their red-zone trips into touchdowns. Not good!
But there has to be some positive regression eventually, especially with a quarterback as talented as Lawrence. In a revenge game against his former team, let’s roll the dice with Ridley getting into the end zone.
Pick: Calvin Ridley anytime touchdown (+140 at DraftKings)
Christian Kirk Player Props
- Receiving Yards: 51.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
- Receptions: 4.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
- Longest Reception: 19.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
- Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +190
- First Touchdown Scorer: +900
Soppe: The Falcons have ramped up their blitz rate (over 26% this season, up from a sub-17% rate a season ago), something that doesn’t scare me with Lawrence’s already short aDOT down 5.5% from last season. The blitz-heavy game plan can limit efficiency on the ground while taking away the time it takes for a deep shot to develop.
Zay Jones leads this receiver core in aDOT, but he will be inactive for this game. Ridley is likely to pick up his role in the passing game while Christian Kirk, whose aDOT is 27.2% lower than that of Ridley, continues to soak up the shorter looks.
I love the Jaguars’ passing game in this spot, and Kirk profiles as the beneficiary from a volume perspective.
Pick: Christian Kirk over 4.5 receptions (-115 at DraftKings)