Early NFL Week 12 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Thanksgiving and Sunday Chaos Surrounding Justin Fields, Joe Mixon, and Others

If you're betting on 2022 NFL games -- whether props, point spreads, or moneylines -- here are the early NFL Week 12 predictions and picks.

Here’s an early look at our NFL Week 12 predictions and picks for all 16 games, beginning with three Thanksgiving contests. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Week 12 Predictions and Picks

Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.

What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.

With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.

Detroit Lions (+10) vs. Buffalo Bills

  • Date: Thursday, Nov. 24
  • Start time: 12:30 p.m. ET

The Lions are riding their first three-game winning streak in five years. Jamaal Williams has 12 rushing scores, topping his career high of (checks notes) three. And somehow, this formerly 1-6 franchise is in the thick of the NFC playoff race.

DraftKings Promo - Bet $5, Win $150
Want to win a free $150 on the NFL this season? As a new user on DraftKings Sportsbook, you can bet $5 and win $150 if your team wins!

Of course, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Buffalo should take this one. The ascendance of rookie James Cook adds a needed dimension to their backfield, while Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox have stepped up. While their supposedly elite defense continues to underperform, Buffalo has enough firepower to vanquish Detroit by 4-8 points.

Against-the-spread prediction: Lions
Moneyline winner: Bills

Dallas Cowboys (-8) vs. New York Giants

  • Date: Thursday, Nov. 24
  • Start time: 4:30 p.m. ET

After what we just witnessed in Minnesota — a 40-3 shellacking — who would dare bet against the Cowboys? Not me. No way. Not gonna happen.

As I’ve written repeatedly, the Giants are the best one-dimensional team in the league. Yes, they have an improved defense and overachieving passing attack (which would take a hit if Wan’Dale Robinson can’t suit up). But much of their game plan revolves around Saquon Barkley.

I shared last week that Barkley was on pace to hit about 500 touches this season if New York went deep into the playoffs. On the PFN Facebook page, I warned readers to sell high while they still could. The fact is, the Giants don’t have much of a chance in this one. Maybe they’ll keep it within 20.

Maybe.

Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
Moneyline winner: Cowboys

Minnesota Vikings (-3) vs. New England Patriots

  • Date: Thursday, Nov. 24
  • Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET

Ah, the Thanksgiving nightcap. I love Minnesota rebounding in this one. While the Patriots shut down Zach Wilson and the Jets’ subpar backfield, the Vikings are at another level (despite what we witnessed on Sunday).

Keep tabs on New England’s offensive line injury woes, as well as a potentially overworked Rhamondre Stevenson playing on a short week. He’s averaged only 3.4 yards per carry in his last four games and topped out at 101 carries in college. I’m wondering if he’s built to handle a heavy NFL load for a full season.

Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
Moneyline winner: Vikings

Miami Dolphins (-12) vs. Houston Texans

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

On to Sunday! Miami’s coming off a bye week, while Houston just got shut down by the suddenly intriguing Commanders.

MORE: NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 12

I’m not overthinking this one and am advising all bettors to share in my not overthinking. The Dolphins are flying high. While their defense remains highly vulnerable, Davis Mills probably isn’t the guy to capitalize.

Against-the-spread prediction: Dolphins
Moneyline winner: Dolphins

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

I’m going to punt on this one for now. Not entirely. But longtime readers know that sometimes we don’t have enough intel early in the week to make a hardened decision. Travis Etienne Jr. is the X-factor in a Jags offense that can score. They’ve hit 17+ points in all but one game.

For now, I’m comfortable hedging on a narrow Baltimore victory. But Jacksonville is a team on the rise, and I like how they match up against a Ravens defense that should regress after shutting down the anemic Panthers.

Against-the-spread prediction: Jaguars
Moneyline winner: Ravens

Washington Commanders (-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

I believe this line will move to five or even six points by Friday. Washington is on fire. No NFL division since the 2002 realignment has sent four teams to the playoffs. This year’s NFC East might. Washington should win this one by double digits, especially if Kyle Pitts’ knee injury proves serious.

Against-the-spread prediction: Commanders
Moneyline winner: Commanders

Cleveland Browns (+3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

A fascinating game on the eve of Deshaun Watson’s return. If the Browns lose, they’ll be 3-8 and nearly out of the playoff hunt. But assuming all their core guys are healthy (looks good at the moment), I think they can run the ball effectively against a defense that’s surprisingly yielded 4.5 yards per carry — worse than last year, and a far cry from the Bucs’ 3.6 mark two years ago.

