Early NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks Against the Spread: Running in Justin Fields of Gold

    If you're betting on 2022 NFL games -- whether props, point spreads, or moneylines -- here are our early NFL Week 10 predictions and picks.

    Here’s an early look at our NFL Week 10 predictions and picks for all 14 games, with the Bengals, Jets, Patriots, and Ravens on byes. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread, as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

    NFL Week 10 Predictions and Picks

    Each week of the NFL season features the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.

    What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.

    With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.

    Carolina Panthers (+2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons

    • Date: Thursday, Nov. 10
    • Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET

    Two weeks ago, these NFC South rivals played one of the season’s most thrilling games. But some people might not remember because neither squad has the national following to sustain such drama.

    The rematch could be equally compelling, as we don’t yet know which Carolina QB will start . . . or finish. We do know the Falcons’ RB triumvirate of Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, and Caleb Huntley are formidable, while Carolina’s ability to sustain drives — even against a subpar Falcons defense — remains suspect.

    I’ll be on the less mistake-prone Falcons coming off a tough home loss, but with the personnel to score 30+ again on the Panthers.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Falcons
    Moneyline winner: Falcons

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 9:15 a.m. ET

    I failed to grasp how good Seattle is until it was too late. They are clearly the team to beat in the NFC West, and that’s no disrespect to the stacked 49ers, which crushed these same Seahawks 27-7 in Week 2. But Seattle has a pretty favorable remaining schedule, and their offense and defense are clicking.

    In fact, Geno Smith is a contender for NFL MVP, while Kenneth Walker III (seven TDs in his last five games) has to be a frontrunner for NFL Rookie of the Year.

    Meanwhile, Tampa Bay looks broken. After losing five of six, they eked by the mostly hapless Rams on a last-second touchdown. Of course, we should never count out Tom Brady. However, how many times can we say “never count out Tom Brady” before it’s time to count him out?

    This year, the Bucs were supposed to compete for another Super Bowl, while Seattle seemingly was in rebuilding mode. Instead, these franchises are going in opposite directions. This battle in Munich will either solidify or alter this narrative.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Seahawks
    Moneyline winner: Seahawks

    New York Giants (-6.5) vs. Houston Texans

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    This point spread might have been much higher if Houston hadn’t played the Eagles so tough last Thursday. In fairness, the Texans have played every team tough and have actually led in the fourth quarter in four of their games.

    MORE: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings

    Both teams have been dreadful against the run. But in a face-off between Saquon Barkley and Dameon Pierce, I’m giving Barkley the edge, particularly with the more capable Daniel Jones at QB, and a better pass defense shutting down the easily shutdown-able Davis Mills.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Giants
    Moneyline winner: Giants

    Chicago Bears (-2.5) vs. Detroit Lions

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    Fear the Bears. Fear the Lions?

    One of those sentences ended with a question mark, for good reason. Justin Fields is finally playing like the “great” QB he appeared to be when Chicago drafted him last year. Who cares if he’s averaging only 147 passing yards and 1.1 passing TDs per game? He just broke the single-game record for most QB rushing yards. And Detroit doesn’t have enough answers on defense to stop him.

    Speaking of the Lions, this is not the same team that nearly defeated the Eagles in September. T.J. Hockenson is gone. DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds remain sidelined. D’Andre Swift hasn’t taken over a game since . . . well, since Week 1 against the Philly.

    Detroit will need to play nearly perfectly on offense and defense to prevail because Chicago is playing on another level.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Bears
    Moneyline winner: Bears

    Buffalo Bills (-7.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    I’m having a tough time with this point spread because as good as the Vikings have looked, we have to believe Buffalo will rebound from their stinging loss to the Jets. If CB Tre’Davious White returns, it would bring another needed asset to a Bills defense that oscillates between looking elite and human.

    In the end, I imagine Minnesota will keep it close. But Buffalo should take this one. Their hold on the AFC East lead might hinge on it.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Vikings
    Moneyline winner: Bills

    Miami Dolphins (-4) vs. Cleveland Browns

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    Let’s not overthink this one. Miami’s defense is a wreck. But they score like a Super Bowl contender. The acquisition of Jeff Wilson Jr. was brilliant, particularly given the lack of a true No. 3 receiver for Tua Tagovailoa. (Trent Sherfield has been sporadically solid; Cedrick Wilson Jr. has been mostly absent.)

    MORE: The AFC East Is Wide Open

    The Browns win primarily on the ground, although Amari Cooper is doing his best to help carry his team through the air. If David Njoku returns, this betting line might narrow to three points. Regardless, I’m not expecting Cleveland to keep pace. As incredible as Nick Chubb is, some quick strikes by Miami could limit his usefulness.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Dolphins
    Moneyline winner: Dolphins

    Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    What happened to the Chiefs on Sunday night? Why did Patrick Mahomes need 68 pass attempts to squeak past a team that needed only five completions to force overtime?

    I believe in adjustments, and Kansas City has to adjust quickly if they want to improve against the Jags. Travis Etienne Jr. is showing the world why Jacksonville traded away James Robinson. We’re likely to see the Chiefs lock in on Etienne and force Trevor Lawrence to make plays to keep pace.

