Oscar Piastri walks into Abu Dhabi this weekend with the weight of a season on his shoulders, as for months, he looked like the driver who was unbeatable, but now, he is in the most complicated championship scenario of his young career. The title win is still possible if everything falls perfectly in place for him in Abu Dhabi, but things do not look very favourable at the moment.
Piastri has been one of the standout names of modern F1, and his rapid rise has built him an enormous fan base across the sport, as the Australian entered F1 in 2023 after winning lower-tier F3 and F2 championships in back-to-back years and quickly proved he had the talent to fight the biggest names in the championship.
Abu Dhabi Title Mathematics: What Oscar Piastri Needs To Become World Champion?
Going into the final round, Piastri sits third in the standings, 16 points behind teammate Lando Norris and four points behind Max Verstappen, who is aiming for his fifth consecutive title. If Piastri wins the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, he becomes champion only if Norris finishes sixth or lower. If he finishes second, he needs Norris to finish outside the top-10 and Verstappen to finish fourth or worse. Anything less than second and the title win will be beyond reach.
Recent results suggest the odds are not in Piastri’s favor, as Norris has finished outside the top six only four times this season. Meanwhile, Verstappen has won five of the last eight races and is historically dominant in Abu Dhabi, winning four in a row (2020-23).
There is still a glimmer of hope, but the margins are razor-thin as Piastri will need one of the best drives of his career while also relying on setbacks for both of his title rivals. McLaren cannot afford a single strategic error after the costly Qatar blunder that allowed Verstappen to steal the victory and wipe out what should have been an advantage for the Australian in his title fight.
How Piastri Went From Championship Favorite To Chasing The Leaders
For most of the season, Piastri was outstanding, and after a messy start at his home race in Melbourne, he found an unstoppable rhythm. His third win of the season in Saudi Arabia thrust him into the championship lead, further helping him build momentum that seemed untouchable.
Between Round 4 and the summer break, Piastri secured three wins and five podiums in 13 races, thanks to his laser-focused consistency, which contrasted sharply with Norris’s strong pace but frequent mistakes that prevented him from staying close.
Everything flipped after Zandvoort, as at the Dutch Grand Prix, Norris retired with an oil leak, and Piastri collected his last victory of the season so far, which stretched the lead to 34 points, and what followed after was the turning point.
From Monza to Las Vegas, Norris came alive while Piastri struggled as the Australian simply could not extract the performance he needed due to many different conditions. Azerbaijan became the lowest point of the year, where he crashed in qualifying, jumped the race start, and then crashed again on the opening lap of the race.
Norris did not win the race in Baku but took a chunk out of the points gap, and then came Vegas, where Norris and Piastri were both disqualified for excessive floor wear. Without that, Piastri would have entered Qatar only 18 points behind Norris instead of 24, and although McLaren was furious, the damage had already been done.
Qatar was a rough one as Piastri had dominated all weekend, winning the sprint and taking pole for the main race, and he looked untouchable yet again. Then came the safety car on Lap 7 and McLaren’s outrageous decision not to pit, which forced Piastri to complete all remaining pit stops under full racing speed, and handed Verstappen a free win and swung the points balance dramatically.
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No matter what happens this Sunday, the 24-year-old has proven that he belongs in this title fight as he has shown maturity beyond his age, and most of the paddock believes his time will come, whether it is now or later.
For Abu Dhabi, the task is incredibly tough as Piastri needs to win or finish second, and then also hope that the two biggest drivers of this era finish below expectations. He cannot control what Norris and Verstappen do, and that may be the most frustrating part of all.
The F1 world will now watch to see whether Piastri’s extraordinary campaign ends in shock triumph or a near miss that only sets up for a stronger return in 2026.