Against-the-spread prediction: Browns
Moneyline winner: Browns

New York Jets (-4) vs. Chicago Bears

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

Everything hinges on the status of Justin Fields’ shoulder injury. Fields can swing this spread seven points or more. He’s the engine of an offense that, without him, probably can’t score more than 10 points against these Jets.

MORE: Robert Saleh Owes It to New York Jets’ Locker Room To Bench Zach Wilson

Stay tuned, and for now, I’m leaning toward the Jets and their incredible defense, on the assumption Fields is held out for the 3-8 Bears.

Against-the-spread prediction: Jets
Moneyline winner: Jets

Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Denver Broncos

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

I was going to have strong words about whichever team lost the Broncos-Raiders battle on Sunday. And my words are: my goodness, what the heck happened?

How could Denver not overpower a defense giving up the second-most rushing touchdowns and seventh-most passing yards? At home? With their season on the line?

Carolina knows they’re rebuilding. They’re owning their development. That’s the team I want to bet on.

Against-the-spread prediction: Panthers
Moneyline winner: Panthers

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

If the Bengals changed their name to the Titans, this would be the Battle of the Titans. Instead, it’s a battle among titans, which essentially means the same thing, though in a way that seems more forced and amateurish.

Derrick Henry is leading the NFL in rushing attempts per game for the fourth straight season. Yes, the fourth. Meanwhile, Joe Mixon is dealing with a concussion, while Ja’Marr Chase could return.

So . . . grab a friend and keep four eyes on this betting line, because it could shift two or even three points in the coming days. For now, I’m all in on the Bengals delivering enough pain to Tennessee’s secondary to counteract whatever pain Henry inflicts to Cincy’s defensive line.

Against-the-spread prediction: Bengals
Moneyline winner: Bengals

Arizona Cardinals (+3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET

Earlier on Monday, before the line was available, I advised “leaning toward Arizona” on the assumption the Chargers would be favored by “around two points.” With questions surrounding Kyler Murray, the line is actually three points. So I feel comfortable betting on the Cardinals on the assumption Murray has a better than 50/50 shot of returning.

Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
Moneyline winner: Cardinals

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 4:05 p.m. ET

Can Vegas make it two in a row? Unlikely, but possible. Much depends on whether Kenneth Walker III’s shocking letdown against Tampa Bay in his last outing (10 carries for 17 yards) was more about the Bucs stepping up rather than Walker slowing down.

Walker had 94 touches in his previous four games since taking over for the injured Rashaad Penny. So perhaps the bye week will do him good. He’s really the key in this game; if Walker can run wild against the Raiders’ porous defense, then advantage Seattle.

Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
Moneyline winner: Seahawks

Kansas City Chiefs (-14) vs. Los Angeles Rams

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

When this article published Monday morning, there was no available line for this game. I wrote, “I’m predicting that the Chiefs will be 14-point favorites against the deflated defending champions.” Sure enough, when the lines came out, the Chiefs were 14-point favorites. If you play in a Survivor pool and still have K.C. available, what a great week to start them.

MORE: Kansas City Chiefs Are Dreadnoughts in 30–27 Win Over Los Angeles Chargers

Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
Moneyline winner: Chiefs

San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

Surely, the Saints can keep pace, right? Except that assumes Andy Dalton can keep pace, and I’m not convinced he can.

The 49ers are elite or nearly elite against the run and the pass, and their offense is one of the most explosive in the league. Let’s roll with San Francisco, assuming they score enough in the first half to put the Saints on their heels, forcing New Orleans out of their game plan.

Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Green Bay Packers

  • Date: Sunday, Nov. 27
  • Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET

Can Green Bay keep this one close? Philly’s looked too human the past three weeks, beginning with a surprisingly competitive contest against Houston. So yeah, Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, and Allen Lazard should do enough to put a scare in the Eagles, if not outright win.

Philadelphia is no longer to be feared, and the loss of Dallas Goedert clearly could be felt this past Sunday.

Against-the-spread prediction: Packers
Moneyline winner: Eagles

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Date: Monday, Nov. 28
  • Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET

I’m shocked this line isn’t five points or more. The Colts look poised to finish the season strong with Matt Ryan back at the helm and Jonathan Taylor at least healthy and churning out touches. The defense is the key, and I believe they can keep Pittsburgh’s youthful offense in check.

Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
Moneyline winner: Colts

FEATURED
PFN NEWSLETTER

Every day, get free NFL updates sent straight to your inbox!