    Lawrence remains mistake-prone, with 11 turnovers to his name. The Chiefs’ vaunted passing attack should find the end zone more against the frequently overmatched Jags than they did against the surprisingly effective Titans.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
    Moneyline winner: Chiefs

    Tennessee Titans (-2) vs. Denver Broncos

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    Once again, it’s Derrick Henry versus whatever team Tennessee is facing. Henry has 1,100 offensive yards or 46% of the Titans’ total offense. For context, Christian McCaffrey had “only” 40% of the Panthers’ total yards in his 2019 breakout campaign.

    Henry is leading what might be the most one-dimensional professional sports team in 50 years (specifically, Steve Carlton and the 1972 Phillies).

    Given his opponent this weekend, it stands to reason that Henry will continue to carry most of the load. The elite Broncos pass defense will do its part against a completely overmatched Titans aerial attack. As long as the overworked Henry can make it through the game, Tennessee should prevail.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Titans
    Moneyline winner: Titans

    Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 1 p.m. ET

    A fascinating contest featuring one of the best young QBs in the game. I believe in Kenny Pickett, particularly given how much offense he’s generated despite not having a functioning running game. In a lost season, it might be a matter of “when,” not “if,” Jaylen Warren gets more run over Najee Harris.

    For the Saints, can Alvin Kamara continue to work his magic? Because I’m not sold on Andy Dalton winning this one on the road. Due to various factors, Pittsburgh’s left a lot of potential points on the field. As Pickett gains experience, he should outplay Dalton, and I believe George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and Pat Freiermuth will each have solid days.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Steelers
    Moneyline winner: Steelers

    Las Vegas Raiders (-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 4.05 p.m. ET

    Do we have to bet on this game? Hey, if we can’t bet, it often means we haven’t done enough research.

    Knowing what we know now, the Raiders should salvage a victory. But it might not look pretty. Meanwhile, Sam Ehlinger doesn’t appear to be the answer at QB for the Colts, although he’s clearly still acclimating. And Jonathan Taylor remains a question mark for Week 10.

    MORE: Colts Fire Head Coach Frank Reich

    If the Raiders’ defense wasn’t so porous, I’d pick them to cover. Then again, if they had even a middling defense, they’d probably be favored by a dozen points or more.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Colts
    Moneyline winner: Raiders

    Green Bay Packers (+4.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

    Is the 30-year Packers era over? Brett Favre took over the starting QB job in 1992. He was then forced to hand it over to Aaron Rodgers. During this span, Green Bay has finished below .500 only four times and has never missed the playoffs more than two years in a row.

    I warned fantasy managers and bettors this summer that Rodgers was deeply overvalued. He’s never played without a clear-cut No. 1 WR — a guy he can trust on third-and-long, or even third-and-short.

    Despite its impressive young WR corps (that can’t stay healthy), this team looks headed toward a five- or six-win season. Maybe they’ll rebound. Maybe Rodgers still has what it takes to elevate his offense.

    For now, despite the tough road conditions, the Cowboys are the clear favorites to keep pace with the Eagles (and Giants) in the NFC East.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Cowboys
    Moneyline winner: Cowboys

    Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 4:25 p.m. ET

    It’s not generally wise to split a bet on such a narrow line. But I don’t see how the Rams can dominate in this one; their offense simply isn’t clicking beyond Cooper Kupp’s heroics. I also don’t see how Arizona can win; they’re a couple defensive upgrades away from containing proficient offenses.

    I believe the Rams will win something like 23-21. Two vastly underperforming teams trying to remain relevant. The defending champs win the tiebreaker, thanks to its high-end defensive playmakers.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Cardinals
    Moneyline winner: Rams

    San Francisco 49ers (-7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

    • Date: Sunday, Nov. 13
    • Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET

    As someone who drafted Justin Herbert in my fantasy league, I feel pained writing about this one. Even if Keenan Allen miraculously returns, it’s hard to imagine the Chargers keeping pace with a QB who still doesn’t look 100%.

    San Francisco could have Deebo Samuel back. Honestly, is there anything the Chargers can do to slow this team down? I don’t see it. Herbert could be mercifully pulled in the middle of the fourth quarter.

    Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
    Moneyline winner: 49ers

    Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) vs. Washington Commanders

    • Date: Monday, Nov. 14
    • Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET

    The 4-5 Commanders blew a 10-point, fourth-quarter lead against the Vikings. They failed to beat the Titans despite being first-and-goal at the opposing 2-yard line with 19 seconds left.

    But even if they’d been victorious in their two recent losses, Washington would still be in last place in the NFC East at 6-3. This is all the more remarkable given how two seasons ago, Washington won this division with a 7-9 record.

    The Eagles are averaging 28.1 points per game while giving up 16.9. Interestingly, that’s just over 11 points — not coincidentally on par with this betting line.

    As much as I want to say, “take the points,” if Philadelphia scores first, they’ll be the odds-on favorites to cover this lofty spread. I’m banking on an offensive outburst, not unlike when the Eagles hung 24 points in the second quarter when these teams met in Week 3.

    Against-the-spread prediction: Eagles
    Moneyline winner: Eagles

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